关于比赛设计在体育成功中的作用：对2022年FIFA世界杯北美，中美洲和加勒比地区资格的研究
On the role of tournament design in sporting success: A study of the North, Central American and Caribbean qualification for the 2022 FIFA World Cup
摘要：
参加世界杯决赛是几个国家共同的抱负。由于除了运气和技术，资格的概率取决于预选赛的设计，因此对这些比赛的研究构成了体育分析的一个组成部分。北美，中美洲和加勒比足球联合会（CONCACAF）于2019年7月宣布了2022年FIFA世界杯的新资格赛形式。然而，COVID-19疫情迫使组织者回归更传统的结构。本章分析了这一改革如何影响国家队获得资格的机会。研究发现，在球队实力固定的假设下，参加世界杯决赛圈的概率可以改变5个百分点以上。原始设计背后的想法是将参赛者分为两组，这是值得考虑的，因为最强和最弱的球队所进行的比赛的竞争力增加了。我们建议减轻急剧的非线性所造成的播种政策通过概率规则的类比NBA选秀彩票系统。
英文摘要：
Playing in the FIFA World Cup finals is an ambition shared by several nations. Since, besides luck and skill, the probability of qualification depends on the design of the qualifiers, the study of these competitions forms an integral part of sports analytics. The Confederation of North, Central America and Caribbean Association Football (CONCACAF) announced a novel qualifying format for the 2022 FIFA World Cup in July 2019. However, the COVID-19 pandemic forced the organisers to return to a more traditional structure. The present chapter analyses how this reform impacted the chances of the national teams to qualify. It is found that the probability of participating in the FIFA World Cup finals can change by more than 5 percentage points under the assumption of fixed strengths for the teams. The idea behind the original design, to divide the contestants into two distinct sets, is worth considering due to the increased competitiveness of the matches played by the strongest and the weakest teams. We recommend mitigating the sharp nonlinearity caused by the seeding policy via a probabilistic rule to the analogy of the NBA draft lottery system.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
