2020 - 2026年期间加利福尼亚州和USA的疫苗有效性和SARS CoV 2对照：一项建模研究
Vaccine efficacy and SARS CoV 2 control in California and USA during the session 2020 2026: A modeling study
摘要：
除了保持健康预防措施外，接种疫苗是预防SARS-CoV-2的唯一方法，尽管迄今为止还没有临床证明100%有效的疫苗。在现阶段，为了阻止这场大流行的碎片，专家们需要知道疫苗有效率阈值的影响，以及这种大流行在不同有效率的疫苗下可能持续多久。本文运用数学模型研究了大流行期间疫苗接种的重要性和疫苗有效率。我们模拟了一个五室数学模型，以分析加利福尼亚州和整个美国的大流行情景。我们考虑了辉瑞、Moderna、阿斯利康和强生四种疫苗，这些疫苗正被严格用于控制COVID-19大流行，此外还有两种特殊情况：一种疫苗的有效率为100%，另一种疫苗没有使用。加州的感染率和死亡率都很高。我们的模型表明，如果继续频繁接种辉瑞疫苗，加州的大流行疫情将在2023年的最后四分之一得到控制。在此期间，从开始免疫起将发生6波，病死率和治愈率分别为1.697%和98.30%。然而，根据所考虑的模型，这一时期可能会延长到2024年中期，届时将使用有效率较低的疫苗。疫苗越有效，患这种恶性感染的人就越少。虽然特定人群最初得到优先考虑，但需要大规模接种疫苗来控制疾病的传播。
英文摘要：
Besides maintaining health precautions, vaccination has been the only prevention from SARS-CoV-2, though no clinically proved 100% effective vaccine has been developed till date. At this stage, to withhold the debris of this pandemic, experts need to know the impact of the vaccine efficacy rate's threshold and how long this pandemic may extent with vaccines that have different efficacy rates. In this article, a mathematical model study has been done on the importance of vaccination and vaccine efficiency rate during an ongoing pandemic. We simulated a five compartment mathematical model to analyze the pandemic scenario in both California, and whole U.S. We considered four vaccines, Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca, and Johnson and Johnson, which are being used rigorously to control the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition with two special cases: a vaccine with 100% efficacy rate and no vaccine under use. Both the infection and death rates are very high in California. Our model suggests that the pandemic situation in California will be under control in the last quartile of the year 2023 if frequent vaccination is continued with the Pfizer vaccine. During this time, six waves will happen from the beginning of the immunization where the case fatality and recovery rates will be 1.697% and 98.30%, respectively. However, according to the considered model, this period might be extended to the mid of 2024 when vaccines with lower efficacy rates are used. The more effective a vaccine, the less people suffer from this malign infection. Although specific groups of people get prioritized initially, mass vaccination is needed to control the spread of the disease.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
