Modern neural networks have found to be miscalibrated in terms of confidence calibration, i.e., their predicted confidence scores do not reflect the observed accuracy or precision. Recent work has introduced methods for post-hoc confidence calibration for classification as well as for object detection to address this issue. Especially in safety critical applications, it is crucial to obtain a reliable self-assessment of a model. But what if the calibration method itself is uncertain, e.g., due to an insufficient knowledge base?
We introduce Bayesian confidence calibration - a framework to obtain calibrated confidence estimates in conjunction with an uncertainty of the calibration method. Commonly, Bayesian neural networks (BNN) are used to indicate a network's uncertainty about a certain prediction. BNNs are interpreted as neural networks that use distributions instead of weights for inference. We transfer this idea of using distributions to confidence calibration. For this purpose, we use stochastic variational inference to build a calibration mapping that outputs a probability distribution rather than a single calibrated estimate. Using this approach, we achieve state-of-the-art calibration performance for object detection calibration. Finally, we show that this additional type of uncertainty can be used as a sufficient criterion for covariate shift detection. All code is open source and available at https://github.com/EFS-OpenSource/calibration-framework.
ETH Zurich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）；Technical University Munich（慕尼黑工业大学）；Google（谷歌）
A set of novel approaches for estimating epistemic uncertainty in deep neural networks with a single forward pass has recently emerged as a valid alternative to Bayesian Neural Networks. On the premise of informative representations, these deterministic uncertainty methods (DUMs) achieve strong performance on detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) data while adding negligible computational costs at inference time. However, it remains unclear whether DUMs are well calibrated and can seamlessly scale to real-world applications - both prerequisites for their practical deployment. To this end, we fir…
University of Wuppertal（伍珀塔尔大学）；School of Mathematics and Natural Sciences（数学与自然科学学院）
The vast majority of uncertainty quantification methods for deep object detectors such as variational inference are based on the network output. Here, we study gradient-based epistemic uncertainty metrics for deep object detectors to obtain reliable confidence estimates. We show that they contain predictive information and that they capture information orthogonal to that of common, output-based uncertainty estimation methods like Monte-Carlo dropout and deep ensembles. To this end, we use meta classification and meta regression to produce confidence estimates using gradient metrics and other b…
Calibrated confidence estimates obtained from neural networks are crucial, particularly for safety-critical applications such as autonomous driving or medical image diagnosis. However, although the task of confidence calibration has been investigated on classification problems, thorough investigations on object detection and segmentation problems are still missing. Therefore, we focus on the investigation of confidence calibration for object detection and segmentation models in this chapter. We introduce the concept of multivariate confidence calibration that is an extension of well-known cali…
Fraunhofer Institute for Cognitive Systems IKS（弗劳恩霍夫认知系统研究所IKS）；Ruhr West University of Applied Sciences（鲁尔西应用科学大学）
Confidence calibration is a major concern when applying artificial neural networks in safety-critical applications. Since most research in this area has focused on classification in the past, confidence calibration in the scope of object detection has gained more attention only recently. Based on previous work, we study the miscalibration of object detection models with respect to image location and box scale. Our main contribution is to additionally consider the impact of box selection methods like non-maximum suppression to calibration. We investigate the default intrinsic calibration of obj…
Ruhr West University of Applied Sciences（鲁尔西部应用科学大学）；Visteon Electronics GmbH（伟世通电子有限公司）
Unbiased confidence estimates of neural networks are crucial especially for safety-critical applications. Many methods have been developed to calibrate biased confidence estimates. Though there is a variety of methods for classification, the field of object detection has not been addressed yet. Therefore, we present a novel framework to measure and calibrate biased (or miscalibrated) confidence estimates of object detection methods. The main difference to related work in the field of classifier calibration is that we also use additional information of the regression output of an object detecto…
The University of British Columbia（不列颠哥伦比亚大学）；Harvard Medical School（哈佛医学院）
Fully convolutional neural networks (FCNs), and in particular U-Nets, have achieved state-of-the-art results in semantic segmentation for numerous medical imaging applications. Moreover, batch normalization and Dice loss have been used successfully to stabilize and accelerate training. However, these networks are poorly calibrated i.e. they tend to produce overconfident predictions both in correct and erroneous classifications, making them unreliable and hard to interpret. In this paper, we study predictive uncertainty estimation in FCNs for medical image segmentation. We make the following co…
East China Normal University（华东师范大学）；Huashan Hospital, Fudan University（复旦大学附属华山医院）
Medical image segmentation is one of the fundamental problems for artificial intelligence-based clinical decision systems. Current automatic medical image segmentation methods are often failed to meet clinical requirements. As such, a series of interactive segmentation algorithms are proposed to utilize expert correction information. However, existing methods suffer from some segmentation refining failure problems after long-term interactions and some cost problems from expert annotation, which hinder clinical applications. This paper proposes an interactive segmentation framework, called inte…
Knowledge Media Institute, The Open University（开放大学知识媒体研究所）
Despite the great success of state-of-the-art deep neural networks, several studies have reported models to be over-confident in predictions, indicating miscalibration. Label Smoothing has been proposed as a solution to the over-confidence problem and works by softening hard targets during training, typically by distributing part of the probability mass from a `one-hot' label uniformly to all other labels. However, neither model nor human confidence in a label are likely to be uniformly distributed in this manner, with some labels more likely to be confused than others. In this paper we integr…
The prediction reliability of neural networks is important in many applications. Specifically, in safety-critical domains, such as cancer prediction or autonomous driving, a reliable confidence of model's prediction is critical for the interpretation of the results. Modern deep neural networks have achieved a significant improvement in performance for many different image classification tasks. However, these networks tend to be poorly calibrated in terms of output confidence. Temperature scaling is an efficient post-processing-based calibration scheme and obtains well calibrated results. In th…
Vanderbilt University（范德堡大学）；Vanderbilt University Medical Center（范德堡大学医学中心）；Siemens Healthineers（西门子医疗）
Although deep learning prediction models have been successful in the discrimination of different classes, they can often suffer from poor calibration across challenging domains including healthcare. Moreover, the long-tail distribution poses great challenges in deep learning classification problems including clinical disease prediction. There are approaches proposed recently to calibrate deep prediction in computer vision, but there are no studies found to demonstrate how the representative models work in different challenging contexts. In this paper, we bridge the confidence calibration from …
Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院自动化研究所）；University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学）
Reliable confidence estimation for the predictions is important in many safety-critical applications. However, modern deep neural networks are often overconfident for their incorrect predictions. Recently, many calibration methods have been proposed to alleviate the overconfidence problem. With calibrated confidence, a primary and practical purpose is to detect misclassification errors by filtering out low-confidence predictions (known as failure prediction). In this paper, we find a general, widely-existed but actually-neglected phenomenon that most confidence calibration methods are useless …
German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence（德国人工智能研究中心）
Uncertainty quantification in neural network promises to increase safety of AI systems, but it is not clear how performance might vary with the training set size. In this paper we evaluate seven uncertainty methods on Fashion MNIST and CIFAR10, as we sub-sample and produce varied training set sizes. We find that calibration error and out of distribution detection performance strongly depend on the training set size, with most methods being miscalibrated on the test set with small training sets. Gradient-based methods seem to poorly estimate epistemic uncertainty and are the most affected by tr…
Object-Level Verbalized Confidence Calibration in Vision-Language Models via Semantic Perturbation
University of Science and Technology of China（中国科学技术大学）；SKL of Processors, Institute of Computing Technology, CAS（中国科学院计算技术研究所处理器专项实验室）；National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）；University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学）；University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）
Confidence Calibration for Multimodal LLMs: An Empirical Study through Medical VQA
College of Computer Science and Technology, Zhejiang University（浙江大学计算机科学与技术学院）；School of Computer Science and Technology, Xidian University（西安电子科技大学计算机科学与技术学院）；Zhihui Medical Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd.（智汇医疗科技（上海）有限公司）
In classification applications, we often want probabilistic predictions to reflect confidence or uncertainty. Dropout, a commonly used training technique, has recently been linked to Bayesian inference, yielding an efficient way to quantify uncertainty in neural network models. However, as previously demonstrated, confidence estimates computed with a naive implementation of dropout can be poorly calibrated, particularly when using convolutional networks. In this paper, through the lens of ensemble learning, we associate calibration error with the correlation between the models sampled with dro…
Imperial College London（伦敦帝国学院）；Arm ML Research Lab（Arm机器学习研究实验室）
Modern convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are known to be overconfident in terms of their calibration on unseen input data. That is to say, they are more confident than they are accurate. This is undesirable if the probabilities predicted are to be used for downstream decision making. When considering accuracy, CNNs are also surprisingly robust to compression techniques, such as quantization, which aim to reduce computational and memory costs. We show that this robustness can be partially explained by the calibration behavior of modern CNNs, and may be improved with overconfidence. This is d…
SRI International（SRI国际）；School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Oregon State University（俄勒冈州立大学电气工程与计算机科学学院）
Existing calibration algorithms address the problem of covariate shift via unsupervised domain adaptation. However, these methods suffer from the following limitations: 1) they require unlabeled data from the target domain, which may not be available at the stage of calibration in real-world applications and 2) their performance depends heavily on the disparity between the distributions of the source and target domains. To address these two limitations, we present novel calibration solutions via domain generalization. Our core idea is to leverage multiple calibration domains to reduce the effe…
Microsoft Research Asia（微软亚洲研究院）；MILA（米拉研究所）；S-Lab, Nanyang Technological University（南洋理工大学S-Lab实验室）；Nanyang Technological University（南洋理工大学）
Confidence calibration is of great importance to the reliability of decisions made by machine learning systems. However, discriminative classifiers based on deep neural networks are often criticized for producing overconfident predictions that fail to reflect the true correctness likelihood of classification accuracy. We argue that such an inability to model uncertainty is mainly caused by the closed-world nature in softmax: a model trained by the cross-entropy loss will be forced to classify input into one of $K$ pre-defined categories with high probability. To address this problem, we for th…
Hamburg University of Technology（汉堡工业大学）；Leibniz Universität Hannover（莱布尼茨汉诺威大学）；Hannover Medical School（汉诺威医学院）；The Hospital for Sick Children（多伦多病童医院）；University of Toronto Mississauga（多伦多大学密西沙加校区）
The consideration of predictive uncertainty in medical imaging with deep learning is of utmost importance. We apply estimation of both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty by variational Bayesian inference with Monte Carlo dropout to regression tasks and show that predictive uncertainty is systematically underestimated. We apply $ σ$ scaling with a single scalar value; a simple, yet effective calibration method for both types of uncertainty. The performance of our approach is evaluated on a variety of common medical regression data sets using different state-of-the-art convolutional network arc…
Dynamic Alignment and Calibration for Multimodal Learning
School of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China（电子科技大学计算机科学与工程学院）；Tianyijiaotong Technology Ltd.（天翼交通科技有限公司）；School of Computer Science and Technology, Hainan University（海南大学计算机科学与技术学院）
