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arXiv 2109.08577physics.soc-ph
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能源获取中空间不平等的微观模拟:印度城市的贝叶斯多层次建模方法

A microsimulation of spatial inequality in energy access: A Bayesian multi-level modelling approach for urban India

A. P. Neto-Bradley, R. Choudhary, P. Challenor

摘要:

在印度,获得持续的清洁烹饪对于解决生物质燃料造成的室内空气污染的健康负担至关重要,但城市的空间不平等可能对低收入家庭的政策的接受和有效性产生不利影响。关于印度城市能源使用的空间分布的数据有限,特别是在低收入家庭中,大多数定量研究主要侧重于经济决定因素的影响。一个微观模拟的方法,提出了使用公开的数据和贝叶斯多层次模型来考虑目前的烹饪方法,当地的社会文化背景,和空间效应的影响。这种方法提供了以前不可用的洞察印度城市内的燃料使用和住宅能源过渡的空间分布。模拟影响的不确定性会传播到燃料使用估计数。该模型被应用到印度南部的喀拉拉邦和泰米尔纳德邦的四个城市,并对病房级调查数据的比较显示与模型估计的一致性。病房一级的影响-病房如何与城市平均水平和该州其他城市地区进行比较,这可以帮助利益相关者设计和实施针对家庭需求的清洁烹饪干预措施。

英文摘要:

Access to sustained clean cooking in India is essential to addressing the health burden of indoor air pollution from biomass fuels, but spatial inequality in cities can adversely affect uptake and effectiveness of policies amongst low-income households. Limited data exists on the spatial distribution of energy use in Indian cities, particularly amongst low-income households, and most quantitative studies focus primarily on the effect of economic determinants. A microsimulation approach is proposed, using publicly available data and a Bayesian multi-level model to account for effects of current cooking practices, local socio-cultural context, and spatial effects. This approach offers previously unavailable insight into the spatial distribution of fuel use and residential energy transition within Indian cities. Uncertainty in the modelled effects is propagated through to fuel use estimates. The model is applied to four cities in the south Indian states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, and comparison against ward-level survey data shows consistency with the model estimates. Ward-level effects exemplify how wards compare to the city average and to other urban area in the state, which can help stakeholders design and implement clean cooking interventions tailored to the needs of households.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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