在战略、战术和行动层面校准人群疏散模拟参数：哪一个最重要？
Calibrating parameters of crowd evacuation simulation at strategic, tactical and operational levels: Which one matters most?
摘要：
背景资料：使用基于代理的模型来模拟人群疏散的过程需要建模者指定整个参数范围的值，每个参数确定疏散者行为的某些方面。虽然潜在的敏感性，每个单一的参数的模拟输出被排除在外，一个关键的问题是，这类参数的数值模型是最敏感的估计疏散时间时？鉴于可用于校准的数据和资源有限，而且往往需要确定优先事项，这一问题具有重要意义。方法：在这里，我们采用了一个仿真模型的疏散组成的多个集成层。在概述了关键参数的校准程序后，我们在有大量人群的复杂模拟空间中进行了广泛的灵敏度分析，以回答上述问题。调查结果：我们的分析表明，一旦参数对比一致和可比的规模，模拟疏散时间的估计，到目前为止，最敏感的机械运动参数的值在运动层，那些确定在瓶颈的放电率。其次是决定方向选择适应率的参数，其次是决定个体间相互作用对方向选择影响的参数。结论：这些结果表明，为了使用模拟产生现实的疏散时间，最关键的方面是，到目前为止，完善瓶颈处的模拟流速。含义：这突出表明，迫切需要进一步提高现有出口能力经验估计的准确性，并制定更严格的校准方法，确定瓶颈处的流量参数。如果模型不能准确地产生瓶颈流率，则改进模拟的其他方面的努力可能是徒劳的。
英文摘要：
Background: Simulating a process of crowd evacuation using an agent-based model requires modellers to specify values of a whole range of parameters each determining certain aspects of evacuee behaviour. While potential sensitivity of simulation outputs to each single parameter is undoubted, one critical question is that to which class of parameters such numerical models are most sensitive when estimating evacuation times? The question is of significance given that available data and resources for calibration are limited and priorities often need to be made. Methods: Here, we employ a simulation model of evacuation comprised of multiple integrated layers. After providing an overview of the calibration procedure for key parameters, we perform extensive sensitivity analyses in complex simulated spaces with large crowds to answer the above question. Findings: Our analyses showed that, once parameters are contrasted on a consistent and comparable scale, estimates of simulated evacuation time are, by far margins, most sensitive to the value of mechanical movement parameters at locomotion layer, those that determine the discharge rate at bottlenecks. The next most critical set of parameters were those that determine the rate of direction choice adaptation followed by those that determine the effect of inter-individual interactions on direction choices. Conclusions: These results suggest that, in order to produce realistic evacuation times using simulation, the most critical aspect is, by far, perfecting the simulated flowrates at bottlenecks. Implications: This highlights the crucial need for furthering the accuracy of existing empirical estimates for exit capacity; and developing more rigorous calibration methods for parameters that determine flowrates at bottlenecks. If a model does not produce bottleneck flowrates accurately, efforts to refine other aspects of simulation might be in vain.
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