与气候有关的灾害和死亡人数
Climate-Related Disasters and the Death Toll
摘要：
随着气候变化的加速，预计未来几十年气候灾害的频率将增加。关于这种加速将如何影响不同的气候区域，目前正在进行辩论。在本文中，我们描述了一个预测气候灾害发生频率和死亡人数严重程度的模型。灾害的频率被描述为一个泊松过程驱动的CO2排放总量。灾害的严重程度是用区域实际人均国内生产总值趋势驱动的广义帕累托分布来描述的。我们根据政府间气候变化专门委员会对“可持续”和“一切照旧”基线情景下的人口、地区人均实际GDP和二氧化碳排放总量的预测，预测不同类型气候灾害的死亡人数。
英文摘要：
With climate change accelerating, the frequency of climate disasters is expected to increase in the decades to come. There is ongoing debate as to how different climatic regions will be affected by such an acceleration. In this paper, we describe a model for predicting the frequency of climate disasters and the severity of the resulting number of deaths. The frequency of disasters is described as a Poisson process driven by aggregate CO2 emissions. The severity of disasters is described using a generalized Pareto distribution driven by the trend in regional real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We predict the death toll for different types of climate disasters based on the projections made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the population, the regional real GDP per capita, and aggregate CO2 emissions in the "sustainable" and "business-as-usual" baseline scenarios.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
