arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 2109.00701physics.ao-ph
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用多线性模型选择算法改进降水估计

Improving Precipitation Estimation Using Multilinear Model Selection Algorithms

Ruhollah Nasiri, Mohamad Sarajzadeh

摘要:

高质量的高时空分辨率定量降水估计是许多水文/水文气象设计的关键。降雨的最佳定量降水估计提高了河流和山洪预报的准确性。在这项研究中,我们的目标是通过两种最常见的模型选择技术,即最小绝对收缩和选择算子和贝叶斯模型平均,合并多个降雨量估计,包括雨量计,雷达,逆距离加权,普通协克里格和自适应条件偏差惩罚协克里格。这些方法在一段时间内适用于整个美国。使用RMSE、ME、NSE和相关系数等统计度量来研究估计模型的准确性和可靠性。结果表明,BMA和LASSO都改善了降水估计,考虑到所有范围的降雨观测包括在内。但在10 mm以上的降雨量中,OCK和CBPCK技术优于其他方法。IDW估计值偏差较小,导致估计值较差,这是由于二次变迹雷达的局限性。然而,OCK和CBPCK通过增加雷达降雨量估计值作为第二个变量来解决这个问题。

英文摘要:

High quality Quantitative Precipitation Estimation at high spatiotemporal resolution is crucial to many hydrologic/hydro-meteorological designs. Optimal Quantitative Precipitation Estimation of rainfall improves the accuracy of river and flash flood forecasts. In this study, we aim to merge multiple rainfall estimates including rain gauge, radar, Inverse Distance Weighting, Ordinary Co-Kriging, and Adaptive Conditional Bias Penalized Co-Kriging through two most common model selection techniques known as Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator and Bayesian Model Averaging. The methods were applied to the entire United States for a certain period. Statistical measures such as RMSE, ME, NSE, and Correlation Coefficient are used to investigate the accuracy and reliability of the estimation models. It is shown that both BMA and LASSO improve the precipitation estimation considering all ranges of rainfall observation included. However, OCK and CBPCK technique outperforms other methods in rainfall more than 10 mm. The IDW estimates show small bias, which results in a poor estimation, which is due to the limitation in using secondary variable radar. However, OCK and CBPCK address this problem by adding radar rainfall estimates as the second variable.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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