“倾翻瀑布”是什么意思?
What do we mean, 'tipping cascade'?
摘要:
根据地球气候和生态系统中潜在倾翻因素的相互作用,倾翻级联作为可能的动力机制得到越来越多的讨论和研究,因为其激活将对人类社会和生物圈完整性造成相当大的风险。然而,在文献中的倾翻叶栅的描述有歧义,至今。在这里,我们说明了如何从一个非常简单的耦合两个先前研究的理想化的小费元素出现不同的模式的多个小费动态。特别是,我们区分两相级联,多米诺级联和联合级联。虽然可能会缓解正在展开的两阶段级联,而且共同的预警指标在一定程度上对即将到来的关键过渡敏感,但多米诺骨牌级联一旦启动就很难停止,而且基于关键减速的指标未能表明下一个因素的倾斜。这些不同的潜在干预和预测的不同模式的多个倾翻动态应被视为一个呼吁,以更准确地在未来的分析所产生的级联动态在地球系统的倾翻元素的相互作用。
英文摘要:
Based on suggested interactions of potential tipping elements in the Earth's climate and in ecological systems, tipping cascades as possible dynamics are increasingly discussed and studied as their activation would impose a considerable risk for human societies and biosphere integrity. However, there are ambiguities in the description of tipping cascades within the literature so far. Here we illustrate how different patterns of multiple tipping dynamics emerge from a very simple coupling of two previously studied idealized tipping elements. In particular, we distinguish between a two phase cascade, a domino cascade and a joint cascade. While a mitigation of an unfolding two phase cascade may be possible and common early warning indicators are sensitive to upcoming critical transitions to a certain degree, the domino cascade may hardly be stopped once initiated and critical slowing down--based indicators fail to indicate tipping of the following element. These different potentials for intervention and anticipation across the distinct patterns of multiple tipping dynamics should be seen as a call to be more precise in future analyses on cascading dynamics arising from tipping element interactions in the Earth system.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。