气候波动的宏观经济成本
The macroeconomic cost of climate volatility
摘要：
我们利用1960年至2019年期间133个国家的数据研究了气候波动对经济增长的影响。我们发现，随着时间的推移，年气温的条件（事前）波动性稳步增加，使各国的气候条件更难预测，对经济增长有重要影响。在控制伴随的温度变化的情况下，温度波动率上升1摄氏度平均会导致GDP增长下降0.3%，GDP波动率上升0.7%。与平均气温的变化不同，气温波动的变化对富国和穷国都有影响。
英文摘要：
We study the impact of climate volatility on economic growth exploiting data on 133 countries between 1960 and 2019. We show that the conditional (ex ante) volatility of annual temperatures increased steadily over time, rendering climate conditions less predictable across countries, with important implications for growth. Controlling for concomitant changes in temperatures, a +1 degree C increase in temperature volatility causes on average a 0.3 percent decline in GDP growth and a 0.7 percent increase in the volatility of GDP. Unlike changes in average temperatures, changes in temperature volatility affect both rich and poor countries.
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