为什么投票失败？四次US总统选举、英国脱欧和两次印度大选的案例
Why Do Polls Fail? The Case of Four US Presidential Elections, Brexit, and Two India General Elections
摘要：
概率和统计学最广为人知和最重要的应用之一是预测选举结果的科学民意调查。1936年，盖洛普通过对几千人的科学抽样，正确预测了罗斯福在美国总统大选中战胜兰登，而《文学文摘》则通过对1000万份邮寄给汽车和电话所有者的问卷调查，得出了240万份答案。从那时起，民意调查已发展成为一个数十亿美元的蓬勃发展、非常有影响力和重要的行业，遍布世界各地。在美国总统选举中，民意调查大多是准确的，只有少数例外。他们最大的两次失败是对1948年和2016年美国总统大选的错误预测。在2016年英国公投，2014年和2019年印度人民院选举以及2020年美国总统大选中，大多数民意调查也失败了，尽管在后三次选举中，他们确实预测了获胜者。我们在本文中讨论这些民意调查。1948年的失败是由于非随机抽样。在2016年和2020年，这主要是由于没有回应的问题和民意调查人员可能存在的偏见。在2014年和2019年，这是由于制作民意调查的民意调查机构和新闻媒体的不回应和政治偏见。
英文摘要：
One of the most widely known and important applications of probability and statistics is scientific polling to forecast election results. In 1936, Gallup predicted correctly the victory of Roosevelt over Landon in the US presidential election, using scientific sampling of a few thousand persons, whereas the Literary Digest failed using 2.4 million answers to 10 million mailed questionnaires to automobile and telephone owners. Since then, polls have grown to be a multibillion flourishing and very influential and important industry, spreading around the world. Polls have mostly been accurate in the US presidential elections, with a few exceptions. Their two most notable failures were their wrong predictions of the US 1948 and 2016 presidential elections. Most polls failed too in the 2016 UK Referendum, in the 2014 and 2019 India Lok Sabha elections, and in the US 2020 presidential election, even though in the latter three they did predict the winner. We discuss these polls in the present paper. The failure in 1948 was due to non-random sampling. In 2016 and 2020 it was mainly due to the problem of non-response and possible biases of the pollsters. In 2014 and 2019 it was due to non-response and political biases of the polling agencies and news outlets that produced the polls.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
