寻找星系间文明对人类生存和旅行速度的先验估计的影响
Implications of a search for intergalactic civilizations on prior estimates of human survival and travel speed
摘要：
我们提出了一个模型，其中一定比例的外星文明随着时间的推移均匀扩展到宇宙尺度。然后，我们会问，如果一次巡天观测发现零个、一个或多个这样的文明，人类能推断出什么。我们展示了这项调查的结果，结合一种称为自我指示假设（SIA）的人类学方法，将改变任何先前对两个量的估计：1）像我们这样的技术文明生存下来进行这种扩张的机会，以及2）它可以扩张的最大可行速度。SIA对两者都给出了悲观的估计，但调查结果（即使是零结果）可以扭转一些影响。SIA引起的预期变化足以被视为一个可证伪的技术预测，以及对SIA在宇宙学推理中的测试。
英文摘要：
We present a model where some proportion of extraterrestrial civilizations expand uniformly over time to reach a cosmological scale. We then ask what humanity could infer if a sky survey were to find zero, one, or more such civilizations. We show how the results of this survey, in combination with an approach to anthropics called the Self Indication Assumption (SIA), would shift any prior estimates of two quantities: 1) The chance that a technological civilization like ours survives to embark on such expansion, and 2) the maximum feasible speed at which it could expand. The SIA gives pessimistic estimates for both, but survey results (even null results) can reverse some of the effect. The SIA-induced shift in expectations is strong enough to be regarded as a falsifiable technological prediction, and a test of the SIA in cosmological reasoning.
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