红色天空的形成与解决
Formulation and Resolutions of the Red Sky Paradox
摘要：
宇宙中的大多数恒星都是红矮星。它们的数量是我们太阳等恒星的5倍，寿命是它们的20倍（人口加权平均值）。当结合最近的观测发现这些小型恒星周围有大量温带岩石行星时，我们面临着一个明显的逻辑矛盾-为什么我们在天空中看不到红矮星？为了解决这一“红天悖论”，我们制定了贝叶斯概率函数的几率发现自己周围的F/G/K-光谱型（类太阳）恒星。如果从生命起源前的化学过程中发展出智慧生命是一个普遍快速而有保障的过程，那么红矮星的时间优势就软化了红天悖论，但加剧了经典的费米悖论。否则，我们会发现人类似乎是100分之1的离群值。虽然这可能是随机的机会（决议一），我们概述了其他三个非相互排斥的决议（II-IV），广泛作为过滤器，以削弱红矮星的复杂生命的适合性。未来的观测可能会为其中一些提供支持。值得注意的是，如果调查显示在最小（和最多）的红矮星周围有一个缺乏温带岩石行星，那么这将支持决议II。作为另一个例子，如果未来的表征工作发现红矮星世界由于恒星演化而具有有限的复杂生命窗口，这将支持决议III。解决这一矛盾将为未来的远程生命传感实验和宇宙生命的极限提供指导。
英文摘要：
Most stars in the Universe are red dwarfs. They outnumber stars like our Sun by a factor of 5 and outlive them by another factor of 20 (population-weighted mean). When combined with recent observations uncovering an abundance of temperate, rocky planets around these diminutive stars, we're faced with an apparent logical contradiction - why don't we see a red dwarf in our sky? To address this "Red Sky paradox", we formulate a Bayesian probability function concerning the odds of finding oneself around a F/G/K-spectral type (Sun-like) star. If the development of intelligent life from prebiotic chemistry is a universally rapid and ensured process, the temporal advantage of red dwarfs dissolves softening the Red Sky paradox, but exacerbating the classic Fermi paradox. Otherwise, we find that humanity appears to be a 1-in-100 outlier. Whilst this could be random chance (resolution I), we outline three other non-mutually exclusive resolutions (II-IV) that broadly act as filters to attenuate the suitability of red dwarfs for complex life. Future observations may be able to provide support for some of these. Notably, if surveys reveal a paucity temperate rocky planets around the smallest (and most numerous) red dwarfs then this would support resolution II. As another example, if future characterization efforts were to find that red dwarf worlds have limited windows for complex life due to stellar evolution, this would support resolution III. Solving this paradox would reveal guidance for the targeting of future remote life sensing experiments and the limits of life in the cosmos.
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