经济增长周期中增长、结构、规模与资源消耗的相互依赖
Interdependence of Growth, Structure, Size and Resource Consumption During an Economic Growth Cycle
摘要：
所有经济体都需要消耗物质资源来增长和维持其结构。现代经济的另一个特点是私人债务。"人力和资源与货币"（HARMONEY）经济增长模型使用一个以实物和货币单位表示的存量和流量一致的框架，将这些特征联系起来。通过更新的版本，我们探讨了经济增长和三个主要结构指标的相互依赖性。首先，我们表明，国内生产总值（GDP）与资源消耗的相对脱钩是一种预期模式，是由于增长的物理限制而发生的，而不是为了避免物理限制而做出的反应。虽然营运资本的资源效率提高确实会提高相对脱钩的程度，但定价从基于全部成本改为仅基于边际成本，从而忽略折旧和利息支付，导致负债率提高，也会提高相对脱钩的程度。第二，如果假设劳动力在工资上有充分的议价能力，当一个先前增长的经济体达到资源开采和GDP的峰值时，工资仍然很高，但利润和债务下降到零。通过消除议价能力，利润可以以工资下降为代价保持正值。第三，模型投入产出表中中间交易的分布遵循与二战后美国经济相同的时间模式。这些结果表明，HARMONEY框架可以现实地调查相互依赖的结构变化和经济分布，规模和资源消耗之间的权衡。
英文摘要：
All economies require physical resource consumption to grow and maintain their structure. The modern economy is additionally characterized by private debt. The Human and Resources with MONEY (HARMONEY) economic growth model links these features using a stock and flow consistent framework in physical and monetary units. Via an updated version, we explore the interdependence of growth and three major structural metrics of an economy. First, we show that relative decoupling of gross domestic product (GDP) from resource consumption is an expected pattern that occurs because of physical limits to growth, not a response to avoid physical limits. While an increase in resource efficiency of operating capital does increase the level of relative decoupling, so does a change in pricing from one based on full costs to one based only on marginal costs that neglects depreciation and interest payments leading to higher debt ratios. Second, if assuming full labor bargaining power for wages, when a previously-growing economy reaches peak resource extraction and GDP, wages remain high but profits and debt decline to zero. By removing bargaining power, profits can remain positive at the expense of declining wages. Third, the distribution of intermediate transactions within the input-output table of the model follows the same temporal pattern as in the post-World War II U.S. economy. These results indicate that the HARMONEY framework enables realistic investigation of interdependent structural change and trade-offs between economic distribution, size, and resources consumption.
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