Informally, a 'spurious correlation' is the dependence of a model on some aspect of the input data that an analyst thinks shouldn't matter. In machine learning, these have a know-it-when-you-see-it character; e.g., changing the gender of a sentence's subject changes a sentiment predictor's output. To check for spurious correlations, we can 'stress test' models by perturbing irrelevant parts of input data and seeing if model predictions change. In this paper, we study stress testing using the tools of causal inference. We introduce counterfactual invariance as a formalization of the requirement that changing irrelevant parts of the input shouldn't change model predictions. We connect counterfactual invariance to out-of-domain model performance, and provide practical schemes for learning (approximately) counterfactual invariant predictors (without access to counterfactual examples). It turns out that both the means and implications of counterfactual invariance depend fundamentally on the true underlying causal structure of the data -- in particular, whether the label causes the features or the features cause the label. Distinct causal structures require distinct regularization schemes to induce counterfactual invariance. Similarly, counterfactual invariance implies different domain shift guarantees depending on the underlying causal structure. This theory is supported by empirical results on text classification.
Despite alarm over the reliance of machine learning systems on so-called spurious patterns, the term lacks coherent meaning in standard statistical frameworks. However, the language of causality offers clarity: spurious associations are due to confounding (e.g., a common cause), but not direct or indirect causal effects. In this paper, we focus on natural language processing, introducing methods and resources for training models less sensitive to spurious patterns. Given documents and their initial labels, we task humans with revising each document so that it (i) accords with a counterfactual …
Counterfactual explanations (CEs) are methods for generating an alternative scenario that produces a different desirable outcome. For example, if a student is predicted to fail a course, then counterfactual explanations can provide the student with alternate ways so that they would be predicted to pass. The applications are many. However, CEs are currently generated from machine learning models that do not necessarily take into account the true causal structure in the data. By doing this, bias can be introduced into the CE quantities. I propose in this study to test the CEs using Judea Pearl's…
Estimating counterfactual treatment outcomes over time in complex multiagent scenarios
Graduate School of Informatics at Nagoya University（名古屋大学信息学研究科）；RIKEN Center for Advanced Intelligence Project（理化学研究所先进智能项目中心）；Graduate School of Informatics at Kyoto University（京都大学信息学研究科）；Graduate School of Engineering at the University of Tokyo（东京大学工学研究科）；Graduate School of Information Science and Technology at Osaka University（大阪大学信息科学与技术研究科）
Deep learning models tend not to be out-of-distribution robust primarily due to their reliance on spurious features to solve the task. Counterfactual data augmentations provide a general way of (approximately) achieving representations that are counterfactual-invariant to spurious features, a requirement for out-of-distribution (OOD) robustness. In this work, we show that counterfactual data augmentations may not achieve the desired counterfactual-invariance if the augmentation is performed by a context-guessing machine, an abstract machine that guesses the most-likely context of a given input…
Illinois Institute of Technology（伊利诺伊理工学院）；Tulane University（杜兰大学）
Spurious correlations threaten the validity of statistical classifiers. While model accuracy may appear high when the test data is from the same distribution as the training data, it can quickly degrade when the test distribution changes. For example, it has been shown that classifiers perform poorly when humans make minor modifications to change the label of an example. One solution to increase model reliability and generalizability is to identify causal associations between features and classes. In this paper, we propose to train a robust text classifier by augmenting the training data with …
University of California, Santa Barbara（加州大学圣巴巴拉分校）
Although deep learning models have driven state-of-the-art performance on a wide array of tasks, they are prone to spurious correlations that should not be learned as predictive clues. To mitigate this problem, we propose a causality-based training framework to reduce the spurious correlations caused by observed confounders. We give theoretical analysis on the underlying general Structural Causal Model (SCM) and propose to perform Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) on the interventional distribution instead of the observational distribution, namely Counterfactual Maximum Likelihood Estimation…
A machine learning model, under the influence of observed or unobserved confounders in the training data, can learn spurious correlations and fail to generalize when deployed. For image classifiers, augmenting a training dataset using counterfactual examples has been empirically shown to break spurious correlations. However, the counterfactual generation task itself becomes more difficult as the level of confounding increases. Existing methods for counterfactual generation under confounding consider a fixed set of interventions (e.g., texture, rotation) and are not flexible enough to capture d…
Implicit Counterfactual Data Augmentation for Robust Learning
National Engineering Research Center for Software Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China；Hangzhou Institute for Advanced Study, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hangzhou, 310024, China；Department of Mathematics, Hong Kong Baptist University, Hong Kong, 999077, China
University of Chicago（芝加哥大学）；Illinois Institute of Technology（伊利诺伊理工学院）；Tulane University（杜兰大学）
Recent work has raised concerns on the risk of spurious correlations and unintended biases in statistical machine learning models that threaten model robustness and fairness. In this paper, we propose a simple and intuitive regularization approach to integrate causal knowledge during model training and build a robust and fair model by emphasizing causal features and de-emphasizing spurious features. Specifically, we first manually identify causal and spurious features with principles inspired from the counterfactual framework of causal inference. Then, we propose a regularization approach to p…
Understanding and explaining the mistakes made by trained models is critical to many machine learning objectives, such as improving robustness, addressing concept drift, and mitigating biases. However, this is often an ad hoc process that involves manually looking at the model's mistakes on many test samples and guessing at the underlying reasons for those incorrect predictions. In this paper, we propose a systematic approach, conceptual counterfactual explanations (CCE), that explains why a classifier makes a mistake on a particular test sample(s) in terms of human-understandable concepts (e.…
While pretrained language models achieve excellent performance on natural language understanding benchmarks, they tend to rely on spurious correlations and generalize poorly to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. Recent work has explored using counterfactually-augmented data (CAD) -- data generated by minimally perturbing examples to flip the ground-truth label -- to identify robust features that are invariant under distribution shift. However, empirical results using CAD for OOD generalization have been mixed. To explain this discrepancy, we draw insights from a linear Gaussian model and demonstr…
In attempts to produce ML models less reliant on spurious patterns in NLP datasets, researchers have recently proposed curating counterfactually augmented data (CAD) via a human-in-the-loop process in which given some documents and their (initial) labels, humans must revise the text to make a counterfactual label applicable. Importantly, edits that are not necessary to flip the applicable label are prohibited. Models trained on the augmented data appear, empirically, to rely less on semantically irrelevant words and to generalize better out of domain. While this work draws loosely on causal th…
Counterfactual explanations have shown promising results as a post-hoc framework to make image classifiers more explainable. In this paper, we propose DiME, a method allowing the generation of counterfactual images using the recent diffusion models. By leveraging the guided generative diffusion process, our proposed methodology shows how to use the gradients of the target classifier to generate counterfactual explanations of input instances. Further, we analyze current approaches to evaluate spurious correlations and extend the evaluation measurements by proposing a new metric: Correlation Dif…
National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）；University of Southern California（南加州大学）；Nanyang Technological University（南洋理工大学）；Alibaba Group（阿里巴巴集团）
Recent literature focuses on utilizing the entity information in the sentence-level relation extraction (RE), but this risks leaking superficial and spurious clues of relations. As a result, RE still suffers from unintended entity bias, i.e., the spurious correlation between entity mentions (names) and relations. Entity bias can mislead the RE models to extract the relations that do not exist in the text. To combat this issue, some previous work masks the entity mentions to prevent the RE models from overfitting entity mentions. However, this strategy degrades the RE performance because it los…
Alibaba Group（阿里巴巴集团）；University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）
Deep learning models exhibit a preference for statistical fitting over logical reasoning. Spurious correlations might be memorized when there exists statistical bias in training data, which severely limits the model performance especially in small data scenarios. In this work, we introduce Counterfactual Adversarial Training framework (CAT) to tackle the problem from a causality perspective. Particularly, for a specific sample, CAT first generates a counterfactual representation through latent space interpolation in an adversarial manner, and then performs Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM…
Representation learning constructs low-dimensional representations to summarize essential features of high-dimensional data. This learning problem is often approached by describing various desiderata associated with learned representations; e.g., that they be non-spurious, efficient, or disentangled. It can be challenging, however, to turn these intuitive desiderata into formal criteria that can be measured and enhanced based on observed data. In this paper, we take a causal perspective on representation learning, formalizing non-spuriousness and efficiency (in supervised representation learni…
Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）；University of Tübingen（蒂宾根大学）
Neural networks are prone to learning shortcuts -- they often model simple correlations, ignoring more complex ones that potentially generalize better. Prior works on image classification show that instead of learning a connection to object shape, deep classifiers tend to exploit spurious correlations with low-level texture or the background for solving the classification task. In this work, we take a step towards more robust and interpretable classifiers that explicitly expose the task's causal structure. Building on current advances in deep generative modeling, we propose to decompose the im…
We tackle the problem of computing counterfactual explanations -- minimal changes to the features that flip an undesirable model prediction. We propose a solution to this question for linear Support Vector Machine (SVMs) models. Moreover, we introduce a way to account for weighted actions that allow for more changes in certain features than others. In particular, we show how to find counterfactual explanations with the purpose of increasing model interpretability. These explanations are valid, change only actionable features, are close to the data distribution, sparse, and take into account co…
Counterfactual instances are a powerful tool to obtain valuable insights into automated decision processes, describing the necessary minimal changes in the input space to alter the prediction towards a desired target. Most previous approaches require a separate, computationally expensive optimization procedure per instance, making them impractical for both large amounts of data and high-dimensional data. Moreover, these methods are often restricted to certain subclasses of machine learning models (e.g. differentiable or tree-based models). In this work, we propose a deep reinforcement learning…
Learning causal relationships in high-dimensional data (images, videos) is a hard task, as they are often defined on low dimensional manifolds and must be extracted from complex signals dominated by appearance, lighting, textures and also spurious correlations in the data. We present a method for learning counterfactual reasoning of physical processes in pixel space, which requires the prediction of the impact of interventions on initial conditions. Going beyond the identification of structural relationships, we deal with the challenging problem of forecasting raw video over long horizons. Our…
CausalGaze: Unveiling Hallucinations via Counterfactual Graph Intervention in Large Language Models
College of Electronic Engineering, National University of Defense Technology（国防科技大学电子工程学院）；Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Cyberspace Security Situation Awareness and Evaluation（安徽省网络空间安全态势感知与评估重点实验室）；Institute of Computer Application, China Academy of Engineering Physics（中国工程物理研究院计算机应用研究所）
Mitigating Shortcut Learning with Diffusion Counterfactuals and Diverse Ensembles
Mila - Quebec AI Institute（米拉-魁北克人工智能研究所）；Université de Montréal（蒙特利尔大学）；Eberhard-Karls-Universität Tübingen（埃伯哈德卡尔斯蒂宾根大学）；Idiap Research Institute（伊迪亚普研究所）
University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学）；The Alan Turing Institute（艾伦·图灵研究所）
Due to the limited availability of medical data, deep learning approaches for medical image analysis tend to generalise poorly to unseen data. Augmenting data during training with random transformations has been shown to help and became a ubiquitous technique for training neural networks. Here, we propose a novel adversarial counterfactual augmentation scheme that aims at finding the most \textit{effective} synthesised images to improve downstream tasks, given a pre-trained generative model. Specifically, we construct an adversarial game where we update the input \textit{conditional factor} of…
