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arXiv 2104.12871cs.AI
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为什么AI比我们想象的要难

Why AI is Harder Than We Think

Santa Fe Institute(圣塔菲研究所)

Melanie Mitchell

摘要:

自20世纪50年代开始以来,人工智能领域在乐观预测和大规模投资(“AI春天”)与失望、信心丧失和资金减少(“AI冬天”)之间循环了好几次。即使今天人工智能突破的步伐看起来很快,开发长期承诺的技术,如自动驾驶汽车,管家机器人和会话伴侣,也比许多人预期的要困难得多。这些重复循环的原因之一是我们对智能本身的性质和复杂性的理解有限。在本文中,我描述了人工智能研究人员常见假设中的四个谬误,这些谬误可能导致对该领域的过度自信的预测。最后,我讨论了这些谬论引发的开放性问题,包括给机器灌输人类常识的古老挑战。

英文摘要:

Since its beginning in the 1950s, the field of artificial intelligence has cycled several times between periods of optimistic predictions and massive investment ("AI spring") and periods of disappointment, loss of confidence, and reduced funding ("AI winter"). Even with today's seemingly fast pace of AI breakthroughs, the development of long-promised technologies such as self-driving cars, housekeeping robots, and conversational companions has turned out to be much harder than many people expected. One reason for these repeating cycles is our limited understanding of the nature and complexity of intelligence itself. In this paper I describe four fallacies in common assumptions made by AI researchers, which can lead to overconfident predictions about the field. I conclude by discussing the open questions spurred by these fallacies, including the age-old challenge of imbuing machines with humanlike common sense.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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