Bayesian Synthetic Likelihood Estimation for Underreported Non-Stationary Time Series: Covid-19 Incidence in Spain

New statistical model for misreported data with application to current public health challenges

The main goal of this work is to present a new model able to deal with potentially misreported continuous time series. The proposed model is able to handle the autocorrelation structure in continuous time series data, which might be partially or totally underreported or overreported. Its performance is illustrated through a comprehensive simulation study considering several autocorrelation structures and two real data applications on human papillomavirus incidence in Girona (Catalunya, Spain) and COVID-19 incidence in the Chinese region of Heilongjiang.

On the association between COVID-19 vaccination levels and incidence and lethality rates at a regional scale in Spain

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which causes the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has led to the deepest global health and economic crisis of the current century. This dramatic situation has forced the public health authorities and pharmaceutical companies to develop anti-COVID-19 vaccines in record time. Currently, almost 80% of the population are vaccinated with the required number of doses in Spain. Thus, in this paper, COVID-19 incidence and lethality rates are analyzed through a segmented spatio-temporal regression model that allows studying if there …

检测阈值下日降水量的双零膨胀时空建模

Double zero-inflated spatio-temporal modeling of daily precipitation under detection thresholds

针对日降水量中两种零值（无降水事件和低于检测限的未测量降水）问题，提出结合Probit回归、Gamma回归和阈值截断观测机制的多层时空模型，并应用高斯过程捕捉空间依赖，在贝叶斯框架下实现精确推断。

Generalised functional additive mixed models with compositional covariates for areal Covid-19 incidence curves

We extend the generalised functional additive mixed model to include (functional) compositional covariates carrying relative information of a whole. Relying on the isometric isomorphism of the Bayes Hilbert space of probability densities with a subspace of the $L^2$, we include functional compositions as transformed functional covariates with constrained effect function. The extended model allows for the estimation of linear, nonlinear and time-varying effects of scalar and functional covariates, as well as (correlated) functional random effects, in addition to the compositional effects. We us…

基于模型的工具评估日最高气温的时空变化：以西班牙埃布罗流域为例

Model-based tools for assessing space and time change in daily maximum temperature: an application to the Ebro basin in Spain

本文提出一套基于时空模型的工具，用于评估日最高气温的时空变化，并以西班牙埃布罗流域为例，揭示了夏季极端高温风险的空间异质性增加，其中埃布罗河谷和东比利牛斯地区增幅最大。