Both coronal holes and active regions are source regions of the solar wind. The distribution of these coronal structures across both space and time is well known, but it is unclear how much each source contributes to the solar wind. In this study we use photospheric magnetic field maps observed over the past four solar cycles to estimate what fraction of magnetic open solar flux is rooted in active regions, a proxy for the fraction of all solar wind originating in active regions. We find that the fractional contribution of active regions to the solar wind varies between 30% to 80% at any one time during solar maximum and is negligible at solar minimum, showing a strong correlation with sunspot number. While active regions are typically confined to latitudes $\pm$30$^{\circ}$ in the corona, the solar wind they produce can reach latitudes up to $\pm$60$^{\circ}$. Their fractional contribution to the solar wind also correlates with coronal mass ejection rate, and is highly variable, changing by $\pm$20% on monthly timescales within individual solar maxima. We speculate that these variations could be driven by coronal mass ejections causing reconfigurations of the coronal magnetic field on sub-monthly timescales.
We examine the temporal changes in both solar polar magnetic field (PMF) at latitudes $\ge$ $45^{\circ}$ and heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) at 1 AU during solar cycles 21--24 with emphasis on the recent activity changes after July 2015, the so called "mini solar maximum" of cycle 24. While unsigned PMF shows a solar-cycle-like variation in cycles 21 and 22, it shows an anti-solar-cycle-like variation in cycle 24. In addition, the floor level of the HMF (of 4.6 nT), i.e. the value that the HMF returns to at each solar minimum, is breached about two years prior to cycle 24 minimum, indicating…
We analyze in situ measurements of solar wind velocity obtained by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft during the solar activity cycle 23. We calculated a robust complexity measure, the permutation entropy (S) of solar wind time series at different phases of a solar activity cycle. The permutation entropy measure is first tested on the known dynamical data before its application to solar wind time series. It is observed that complexity of solar wind velocity fluctuations at 1 AU shows hysteresis phenomenon while following the ascending and descending phases of the activity cycle…
On the basis of morphological analysis of yearly values of the maximum CME (coronal mass ejection) speed index, the sunspot number and total sunspot area, sunspot magnetic field, and solar flare index, the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field strength, and the geomagnetic Ap and Dst indices, we point out the particularities of solar and geomagnetic activity during the last cycle 23, the long minimum which followed it and the ascending branch of cycle 24. We also analyze temporal offset between the maximum CME speed index and the above-mentioned solar, geomagnetic, and interplanet…
The main purpose of this study is the determination of solar minimum date of the new sunspot cycle No 24. It is provided by using of four types of mean daily data values for the period Jan 01. 2006 - Dec 31. 2009: (1) the solar radioindex F10.7; (2) the International sunspot number Ri; (3) the total solar irradiance index (TSI), and (4) the daily number of X-ray flares of classes from "B" to "X" from the soft X-ray GOES satellite channel (0.1 - 0.8 nm). It is found that the mean starting moment of the upward solar activity tendency (the mean solar minimum) is Nov. 06th, 2008. So, the solar cyc…
Severe geomagnetic storms appear to be ordered by the solar cycle in a number of ways. They occur more frequently close to solar maximum and declining phase, are more common in larger solar cycles and show different patterns of occurrence in odd- and even-numbered solar cycles. Our knowledge of the most extreme space weather events, however, comes from the spikes in cosmogenic-isotope ($^{14}$C, $^{10}$Be and $^{36}$Cl) records that are attributed to significantly larger solar energetic particle (SEP) events than have been observed during the space age. Despite both storms and SEPs being drive…
The properties of a solar wind stream are determined by its source region and by transport effects. Independently of the solar wind type, the solar wind measured in situ is always affected by both. We consider the proton-proton collisional age as an ordering parameter for the solar wind at 1AU and explore its relation to the solar wind classification scheme developed by Xu & Borovsky (2015). We use this to show that explicit magnetic field information is not required for this solar wind classification. Based on the observation that the three basic solar wind types from this categorization cove…
High speed solar wind streams (HSSs) are very efficient drivers of geomagnetic activity at high latitudes. In this paper we use a recently developed $Δ{H}$ parameter of geomagnetic activity, calculated from the night-side hourly magnetic field measurements of the Sodankylä observatory, as a proxy for solar wind (SW) speed at monthly time resolution in 1914-2014 (solar cycles 15-24). The seasonal variation in the relation between monthly $Δ{H}$ and solar wind speed is taken into account by calculating separate regressions between $Δ{H}$ and SW speed for each month. Thereby, we obtain a homogene…
Investigations on the solar cycle variation of the properties of suprathermal populations (H and other heavy ions like $^4$He, $^3$He, C, O and Fe) in the solar wind are sparse and hence, poorly understood. In the present investigation, solar cycle variations of "quiet" time suprathermal elements are investigated using $<$ $\sim$ 1 MeV/n particle flux data obtained from Ultra-Low Energy Isotope Spectrometer on board Advanced Composition Explorer satellite during the solar cycle 23 and 24. The analysis reveals that helium ($^4$He) shows zero or positive lags with respect to sunspot numbers in s…
The Sun is the major source of heat and light in our solar system. The solar cycle is the 11-year cycle of solar activity that can be determined by the rise and fall in the numbers and surface area of sunspots. Solar activity is associated with several factors including radio flux, solar irradiance, magnetic field, solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar cycles. This study attempts to determine the Sun's activity specifically for the coronal mass ejection, its trend during solar cycle 23, and its apparent difference. A time series analysis was used to measure the CME data for larger ca…
The modeling of the heliosphere requires continuous three-dimensional solar wind data. The in-situ out-of-ecliptic measurements are very rare, so that other methods of solar wind detection are needed. We use the remote-sensing data of the solar wind speed from observations of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) to reconstruct spatial and temporal structures of the solar wind proton speed from 1985 to 2013. We developed a method of filling the data gaps in the IPS observations to obtain continuous and homogeneous solar wind speed records. We also present a method to retrieve the solar wind densi…
We study the relationship between solar wind helium to hydrogen abundance ratio ($A_\mathrm{He}$), solar wind speed ($v_\mathrm{SW}$), and sunspot number (SSN) over solar cycles 23 and 24. This is the first full 22-year Hale cycle measured with the Wind spacecraft covering a full cycle of the solar dynamo with two polarity reversals. While previous studies have established a strong correlation between $A_\mathrm{He}$ and SSN, we show that the phase delay between $A_\mathrm{He}$ and SSN is a monotonic increasing function of $v_\mathrm{SW}$. Correcting for this lag, $A_\mathrm{He}$ returns to th…
As the solar wind propagates through the heliosphere, dynamical processes irreversibly erase the signatures of the near-Sun heating and acceleration processes. The elemental fractionation of the solar wind should not change during transit however, making it an ideal tracer of these processes. We aimed to verify directly if the solar wind elemental fractionation is reflective of the coronal source region fractionation, both within and across different solar wind source regions. A backmapping scheme was used to predict where solar wind measured by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) originat…
Although the origins of slow solar wind are unclear, there is increasing evidence that at least some of it is released in a steady state on over-expanded coronal hole magnetic field lines. This type of slow wind has similar properties to the fast solar wind, including a high degree of Alfvénicity. In this study a combination of proton, alpha particle, and electron measurements are used to investigate the kinetic properties of a single interval of slow Alfvénic wind at 0.35 AU. It is shown that this slow Alfvénic interval is characterised by high alpha particle abundances, pronounced alpha-prot…
We study the solar wind helium-to-hydrogen abundance's ($A_\mathrm{He}$) relationship to solar cycle onset. Using OMNI/Lo data, we show that $A_\mathrm{He}$ increases prior to sunspot number (SSN) minima. We also identify a rapid depletion and recovery in $A_\mathrm{He}$ that occurs directly prior to cycle onset. This $A_\mathrm{He}$ Shutoff happens at approximately the same time across solar wind speeds ($v_\mathrm{sw}$), implying that it is formed by a mechanism distinct from the one that drives $A_\mathrm{He}$'s solar cycle scale variation and $v_\mathrm{sw}$-dependent phase offset with res…
The dynamic activity of the Sun -- sustained by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism working in its interior -- modulates the electromagnetic, particulate and radiative environment in space. While solar activity variations on short timescale create space weather, slow long-term modulation forms the basis of space climate. Space weather impacts diverse space-reliant technologies while space climate influences planetary atmospheres and climate. Having prior knowledge of the Sun's activity is important in these contexts. However, forecasting solar-stellar magnetic activity has remained an outst…
We investigate solar activity by focusing on double maxima in solar cycles and try to estimate the shape of the current solar cycle (Cycle 24) during its maximum. We analyzed data for Solar Cycle 24 by using Learmonth Solar Observatory sunspot group data since 2008. All sunspot groups (SGs) recorded during this time interval were separated into two groups: The first group includes small SGs [A, B, C, H, classes by the Zurich classification], and the second group consists of large SGs [D, E, and F]. We then calculated small and large sunspot group numbers, their sunspot numbers [SSN] and Zurich…
We use helioseismic data from ground and space-based instruments to analyze how solar rotation has changed since the beginning of solar Cycle 23 with emphasis on studying the differences between Cycles 23 and 24. We find that the nature of solar rotation is indeed different for the two cycles. While the changes in the latitudinally independent component follows solar-cycle indices, some of the other components have a more complicated behavior. There is a substantial change in the behavior of the solar zonal flows and their spatial gradients too. While the zonal flows are in general weaker in C…
The heating and acceleration of the solar wind remains one of the fundamental unsolved problems in heliophysics. It is usually observed that the proton temperature $T_i$ is highly correlated with the solar wind speed $V_{SW}$, while the electron temperature $T_e$ shows anti-correlation or no clear correlation with the solar wind speed. Here we inspect both Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and WIND data and compare the observations with simulation results. PSP observations below 30 solar radii clearly show a positive correlation between proton temperature and wind speed and a negative correlation betwe…
Over 54 years of hourly mean value of solar wind velocity from 27 Nov. 1963 to 31 Dec. 2017 are used to investigate characteristics of the rotation period of solar wind through auto-correlation analysis. Solar wind of high velocity is found to rotate faster than low-velocity wind, while its rotation rate increases with velocity increasing, but in contrast for solar wind of low velocity, its rotation rate decreases with velocity increasing. Our analysis shows that solar wind of a higher velocity statistically possesses a faster rotation rate for the entire solar wind. The yearly rotation rate o…
We study solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) during the deep solar minimum, including the declining phase, of solar cycle 23 and compare the results of this unusual period with the results obtained during similar phases of the previous solar cycles 20, 21, and 22. These periods consist of two epochs each of negative and positive polarities of the heliospheric magnetic field from the north polar region of the Sun. In addition to cosmic ray data, we utilize simultaneous solar and interplanetary plasma/field data including the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. We study the…
It is very important to forecast the future solar activity due to its effect on our planet and near space. Here, we employ the new version of the sunspot number index (version 2) to analyse the relationship between the solar maximum amplitude and max-max cycle length proposed by Du (2006). We show that the correlation between the parameters used by Du (2006) for the prediction of the sunspot number (amplitude of the cycle, Rm, and max-max cycle length for two solar cycles before, Pmax-2) disappears when we use solar cycles prior to solar cycle 9. We conclude that the correlation between these …
Characterization of compressible fluctuations in solar wind streams dominated by balanced and imbalanced turbulence: Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter and Wind observations
The University of Texas at Austin（德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）
研究通过分析Wind、Solar Orbiter和Parker Solar Probe的数据，探讨太阳风中压缩性波动的尺度依赖性和与等离子体β值及径向距离的关系，揭示压缩性波动在太阳风加速和加热中的作用。
Solar activity cycle varies in amplitude. The last Cycle 24 is the weakest in the past century. Sun's activity dominates Earth's space environment. The frequency and intensity of the Sun's activity are accordant with the solar cycle. Hence there are practical needs to know the amplitude of the upcoming Cycle 25. The dynamo-based solar cycle predictions not only provide predictions, but also offer an effective way to evaluate our understanding of the solar cycle. In this article we apply the method of the first successful dynamo-based prediction developed for Cycle 24 to the prediction of Cycle…
We analyzed the daily sunspot-group data reported by the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during the period 1874-1976 and Debrecen Photoheligraphic Data (DPD) during the period 1977-2017, and the revised Version-2 of ISSN during the period 1874-2017. We determined the amplitude of the Solar Cycles 12-24 and the 13-month smoothed monthly mean corrected areas of the sunspot groups in the Sun's whole-sphere (WSGA), northern hemisphere (NSGA), and southern hemisphere (SSGA) at the epochs of the maxima of the Solar Cycles 12-24. Using all these we obtained the relations similar to that fou…
Solar cycles vary in their amplitude and shape. There are several empirical relations between various parameters linking cycle's shape and amplitude, in particular the Waldmeier relations. As solar cycle is believed to be a result of the solar dynamo action, these relations require explanation in the framework of this theory.Here we aim to present a possible explanation of such kind. We relate the cycle-to-cycle variability of solar activity to fluctuations of solar dynamo drivers and primarily to fluctuations in the parameter responsible for recovery of the poloidal magnetic field from the to…
The maximum of a solar cycle contain two or more peaks, known as Gnevyshev peaks. Studies of this property of solar cycles may help for better understanding the solar dynamo mechanism. We analysed the 13-month smoothed monthly mean Version-2 international sunspot number (SN) during the period 1874-2017 and found that there exists a good correlation between the amplitude (value of the main and highest peak) and the value of the second maximum (value of the second highest peak) during the maximum of a solar cycle.Using this relationship and the earlier predicted value 86 (~92) of the amplitude o…
There are many proposed prediction methods for solar cycles behavior. In a previous paper we updated the full-shape curve prediction of the current solar cycle 24 using a non-linear dynamics method and we compared the results with the predictions collected by the NOAA/SEC prediction panel, using observed data up to October 2010. The aim of the present paper is to give a quantitative evaluation, a posteriori, of the performances of these prediction methods using a specific global error, updated on a monthly basis, which is a measure of the global performance on the predicted shape (both amplitu…
The Solar Cycle is reviewed. The 11-year cycle of solar activity is characterized by the rise and fall in the numbers and surface area of sunspots. A number of other solar activity indicators also vary in association with the sunspots including; the 10.7cm radio flux, the total solar irradiance, the magnetic field, flares and coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic activity, galactic cosmic ray fluxes, and radioisotopes in tree rings and ice cores. Individual solar cycles are characterized by their maxima and minima, cycle periods and amplitudes, cycle shape, the equatorward drift of the active la…
The prediction of solar activity is important for advanced technologies and space activities. The peak sunspot number (SSN), which can represent the solar activity, has declined continuously in the past four solar cycles (21$-$24), and the Sun would experience a Dalton-like minimum, or even the Maunder-like minimum, if the declining trend continues in the following several cycles, so that the predictions of solar activity for cycles 25 and 26 are crucial. In Qin & Wu, 2018, ApJ, we established an SSN prediction model denoted as two-parameter modified logistic prediction (TMLP) model, which can…
We report on the space weather events of solar cycle 24 in comparison with those during a similar epoch in cycle 23. We find major differences in all space weather events: solar energetic particles, geomagnetic storms, and interplanetary shocks. Dearth of ground level enhancement (GLE) events and major geomagnetic storms during cycle 24 clearly standout. The space weather events seem to reflect the less frequent solar eruptions and the overall weakness of solar cycle 24.
Through meticulous daily observation of the Sun's large-scale magnetic field the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) has catalogued two magnetic (Hale) cycles of solar activity. Those two (~22-year long) Hale cycles have yielded four ($\sim$11-year long) sunspot cycles (numbers 21 through 24). Recent research has highlighted the persistence of the "Extended Solar Cycle" (ESC) and its connection to the fundamental Hale Cycle - albeit through a host of proxies resulting from image analysis of the solar photosphere, chromosphere and corona. This short manuscript presents the correspondence of the ESC,…
The time series of total solar irradiance (TSI) satellite observations since 1978 provided by ACRIM and PMOD TSI composites are studied. We find empirical evidence for planetary-induced forcing and modulation of solar activity. Power spectra and direct data pattern analysis reveal a clear signature of the 1.09-year Earth-Jupiter conjunction cycle, in particular during solar cycle 23 maximum. This appears to suggest that the Jupiter side of the Sun is slightly brighter during solar maxima. The effect is observed when the Earth crosses the Sun-Jupiter conjunction line every 1.09 years. Multiple …
The parameters of the p-mode oscillations vary with solar activity. Such temporal variations provide insights for the study of the structural and dynamical changes occurring in the Sun's interior throughout the solar cycle. We present here a complete picture of the temporal variations of the global p-mode parameters (excitation, damping, frequency, peak asymmetry, and rotational splitting) over the entire solar cycle 23 and the beginning of cycle 24 as observed by the space-based, Sun-as-a-star helioseismic GOLF and VIRGO instruments onboard SoHO.
Solar variability occurs over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales, from the Sun's brightening over its lifetime to the fluctuations commonly associated with magnetic activity over minutes to years. The latter activity includes most prominently the 11-year sunspot solar cycle and its modulations. Space weather events, in the form of solar flares, solar energetic particles, coronal mass ejections, and geomagnetic storms, have long been known to approximately follow the solar cycle occurring more frequently at solar maximum than solar minimum. These events can significantly impact our ad…
We study the differences in the heavy ion composition of solar energetic particle (SEP) events between solar cycles 23 and 24. We have surveyed the SOHO/ERNE heavy ion data from the beginning of solar cycle 23 until the end of June 2015, that is, well into the declining phase of cycle 24. We used this long observation period to study the properties of heavy ions (from C to Fe) and to compare the two solar cycles in this respect. We surveyed the data for SEP events with enhancements in the Fe/C and Fe/O intensity ratios in the energy range 5-15 MeV per nucleon, and associated the events with so…
The evolution of the solar activity comprises, apart from the well-known 11-year cycle, various temporal scales ranging from months up to the secondary cycles known as mid-term oscillations. Its nature deserves a physical explanation. In this work, we consider the 5-to-6 year oscillations as derived both from sunspot and from solar magnetic dipole time series. Using the solar dynamo model, we deduced that these variations may be a manifestation of the dynamo nonlinearities and non-harmonic shape of the solar activity cycles. We conclude that the observed mid-term oscillations are related to th…
Solar activity forecasting is an important topic for numerous scientific and technological areas, such as space mission operations, electric power transmission lines, power transformation stations and earth geophysical and climatic impact. Nevertheless, the well-known difficulty is how to accurately predict, on the basis of various recorded solar activity indices, the complete evolution of future solar cycles, due to highly complex dynamical and stochastic processes involved, mainly related to interaction of different components of internal magnetic fields. There are two main distinct classes …
The solar cycle onset at mid-latitudes, the slow down of the sunspot drift toward the equator, the tail-like attachment and the overlap of successive cycles at the time of activity minimum are delicate issues in $αΩ$ dynamo wave and flux transport dynamo models. Very different parameter values produce similar results, making it difficult to understand the origin of these solar cycle properties. We use GONG helioseismic data to investigate the progression of the solar cycle as observed in intermediate-degree global $p$-mode frequency shifts at different latitudes and subsurface layers, from the…
A new formula for predicting solar cycles based on the current theoretical understanding of the solar cycle from flux transport dynamo is presented. Two important processes---fluctuations in the Babcock-Leighton mechanism and variations in the meridional circulation, which are believed to be responsible for irregularities of the solar cycle---are constrained by using observational data. We take the polar field near minima of the cycle as a measure of the randomness in the Babcock-Leighton process, and the decay rate near the minima as a consequence of the change in meridional circulation. We c…
By using the unique database of SOHO/MDI full disk magnetograms from 1996 September to 2011 January, covering the entire solar cycle 23, we analyze the time-variability of the solar magnetic flux spectrum and study the properties of extended minimum of cycle 23. We totally identify 11.5 million magnetic structures. It has been revealed that magnetic features with different magnetic fluxes exhibit different cycle behaviors. The magnetic features with flux larger than $4.0 \times 10^{19}$ Mx, which cover solar active regions and strong network features, show exactly the same variation as sunspot…
The correlation between solar irradiance and the 11-year solar activity cycle is evident in the body of measurements made from space, which extend over the past four decades. Models relating variation in solar irradiance to photospheric magnetism have made significant progress in explaining most of the apparent trends in these observations. There are, however, persistent discrepancies between different measurements and models in terms of the absolute radiometry, secular variation and the spectral dependence of the solar cycle variability. We present an overview of solar irradiance measurements…
Helical distributed chaos in magnetic field has been studied using results of direct numerical simulations (dominated by magnetic helicity), of a laboratory experiment with plasma wind tunnel and of solar wind measurements (dominated by combined magnetic and cross helicity effects). The solar wind measurements, used for the spectral computations, were produced by Helios-1 and Ulysses missions for low and high heliolatitudes respectively and for high solar wind speed at $0.4 < R <4.5$ AU (where $R$ is distance from the Sun).
We analyzed the daily sunspot-group data reported by the Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during the period 1874-1976 and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during the period 1977-2017 and studied North-South asymmetry in the maxima and minima of the Solar Cycles 12-24. We derived the time series of the 13-month smoothed monthly mean corrected whole-spot areas of the sunspot groups in the Sun's whole sphere (WSGA), northern hemisphere (NSGA), and southern hemisphere (SSGA). From these smoothed time series we obtained the values of the maxima and minima, and the corresponding epochs…
The study of variations in solar activity is important for understanding the underlying mechanism of solar activity and for predicting the level of activity in view of the activity impact on space weather and global climate. Here we have used the amplitudes (the peak values of the 13-month smoothed international sunspot number) of Solar Cycles 1-24 to predict the relative amplitudes of the solar cycles during the rising phase of the upcoming Gleissberg cycle. We fitted a cosine function to the amplitudes and times of the solar cycles after subtracting a linear fit of the amplitudes. The best c…
Based on analysis of the annual averaged relative sunspot number (ASN) during 1700 -- 2009, 3 kinds of solar cycles are confirmed: the well-known 11-yr cycle (Schwabe cycle), 103-yr secular cycle (numbered as G1, G2, G3, and G4, respectively since 1700); and 51.5-yr Cycle. From similarities, an extrapolation of forthcoming solar cycles is made, and found that the solar cycle 24 will be a relative long and weak Schwabe cycle, which may reach to its apex around 2012-2014 in the vale between G3 and G4. Additionally, most Schwabe cycles are asymmetric with rapidly rising-phases and slowly decay-ph…
