活动区对太阳活动周期贡献的代数量化
Algebraic quantification of an active region's contribution to the solar cycle
摘要：
周期最小值的太阳偶极矩被认为是下一个周期振幅的最成功的前兆。表面通量输运（SFT）模式的数值模拟被广泛用于有效地预测周期极小值时的偶极矩。最近提出了一种代数方法来快速预测活动区（AR）对轴向偶极矩在周期最小值的贡献，而不是SFT模拟。然而，该方法假设AR的双极磁性区域（BMR）配置。实际上，大多数AR在相反极性的配置中是不对称的，或者具有更复杂的配置。这样的AR的演变显着不同的BMR近似。我们提出了一种广义代数方法来描述的轴向偶极子的贡献与任意配置的AR，并评估其有效性相比，基于BMR的方法。我们采用数学推导得到的一般方法。我们比较的结果与SFT模拟观察到的AR，人工创建的BMR，AR与更复杂的配置的广义方法。我们还比较了结果与基于BMR的方法。广义方法与SFT模型等价，并精确地预测了AR对偶极矩的贡献。该方法具有更高的计算效率比SFT模拟。虽然基于BMR的方法具有与广义方法相似的计算效率，但它仅对对称双极AR准确。基于BMR的方法系统地高估了非对称双极AR的偶极子贡献，并随机地错误计算了更复杂AR的贡献。广义方法提供了一个快速和精确的量化的AR的贡献，太阳周期的演变，这铺平了道路的应用到基于物理的太阳周期预测。
英文摘要：
The solar dipole moment at cycle minimum is considered to be the most successful precursor for the amplitude of the subsequent cycle. Numerical simulations of the surface flux transport (SFT) model are widely used to effectively predict the dipole moment at cycle minimum. Recently an algebraic method has been proposed to quickly predict the contribution of an active region (AR) to the axial dipole moment at cycle minimum instead of SFT simulations. However, the method assumes a bipolar magnetic region (BMR) configuration of ARs. Actually most ARs are asymmetric in configuration of opposite polarities, or have more complex configurations. Such ARs evolve significantly differently from that of BMR approximations. We propose a generalized algebraic method to describe the axial dipole contribution of an AR with an arbitrary configuration, and evaluate its effectiveness compared to the BMR-based method. We employ mathematical deductions to obtain the generalized method. We compare the results of the generalized method with SFT simulations of observed ARs, artificially created BMRs, and ARs with more complex configurations. We also compare the results with that from the BMR-based method. The generalized method is equivalent to the SFT model, and precisely predicts the ARs' contributions to the dipole moment. The method has a much higher computational efficiency than SFT simulations. Although the BMR-based method has similar computational efficiency as the generalized method, it is only accurate for symmetric bipolar ARs. The BMR-based method systematically overestimates the dipole contributions of asymmetric bipolar ARs, and randomly miscalculate the contributions of more complex ARs. The generalized method provides a quick and precise quantification of an AR's contribution to the solar cycle evolution, which paves the way for the application into the physics-based solar cycle prediction.
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