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arXiv 2104.02769stat.MEstat.APstat.ML
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协变量和结局均缺失数据的变量选择:插补和机器学习

Variable selection with missing data in both covariates and outcomes: Imputation and machine learning

Liangyuan Hu, Jung-Yi Joyce Lin, Jiayi Ji

摘要:

缺失数据问题在健康研究中普遍存在。同时存在缺失协变量和结果的变量选择是一个重要的统计研究课题,但研究较少。现有的文献集中在参数回归技术,提供直接的参数估计的回归模型。灵活的非参数机器学习方法大大减轻了对参数假设的依赖,但不提供自然定义的变量重要性度量作为参数模型的协变量效应。当协变量和结果都可以随机缺失并且具有一般的缺失数据模式时,我们研究了一般的变量选择方法。这种方法利用了机器学习建模技术和自举插补的灵活性,这适用于协变量效应不可直接获得的非参数方法。我们进行了广泛的模拟调查的实际操作特性的变量选择方法,当结合四个基于树的机器学习方法,XGBoost,随机森林,贝叶斯加性回归树(BART)和条件随机森林,和两个常用的参数方法,套索和向后逐步选择。数值结果表明,当与bootstrap插补相结合时,XGBoost和BART在各种设置中的$F_1$评分和第一类错误方面具有总体最佳的变量选择性能。一般来说,由于插补方法,变量选择性能没有显著差异。我们利用全国妇女健康研究的数据,通过代谢综合征3年发病率风险因素的案例研究进一步证明了这些方法。

英文摘要:

The missing data issue is ubiquitous in health studies. Variable selection in the presence of both missing covariates and outcomes is an important statistical research topic but has been less studied. Existing literature focuses on parametric regression techniques that provide direct parameter estimates of the regression model. Flexible nonparametric machine learning methods considerably mitigate the reliance on the parametric assumptions, but do not provide as naturally defined variable importance measure as the covariate effect native to parametric models. We investigate a general variable selection approach when both the covariates and outcomes can be missing at random and have general missing data patterns. This approach exploits the flexibility of machine learning modeling techniques and bootstrap imputation, which is amenable to nonparametric methods in which the covariate effects are not directly available. We conduct expansive simulations investigating the practical operating characteristics of the proposed variable selection approach, when combined with four tree-based machine learning methods, XGBoost, Random Forests, Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) and Conditional Random Forests, and two commonly used parametric methods, lasso and backward stepwise selection. Numeric results suggest that when combined with bootstrap imputation, XGBoost and BART have the overall best variable selection performance with respect to the $F_1$ score and Type I error across various settings. In general, there is no significant difference in the variable selection performance due to imputation methods. We further demonstrate the methods via a case study of risk factors for 3-year incidence of metabolic syndrome with data from the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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