饥荒对当今中国的持续影响：来自亿万富翁的证据
The Persistent Effect of Famine on Present-Day China: Evidence from the Billionaires
摘要：
中国大饥荒（1959-1961年）已经过去了半个多世纪，中国已经从一个贫穷、不发达的国家转变为世界领先的新兴经济体。饥荒的影响持续到今天吗？为了探讨这个问题，我们结合省级饥荒风险的历史数据与当代个人财富数据。为了更好地理解这种关系是否是因果关系，我们同时解释了著名的历史证据，即饥荒中幸存者和在此期间出生的人所产生的选择效应，以及一个省暴露于饥荒的内循环问题。我们发现了强有力的证据表明，饥荒暴露对这一时期出生的个人的当代财富产生了相当大的负面影响。总之，证据表明，饥荒对财富产生了负面影响，甚至在当今中国最富有的人群中也存在这种影响。
英文摘要：
More than half a century has passed since the Great Chinese Famine (1959-1961), and China has transformed from a poor, underdeveloped country to the world's leading emerging economy. Does the effect of the famine persist today? To explore this question, we combine historical data on province-level famine exposure with contemporary data on individual wealth. To better understand if the relationship is causal, we simultaneously account for the well-known historical evidence on the selection effect arising for those who survive the famine and those born during this period, as well as the issue of endogeneity on the exposure of a province to the famine. We find robust evidence showing that famine exposure has had a considerable negative effect on the contemporary wealth of individuals born during this period. Together, the evidence suggests that the famine had an adverse effect on wealth, and it is even present among the wealthiest cohort of individuals in present-day China.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
