动态系统模型预测社会学习者何时损害集体绩效
Dynamical-System Model Predicts When Social Learners Impair Collective Performance
摘要：
关于集体决策的一个关键问题是，当一些成员向其他成员学习而不是自己评估选项时，社会系统是否能够确定最佳选项。这个问题的研究是具有挑战性的，以前的研究已经得出了混合的结论，因为集体决策的结果取决于认知策略，任务属性和社会影响过程的复杂系统的理解不足。这项研究将这些复杂的相互作用结合在一起，在一个一般的，但部分分析易于处理的数学框架，使用动力系统模型。特别是，它调查的社会学习者的比例，选项的相对优点，以及符合性反应的类型的相互作用如何影响集体决策结果在一个二元选择。该模型预测，当社会学习者的比例超过一个临界阈值时，会出现一个双稳态，在这个双稳态中，大多数人最终会倾向于选择更高或更低的价值，这取决于波动和初始条件。在这一门槛以下，多数人选择高价值的选项。临界阈值由一致性响应函数和两个选项的相对优点确定。这项研究有助于调和社会学习者对集体表现的影响的分歧，并提出了一个数学框架，可以很容易地适应调查更广泛的各种动态扩展。
英文摘要：
A key question concerning collective decisions is whether a social system can settle on the best available option when some members learn from others instead of evaluating the options on their own. This question is challenging to study, and previous research has reached mixed conclusions, because collective decision outcomes depend on the insufficiently understood complex system of cognitive strategies, task properties, and social influence processes. This study integrates these complex interactions together in one general yet partially analytically tractable mathematical framework using a dynamical system model. In particular, it investigates how the interplay of the proportion of social learners, the relative merit of options, and the type of conformity response affect collective decision outcomes in a binary choice. The model predicts that when the proportion of social learners exceeds a critical threshold, a bi-stable state appears in which the majority can end up favoring either the higher- or lower-merit option, depending on fluctuations and initial conditions. Below this threshold, the high-merit option is chosen by the majority. The critical threshold is determined by the conformity response function and the relative merits of the two options. The study helps reconcile disagreements about the effect of social learners on collective performance and proposes a mathematical framework that can be readily adapted to extensions investigating a wider variety of dynamics.
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