什么时候结束封锁？疫苗接种运动必须以多快的速度进行，以控制卫生成本？
When to end a lock down? How fast must vaccination campaigns proceed in order to keep health costs in check?
摘要：
我们提出了一个简单的经验法则，为那些已经开始接种疫苗的国家，同时仍然面临着需要保持非药物干预措施（NPI），因为SARS-CoV-2的持续传播。如果目标是防止死亡率上升，那么当有可能接种超过新病例增长率两倍的疫苗时，就可以放松NPI。如果目的是控制医院的压力，疫苗接种率必须提高四倍左右。这些简单的规则可以从以下观察中得出：COVID-19感染导致死亡或需要住院治疗的严重病程的风险随年龄呈指数级增加，而年龄组的规模在人口金字塔的顶部呈线性下降。60岁以上的老年人约占欧洲（和大多数经合组织国家）人口的四分之一，保护他们可以将潜在的生命损失减少95%。
英文摘要：
We propose a simple rule of thumb for countries which have embarked on a vaccination campaign while still facing the need to keep non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) in place because of the ongoing spread of SARS-CoV-2. If the aim is to keep the death rate from increasing, NPIs can be loosened when it is possible to vaccinate more than twice the growth rate of new cases. If the aim is to keep the pressure on hospitals under control, the vaccination rate has to be about four times higher. These simple rules can be derived from the observation that the risk of death or a severe course requiring hospitalization from a COVID-19 infection increases exponentially with age and that the sizes of age cohorts decrease linearly at the top of the population pyramid. Protecting the over 60-year-olds, which constitute approximately one-quarter of the population in Europe (and most OECD countries), reduces the potential loss of life by 95 percent.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
