时间不一致偏好下风险投资的最优退出决策
Optimal exit decision of venture capital under time-inconsistent preferences
摘要：
本文提出了两种时间不一致偏好（时间流不一致和临界时点不一致），以进一步推进风险投资退出决策的研究。与时间一致偏好不同，时间不一致偏好假设决策者偏好近期收益而非未来收益。基于风险投资家对未来偏好的理解，我们考虑了四种类型的风险投资家，即时间一致的风险投资家、只意识到临界时间点不一致的风险投资家、幼稚的风险投资家和成熟的风险投资家，其中后三种风险投资家是时间不一致的。所有类型的时间不一致风险投资家都知道关键时间点的不一致性。天真的风险投资家误解了时间流的不一致性，而老练的风险投资家则正确地理解了这一点。提出了一个风险投资最优退出时机模型。然后，我们推导并比较了上述四种类型的风险投资家的退出门槛。主要研究结果如下：（1）所有类型的时间不一致风险投资家都比时间一致风险投资家更倾向于提前退出。(2)风险投资家延迟退出的可能性越大，但延迟程度依次减小（只意识到临界时间点不一致的风险投资家>幼稚风险投资家>成熟风险投资家）。
英文摘要：
This paper proposes two kinds of time-inconsistent preferences (i.e. time flow inconsistency and critical time point inconsistency) to further advance the research on the exit decision of venture capital. Time-inconsistent preference, different from time-consistent preference, assumes that decision makers prefer recent returns rather than future returns. Based on venture capitalists' understanding of future preferences, we consider four types of venture capitalists, namely time-consistent venture capitalists, venture capitalists who only realize critical time point inconsistency, naive venture capitalists and sophisticated venture capitalists, of which the latter three are time-inconsistent. All types of time-inconsistent venture capitalists are aware of critical time point inconsistency. Naive venture capitalists misunderstand time flow inconsistency while sophisticated ones understand it correctly. We propose an optimal exit timing of venture capital model. Then we derive and compare the above four types of venture capitalists' exit thresholds. The main results are as follows: (1) all types of time-inconsistent venture capitalists tend to exit earlier than time-consistent venture capitalists. (2) The longer the expire date are, the more likely venture capitalists are to delay the exit, but the delay degree decreases successively (venture capitalists who only realize critical time point inconsistency > naive venture capitalists > sophisticated venture capitalists).
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
