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arXiv 2103.07200stat.MEecon.EMstat.AP
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多类型特征选择的混合复合回归模型

Mixture composite regression models with multi-type feature selection

Tsz Chai Fung, George Tzougas, Mario Wuthrich

摘要:

本文的目的是提出一个混合复合回归模型的索赔严重性建模。索赔严重性建模提出了几个挑战,如多模态,重尾性和数据的系统性影响。我们解决这个建模问题,通过研究一个混合复合回归模型的同时建模的损耗和大额索赔,并考虑系统的影响,在混合物成分以及混合概率。对于模型拟合,我们提出了一种组融合正则化方法,允许我们选择解释变量,显着影响混合概率和不同的混合成分,分别。我们开发了一个渐近理论,这种正规化的估计方法,并使用一种新的广义期望最大化算法进行拟合。我们在真实的汽车保险数据集上验证了我们的方法。

英文摘要:

The aim of this paper is to present a mixture composite regression model for claim severity modelling. Claim severity modelling poses several challenges such as multimodality, heavy-tailedness and systematic effects in data. We tackle this modelling problem by studying a mixture composite regression model for simultaneous modeling of attritional and large claims, and for considering systematic effects in both the mixture components as well as the mixing probabilities. For model fitting, we present a group-fused regularization approach that allows us for selecting the explanatory variables which significantly impact the mixing probabilities and the different mixture components, respectively. We develop an asymptotic theory for this regularized estimation approach, and fitting is performed using a novel Generalized Expectation-Maximization algorithm. We exemplify our approach on real motor insurance data set.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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