A Tree-based Model Averaging Approach for Personalized Treatment Effect Estimation from Heterogeneous Data Sources
University of Pittsburgh（匹兹堡大学）；Southwestern University of Finance and Economics（西南财经大学）
Xiaoqing Tan, Chung-Chou H. Chang, Ling Zhou, Lu Tang
备注：
Accepted at ICML 2022. Previously titled "A Tree-based Federated Learning Approach for Personalized Treatment Effect Estimation from Heterogeneous Data Sources"
Accurately estimating personalized treatment effects within a study site (e.g., a hospital) has been challenging due to limited sample size. Furthermore, privacy considerations and lack of resources prevent a site from leveraging subject-level data from other sites. We propose a tree-based model averaging approach to improve the estimation accuracy of conditional average treatment effects (CATE) at a target site by leveraging models derived from other potentially heterogeneous sites, without them sharing subject-level data. To our best knowledge, there is no established model averaging approach for distributed data with a focus on improving the estimation of treatment effects. Specifically, under distributed data networks, our framework provides an interpretable tree-based ensemble of CATE estimators that joins models across study sites, while actively modeling the heterogeneity in data sources through site partitioning. The performance of this approach is demonstrated by a real-world study of the causal effects of oxygen therapy on hospital survival rate and backed up by comprehensive simulation results.
Peter the Great St.Petersburg Polytechnic University (SPbPU)（彼得大帝圣彼得堡理工大学）
A new meta-algorithm for estimating the conditional average treatment effects is proposed in the paper. The main idea underlying the algorithm is to consider a new dataset consisting of feature vectors produced by means of concatenation of examples from control and treatment groups, which are close to each other. Outcomes of new data are defined as the difference between outcomes of the corresponding examples comprising new feature vectors. The second idea is based on the assumption that the number of controls is rather large and the control outcome function is precisely determined. This assum…
We investigate the finite sample performance of sample splitting, cross-fitting and averaging for the estimation of the conditional average treatment effect. Recently proposed methods, so-called meta-learners, make use of machine learning to estimate different nuisance functions and hence allow for fewer restrictions on the underlying structure of the data. To limit a potential overfitting bias that may result when using machine learning methods, cross-fitting estimators have been proposed. This includes the splitting of the data in different folds to reduce bias and averaging over folds to re…
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；Meta；University of Vienna（维也纳大学）
Black-box heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) models are increasingly being used to create personalized policies that assign individuals to their optimal treatments. However, they are difficult to understand, and can be burdensome to maintain in a production environment. In this paper, we present a scalable, interpretable personalized experimentation system, implemented and deployed in production at Meta. The system works in a multiple treatment, multiple outcome setting typical at Meta to: (1) learn explanations for black-box HTE models; (2) generate interpretable personalized policies. We e…
In federated learning, differences in the data or objectives between the participating nodes motivate approaches to train a personalized machine learning model for each node. One such approach is weighted averaging between a locally trained model and the global model. In this theoretical work, we study weighted model averaging for arbitrary scalar mean estimation problems under minimal assumptions on the distributions. In a variant of the bias-variance trade-off, we find that there is always some positive amount of model averaging that reduces the expected squared error compared to the local m…
Resource scheduling and coordination is an NP-hard optimization requiring an efficient allocation of agents to a set of tasks with upper- and lower bound temporal and resource constraints. Due to the large-scale and dynamic nature of resource coordination in hospitals and factories, human domain experts manually plan and adjust schedules on the fly. To perform this job, domain experts leverage heterogeneous strategies and rules-of-thumb honed over years of apprenticeship. What is critically needed is the ability to extract this domain knowledge in a heterogeneous and interpretable apprenticesh…
For assistive robots and virtual agents to achieve ubiquity, machines will need to anticipate the needs of their human counterparts. The field of Learning from Demonstration (LfD) has sought to enable machines to infer predictive models of human behavior for autonomous robot control. However, humans exhibit heterogeneity in decision-making, which traditional LfD approaches fail to capture. To overcome this challenge, we propose a Bayesian LfD framework to infer an integrated representation of all human task demonstrators by inferring human-specific embeddings, thereby distilling their unique c…
Adaptive collaboration for online personalized distributed learning with heterogeneous clients
Argo Team, Inria Paris - Département d’informatique de l’ENS, PSL Research University（Argo团队，Inria巴黎，信息学院，PSL研究大学）；Univ. Lille, Inria, CNRS, Centrale Lille, UMR 9189, CRIStAL（里尔大学，Inria，国家科学研究中心，里尔中央理工大学，UMR 9189，CRIStAL）
We study Byzantine collaborative learning, where $n$ nodes seek to collectively learn from each others' local data. The data distribution may vary from one node to another. No node is trusted, and $f < n$ nodes can behave arbitrarily. We prove that collaborative learning is equivalent to a new form of agreement, which we call averaging agreement. In this problem, nodes start each with an initial vector and seek to approximately agree on a common vector, which is close to the average of honest nodes' initial vectors. We present two asynchronous solutions to averaging agreement, each we prove op…
Federated learning (FL) can help promote data privacy by training a shared model in a de-centralized manner on the physical devices of clients. In the presence of highly heterogeneous distributions of local data, personalized FL strategy seeks to mitigate the potential client drift. In this paper, we present the group personalization approach for applications of FL in which there exist inherent partitions among clients that are significantly distinct. In our method, the global FL model is fine-tuned through another FL training process over each homogeneous group of clients, after which each gr…
KAIST（韩国科学技术院）；AITRICS；Yonsei University College of Medicine（延世大学医学院）
We present a personalized and reliable prediction model for healthcare, which can provide individually tailored medical services such as diagnosis, disease treatment, and prevention. Our proposed framework targets at making personalized and reliable predictions from time-series data, such as Electronic Health Records (EHR), by modeling two complementary components: i) a shared component that captures global trend across diverse patients and ii) a patient-specific component that models idiosyncratic variability for each patient. To this end, we propose a composite model of a deep neural network…
