专业消费者行为：有限视野下的决策
Prosumer Behavior: Decision Making with Bounded Horizon
摘要：
在智能电网中，大多数关于产消者决策的研究都集中在期望效用理论（EUT）和行为理论（如前景理论）框架内的单个时间离散决策上。在这项工作中，我们研究在一个更自然的，持续的市场情况下，生产消费者每天都要决定是否出售任何剩余的能源单位产生的太阳能电池板在她的屋顶或持有（存储）能源单位在未来以更好的价格出售的预期。在这种情况下，我们提出了一个新的行为模型，扩展EUT考虑到一个有限的时间范围内的各种决策参数的概念。具体来说，我们引入了一个有界的时间窗口（即将到来的天数，在此期间，一个prosumer评估的概率，每个可能的价格将是最高的），prosumers隐含地施加在他们的决策，在到达持有或出售的决定。新的行为模型假设人类在有限的时间窗口内做出影响他们生活的决定，而不管他们的单位在未来多久会被出售。建模的公用事业的产消者使用的参数，如提供的价格在一天内，能源单位的数量的产消者可供出售的一天，和预测价格的概率，我们适合传统的EUT和建议的行为模型与有界的时间窗口收集的数据从57个房主超过68天的模拟能源市场。每个产消者产生剩余的太阳能单位，并有机会以公用事业公司当天设定的价格将这些单位出售给当地公用事业公司，或持有这些单位供未来出售。对于大多数参与者来说，4-5天范围内的有界范围比传统（无界）EUT模型更适合他们的响应
英文摘要：
Most studies of prosumer decision making in the smart grid have focused on single, temporally discrete decisions within the framework of expected utility theory (EUT) and behavioral theories such as prospect theory. In this work, we study prosumer decision making in a more natural, ongoing market situation in which a prosumer has to decide every day whether to sell any surplus energy units generated by the solar panels on her roof or hold (store) the energy units in anticipation of a future sale at a better price. Within this context, we propose a new behavioral model that extends EUT to take into account the notion of a bounded temporal horizon over which various decision parameters are considered. Specifically, we introduce the notion of a bounded time window (the number of upcoming days over which a prosumer evaluates the probability that each possible price will be the highest) that prosumers implicitly impose on their decision making in arriving at hold or sell decisions. The new behavioral model assumes that humans make decisions that will affect their lives within a bounded time window regardless of how far into the future their units may be sold. Modeling the utility of the prosumer using parameters such as the offered price on a day, the number of energy units the prosumer has available for sale on a day, and the probabilities of the forecast prices, we fit both traditional EUT and the proposed behavioral model with bounded time windows to data collected from 57 homeowners over 68 days in a simulated energy market. Each prosumer generated surplus units of solar power and had the opportunity to sell those units to the local utility at the price set that day by the utility or hold the units for sale in the future. For most participants, a bounded horizon in the range of 4-5 days provided a much better fit to their responses than was found for the traditional (unbounded) EUT model
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