意大利北部是否存在COVID-19收割效应？
Was there a COVID-19 harvesting effect in Northern Italy?
摘要：
我们研究了收获效应的可能性，即与COVID-19大流行相关的死亡率暂时前移，方法是观察意大利北部地区的超额死亡率趋势，该地区在第一波疫情期间是世界上死亡人数最高的地区之一。无论是在第一波疫情放缓后的夏季月份，还是在第二波疫情开始时，我们都没有发现任何证据表明COVID-19产生了相当大的收获效应。根据我们的估计，在整个审查期间（2020年2月至11月），意大利北部城市检测到的超额死亡总数中只有一小部分可归因于COVID-19的预期作用。在受影响最严重的地区（特别是贝加莫省和布雷西亚省），发现的比例略高，但即使在这些地区，收获效应也只能占超额死亡人数的不到20%。此外，在第二波开始时在这些地区观察到的较低死亡率可能是由于收获效应以外的几个因素，包括行为变化和某种程度的暂时群体免疫。短期死亡率转移的情况非常有限，这再次说明需要采取遏制政策，尽量减少这一流行病对健康的影响。
英文摘要：
We investigate the possibility of a harvesting effect, i.e. a temporary forward shift in mortality, associated with the COVID-19 pandemic by looking at the excess mortality trends of an area that registered one of the highest death tolls in the world during the first wave, Northern Italy. We do not find any evidence of a sizable COVID-19 harvesting effect, neither in the summer months after the slowdown of the first wave nor at the beginning of the second wave. According to our estimates, only a minor share of the total excess deaths detected in Northern Italian municipalities over the entire period under scrutiny (February - November 2020) can be attributed to an anticipatory role of COVID-19. A slightly higher share is detected for the most severely affected areas (the provinces of Bergamo and Brescia, in particular), but even in these territories, the harvesting effect can only account for less than 20% of excess deaths. Furthermore, the lower mortality rates observed in these areas at the beginning of the second wave may be due to several factors other than a harvesting effect, including behavioral change and some degree of temporary herd immunity. The very limited presence of short-run mortality displacement restates the case for containment policies aimed at minimizing the health impacts of the pandemic.
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