提高SARS-CoV-2流行病关键参数估计效率的空间抽样设计
Spatial sampling design to improve the efficiency of the estimation of the critical parameters of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic
摘要：
与COVID-19感染相关的大流行对许多试图防止其全球传播的医学研究人员来说是一个前所未有的临床和医疗挑战。这一大流行病也是参与量化这一现象和及时提供监测和监视大流行病关键参数的工具的统计人员面临的重大挑战。Alleva et al.（2020）在最近的一篇论文中提出了两阶段样本设计，以构建一个连续时间监测系统，旨在通过间接采样机制正确量化感染者数量，该机制可以随着时间的推移分几波重复，以捕获疫情发展不同阶段的不同目标变量。所提出的方法利用了间接采样（Lavalle，2007; Kiesl，2016）方法，用于估计稀有和难以捉摸的种群（Borchers，2009; Lavallée和Rivest，2012）和捕获/再捕获机制（Sudman，1988; Thompson和Seber，1996）。在本文中，我们扩展了Alleva等人的提议。（2020）包括空间采样机制（Müller，1998; Grafström等人，2012年，Jauslin和Tillè，2020年），以便在数据收集过程中以较少的抽样单位达到同样的精确度，从而在及时性和成本是关键因素的情况下促进数据收集过程。我们提出了新的样本设计的基本思想，分析证明了相关估计的理论性质，并通过系统的模拟研究，其中所有的典型元素的流行病占的相对优势。
英文摘要：
The pandemic linked to COVID-19 infection represents an unprecedented clinical and healthcare challenge for many medical researchers attempting to prevent its worldwide spread. This pandemic also represents a major challenge for statisticians involved in quantifying the phenomenon and in offering timely tools for the monitoring and surveillance of critical pandemic parameters. In a recent paper, Alleva et al. (2020) proposed a two-stage sample design to build a continuous-time surveillance system designed to correctly quantify the number of infected people through an indirect sampling mechanism that could be repeated in several waves over time to capture different target variables in the different stages of epidemic development. The proposed method exploits the indirect sampling (Lavalle, 2007; Kiesl, 2016) method employed in the estimation of rare and elusive populations (Borchers, 2009; Lavallée and Rivest, 2012) and a capture/recapture mechanism (Sudman, 1988; Thompson and Seber, 1996). In this paper, we extend the proposal of Alleva et al. (2020) to include a spatial sampling mechanism (Müller, 1998; Grafström et al., 2012, Jauslin and Tillè, 2020) in the process of data collection to achieve the same level of precision with fewer sample units, thereby facilitating the process of data collection in a situation where timeliness and costs are crucial elements. We present the basic idea of the new sample design, analytically prove the theoretical properties of the associated estimators and show the relative advantages through a systematic simulation study where all the typical elements of an epidemic are accounted for.
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