决策的结构模型：应对参数不确定性
Structural models for policy-making: Coping with parametric uncertainty
摘要：
使用结构计量经济学模型对政策进行事前评价的依据是作为真实参数替代的估计参数。这种做法忽略了模型中反事实政策预测的不确定性。我们开发了一个通用的方法，处理参数的不确定性，使用不确定性集和框架模型知情的决策作为一个决策问题下的不确定性。基恩和沃尔平（Keane and Wolpin，1997）开创性的人力资本投资模型提供了一个著名的、有影响力的、有实践基础的测试案例。我们记录了相当大的不确定性模型的政策预测，并强调所产生的政策建议，从使用不同的正式规则下的不确定性决策。
英文摘要：
The ex-ante evaluation of policies using structural econometric models is based on estimated parameters as a stand-in for the true parameters. This practice ignores uncertainty in the counterfactual policy predictions of the model. We develop a generic approach that deals with parametric uncertainty using uncertainty sets and frames model-informed policy-making as a decision problem under uncertainty. The seminal human capital investment model by Keane and Wolpin (1997) provides a well-known, influential, and empirically-grounded test case. We document considerable uncertainty in the models's policy predictions and highlight the resulting policy recommendations obtained from using different formal rules of decision-making under uncertainty.
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