在气候变化下估计北部和平-阿萨巴斯卡三角洲冰塞洪水频率的耦合物理理解和统计模拟
Coupling physical understanding and statistical modeling to estimate ice jam flood frequency in the northern Peace-Athabasca Delta under climate change
摘要：
阿尔伯塔省西北部的和平-阿萨巴斯卡三角洲（PAD）是世界上最大的内陆淡水三角洲之一，位于和平河和阿萨巴斯卡河的交汇处。PAD被认为具有独特的生态意义，两条河流的周期性冰塞洪水是其当前生态的重要特征。过去的研究一直在争论和平河上冰塞洪水（IJF）频率最近是否发生了变化，以及哪些因素可能导致任何感知到的变化。本研究通过解决两个问题来促进这一辩论：（1）哪些因素最能预测和平河IJF，以及（2）气候变化如何影响IJF频率？这项工作开始于一个物理为基础的概念模型的必要条件，为一个大的和平河IJF，以及表明这些条件是否得到满足的因素。逻辑斯谛回归应用于历史洪水记录，以确定水文气候和河流因素的组合最好地预测IJFs和这些关系的不确定性给定的可用数据。冬季降水和温度是最有预测力的和平河IJF，而封冻海拔包含的预测能力很小，是不密切相关的IJF发生。最好的逻辑斯谛回归模型是被迫与缩小尺度的气候变化情景从多个气候模式的项目IJF频率为各种合理的未来。最佳逻辑斯谛回归模型中的参数不确定性通过使用参数自举法对许多合理的统计模型进行采样而传播到投影中。尽管排放情景和气候模型之间存在差异，但所有预测都表明，未来几十年，和平河IJF的频率可能会大幅下降，未来IJF之间的平均等待时间可能会超过最近的经验。
英文摘要：
The Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD) of northwestern Alberta is one of the largest inland freshwater deltas in the world, laying at the confluence of the Peace and Athabasca Rivers. The PAD is recognized as a having unique ecological significance and periodic ice jam flooding from both rivers is an important feature of its current ecology. Past studies have debated whether a change in ice jam flood (IJF) frequency on the Peace River has recently occurred, and what factors might be driving any perceived changes. This study contributes to this debate by addressing two questions: (1) what factors are most predictive of Peace River IJFs, and (2) how might climate change impact IJF frequency? This work starts with a physically-based conceptual model of the necessary conditions for a large Peace River IJF, and the factors that indicate whether those conditions are met. Logistic regression is applied to the historical flood record to determine which combination of hydroclimatic and riverine factors best predict IJFs and the uncertainty in those relationships given the available data. Winter precipitation and temperature are most predictive of Peace River IJFs, while freeze-up elevation contains little predictive power and is not closely related to IJF occurrence. The best logistic regression model is forced with downscaled climate change scenarios from multiple climate models to project IJF frequency for a variety of plausible futures. Parametric uncertainty in the best logistic regression model is propagated into the projections using a parametric bootstrap to sample many plausible statistical models. Although there is variability across emissions scenarios and climate models, all projections indicate that the frequency of Peace River IJFs is likely to decrease substantially in the coming decades, and that average waiting times between future IJFs will likely surpass recent experience.
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