英格兰和威尔士COVID-19的人口密度和传播
Population Density and Spreading of COVID-19 in England and Wales
摘要：
我们调查了英格兰和威尔士337个下级地方当局地区的每日COVID-19病例和死亡人数，以更好地了解该疾病在15个月期间的传播情况。人口密度缩放模型显示，剩余方差和偏度是敏感的指标的动态传播。封锁和学校重新开放引发的差异增加，表明疫情具有地方影响和国家规模的异质性。大学重开及12月假期导致差异减少，显示国家规模的同质化，并于2021年1月中旬达到最低水平。均匀传播与正态分布残差的对应关系更好，而非均匀传播与偏态模型更一致。偏度从强烈的负面到强烈的积极揭示了一个不受赞赏的功能社区传播。热点和超级传播事件是区域疾病动态的众所周知的描述符，预计与正偏态分布有关。观察到正偏态行为;然而，在研究期间约8个月，负偏态指示冷点和超级隔离占主导地位。相比之下，死亡指标在整个期间的缩放，方差和偏度指标中表现出近乎恒定的行为，农村地区优先受影响，这一观察结果与英格兰和威尔士的区域年龄人口统计数据一致。区域位置相对于密度标度律是非常持久的头5-9天后，现有的数据集。这种持续性行为的决定因素可能在大流行病之前就存在，并且保持不变。
英文摘要：
We investigated daily COVID-19 cases and deaths in the 337 lower tier local authority regions in England and Wales to better understand how the disease propagated over a 15-month period. Population density scaling models revealed residual variance and skewness to be sensitive indicators of the dynamics of propagation. Lockdowns and schools reopening triggered increased variance indicative of outbreaks with local impact and country scale heterogeneity. University reopening and December holidays triggered reduced variance indicative of country scale homogenisation which reached a minimum in mid-January 2021. Homogeneous propagation was associated with better correspondence with normally distributed residuals while heterogeneous propagation was more consistent with skewed models. Skewness varied from strongly negative to strongly positive revealing an unappreciated feature of community propagation. Hot spots and super-spreading events are well understood descriptors of regional disease dynamics that would be expected to be associated with positively skewed distributions. Positively skewed behaviour was observed; however, negative skewness indicative of cold-spots and super-isolation dominated for approximately 8 months during the period of study. In contrast, death metrics showed near constant behaviour in scaling, variance, and skewness metrics over the full period with rural regions preferentially affected, an observation consistent with regional age demographics in England and Wales. Regional positions relative to density scaling laws were remarkably persistent after the first 5-9 days of the available data set. The determinants of this persistent behaviour probably precede the pandemic and remain unchanged.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
