COVID-19疫苗接种延迟的影响：芝加哥和NYC数据的建模研究
The Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination Delay: A Modelling Study for Chicago and NYC Data
摘要：
背景资料：截至2020年12月初，部分新型冠状病毒疫苗已具备有效性及安全性，可用于大规模疫苗接种活动。因此，制定疫苗接种策略对于控制COVID 19大流行至关重要。研究方法：我们使用2020年3月1日至2020年11月28日期间芝加哥和纽约市的每日COVID-19报告来估计解释不同严重程度的SEIR类流行病学模型的参数。为了实现数据粘附预测，我们让模型参数依赖于时间。该模型用于预测不同的疫苗接种情景，其中活动在不同日期开始，从2020年10月1日到2021年4月1日。为了生成真实的场景，只要预测的每日住院人数达到预设阈值，就实施疾病控制策略。结果：模型重现了经验数据，具有显著的准确性。推迟接种疫苗会严重影响死亡率、住院率和恢复预测。在芝加哥，疾病传播得到控制，随着疫苗接种开始推迟，死亡率增加。在纽约市，案件数量正在增加，因此，尽管实施了争用措施，估计模型预测的影响要大得多。疫苗接种活动越早开始，其对减少COVID-19病例以及住院和死亡的潜在影响就越大。此外，病例、住院和死亡的增加率在很大程度上取决于每个城市的感染发生率。
英文摘要：
Background: By the beginning of December 2020, some vaccines against COVID-19 already presented efficacy and security, which qualify them to be used in mass vaccination campaigns. Thus, setting up strategies of vaccination became crucial to control the COVID19 pandemic. Methods: We use daily COVID-19 reports from Chicago and NYC from 01-Mar2020 to 28- Nov-2020 to estimate the parameters of an SEIR-like epidemiological model that accounts for different severity levels. To achieve data adherent predictions, we let the model parameters to be time-dependent. The model is used to forecast different vaccination scenarios, where the campaign starts at different dates, from 01-Oct-2020 to 01-Apr-2021. To generate realistic scenarios, disease control strategies are implemented whenever the number of predicted daily hospitalizations reaches a preset threshold. Results: The model reproduces the empirical data with remarkable accuracy. Delaying the vaccination severely affects the mortality, hospitalization, and recovery projections. In Chicago, the disease spread was under control, reducing the mortality increment as the start of the vaccination was postponed. In NYC, the number of cases was increasing, thus, the estimated model predicted a much larger impact, despite the implementation of contention measures. The earlier the vaccination campaign begins, the larger is its potential impact in reducing the COVID-19 cases, as well as in the hospitalizations and deaths. Moreover, the rate at which cases, hospitalizations and deaths increase with the delay in the vaccination beginning strongly depends on the shape of the incidence of infection in each city.
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