隔离和疫苗接种对流行病爆发的影响：一种统计力学方法
Effects of confinement and vaccination on an epidemic outburst: a statistical mechanics approach
摘要：
这项工作描述了一个简单的代理模型的流行病爆发的传播，特别强调流动性和地理因素，我们通过统计力学和数值模拟的特点。随着流动性的降低，渗流相变被发现分离的自由传播阶段，其中的爆发蔓延，而没有找到空间障碍和本地化的阶段，其中的爆发死了。有趣的是，受感染的病原体的数量在转变点受到最大波动的影响，这是建立在流行病爆发演变的不可预测性之上的。我们的模型也适用于测试疫苗接种时间表。事实上，有人建议，如果疫苗是可用的，但稀缺，这是方便的仔细选择疫苗接种计划，以最大限度地提高停止爆发的机会。我们讨论和评估了几个方案，特别感兴趣的是如何渗透转变点可以被转移，允许更高的流动性，而不受流行病学的影响。
英文摘要：
This work describes a simple agent model for the spread of an epidemic outburst, with special emphasis on mobility and geographical considerations, which we characterize via statistical mechanics and numerical simulations. As the mobility is decreased, a percolation phase transition is found separating a free-propagation phase in which the outburst spreads without finding spatial barriers and a localized phase in which the outburst dies off. Interestingly, the number of infected agents is subject to maximal fluctuations at the transition point, building upon the unpredictability of the evolution of an epidemic outburst. Our model also lends itself to testing vaccination schedules. Indeed, it has been suggested that if a vaccine is available but scarce it is convenient to carefully select the vaccination program to maximize the chances of halting the outburst. We discuss and evaluate several schemes, with special interest on how the percolation transition point can be shifted, allowing for higher mobility without epidemiological impact.
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