用道德和社会信仰的认知网络模型解释信仰变化
Using a Cognitive Network Model of Moral and Social Beliefs to Explain Belief Change
摘要：
尽管有科学证据证明儿童疫苗和转基因食品的安全性，但人们对它们的怀疑越来越多。对科学问题的信念很难改变，因为它们植根于许多相关的道德问题和对他人想法的信念中。我们提出了一个认知网络模型，估计所有相关的信念之间的关系，失调和随机性，以获得信念变化的情况下的预测。使用概率全国代表性的纵向研究，我们发现支持我们的模型的预测：随机性的信念网络随着时间的推移而下降，对于许多参与者，他们估计的不和谐与他们自我报告的不和谐呈正相关，和个人谁有高估计的不和谐他们的信念网络更有可能改变他们的信念，以减少这种不和谐。这项研究是第一个将统一的预测模型与实验干预相结合的研究，并揭示了导致信念改变的不和谐减少的动态。
英文摘要：
Scepticism towards childhood vaccines and genetically modified food has grown despite scientific evidence of their safety. Beliefs about scientific issues are difficult to change because they are entrenched within many related moral concerns and beliefs about what others think. We propose a cognitive network model which estimates the relationships, dissonance, and randomness between all related beliefs to derive predictions of the circumstances under which beliefs change. Using a probabilistic nationally representative longitudinal study, we found support for our model's predictions: Randomness of the belief networks decreased over time, for many participants their estimated dissonance related positively to their self-reported dissonance, and individuals who had high estimated dissonance of their belief network were more likely to change their beliefs to reduce this dissonance. This study is the first to combine a unifying predictive model with an experimental intervention and sheds light on dynamics of dissonance reduction leading to belief change.
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