Online prediction for streaming time series data has practical use for many real-world applications where downstream decisions depend on accurate forecasts for the future. Deployment in dynamic environments requires models to adapt quickly to changing data distributions without overfitting. We propose POLA (Predicting Online by Learning rate Adaptation) to automatically regulate the learning rate of recurrent neural network models to adapt to changing time series patterns across time. POLA meta-learns the learning rate of the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm by assimilating the prequential or interleaved-test-then-train evaluation scheme for online prediction. We evaluate POLA on two real-world datasets across three commonly-used recurrent neural network models. POLA demonstrates overall comparable or better predictive performance over other online prediction methods.
Cornell University（康奈尔大学）；University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）
We propose a general framework for studying adaptive regret bounds in the online learning framework, including model selection bounds and data-dependent bounds. Given a data- or model-dependent bound we ask, "Does there exist some algorithm achieving this bound?" We show that modifications to recently introduced sequential complexity measures can be used to answer this question by providing sufficient conditions under which adaptive rates can be achieved. In particular each adaptive rate induces a set of so-called offset complexity measures, and obtaining small upper bounds on these quantities…
Poznan University of Technology（波兹南理工大学）；Google Inc.（谷歌公司）；UC Santa Cruz（加州大学圣克鲁兹分校）
We consider online learning with linear models, where the algorithm predicts on sequentially revealed instances (feature vectors), and is compared against the best linear function (comparator) in hindsight. Popular algorithms in this framework, such as Online Gradient Descent (OGD), have parameters (learning rates), which ideally should be tuned based on the scales of the features and the optimal comparator, but these quantities only become available at the end of the learning process. In this paper, we resolve the tuning problem by proposing online algorithms making predictions which are inva…
University of California, Santa Barbara（加州大学圣巴巴拉分校）；Amazon Research（亚马逊研究院）
We consider the framework of non-stationary Online Convex Optimization where a learner seeks to control its dynamic regret against an arbitrary sequence of comparators. When the loss functions are strongly convex or exp-concave, we demonstrate that Strongly Adaptive (SA) algorithms can be viewed as a principled way of controlling dynamic regret in terms of path variation $V_T$ of the comparator sequence. Specifically, we show that SA algorithms enjoy $\tilde O(\sqrt{TV_T} \vee \log T)$ and $\tilde O(\sqrt{dTV_T} \vee d\log T)$ dynamic regret for strongly convex and exp-concave losses respectiv…
We study online boosting, the task of converting any weak online learner into a strong online learner. Based on a novel and natural definition of weak online learnability, we develop two online boosting algorithms. The first algorithm is an online version of boost-by-majority. By proving a matching lower bound, we show that this algorithm is essentially optimal in terms of the number of weak learners and the sample complexity needed to achieve a specified accuracy. This optimal algorithm is not adaptive however. Using tools from online loss minimization, we derive an adaptive online boosting a…
Sparsity and low-rank models have been popular for reconstructing images and videos from limited or corrupted measurements. Dictionary or transform learning methods are useful in applications such as denoising, inpainting, and medical image reconstruction. This paper proposes a framework for online (or time-sequential) adaptive reconstruction of dynamic image sequences from linear (typically undersampled) measurements. We model the spatiotemporal patches of the underlying dynamic image sequence as sparse in a dictionary, and we simultaneously estimate the dictionary and the images sequentially…
National Key Laboratory for Novel Software Technology（新型软件技术国家重点实验室）；Nanjing University（南京大学）
In this paper, we study online convex optimization in dynamic environments, and aim to bound the dynamic regret with respect to any sequence of comparators. Existing work have shown that online gradient descent enjoys an $O(\sqrt{T}(1+P_T))$ dynamic regret, where $T$ is the number of iterations and $P_T$ is the path-length of the comparator sequence. However, this result is unsatisfactory, as there exists a large gap from the $Ω(\sqrt{T(1+P_T)})$ lower bound established in our paper. To address this limitation, we develop a novel online method, namely adaptive learning for dynamic environment …
Online convex optimization is a sequential prediction framework with the goal to track and adapt to the environment through evaluating proper convex loss functions. We study efficient particle filtering methods from the perspective of such a framework. We formulate an efficient particle filtering methods for the non-stationary environment by making connections with the online mirror descent algorithm which is known to be a universal online convex optimization algorithm. As a result of this connection, our proposed particle filtering algorithm proves to achieve optimal particle efficiency.
We present an approach towards convex optimization that relies on a novel scheme which converts online adaptive algorithms into offline methods. In the offline optimization setting, our derived methods are shown to obtain favourable adaptive guarantees which depend on the harmonic sum of the queried gradients. We further show that our methods implicitly adapt to the objective's structure: in the smooth case fast convergence rates are ensured without any prior knowledge of the smoothness parameter, while still maintaining guarantees in the non-smooth setting. Our approach has a natural extensio…
Use of nonlinear feature maps via kernel approximation has led to success in many online learning tasks. As a popular kernel approximation method, Nyström approximation, has been well investigated, and various landmark points selection methods have been proposed to improve the approximation quality. However, these improved Nyström methods cannot be directly applied to the online learning setting as they need to access the entire dataset to learn the landmark points, while we need to update model on-the-fly in the online setting. To address this challenge, we propose Adaptive Nyström approximat…
We present a novel method for convex unconstrained optimization that, without any modifications, ensures: (i) accelerated convergence rate for smooth objectives, (ii) standard convergence rate in the general (non-smooth) setting, and (iii) standard convergence rate in the stochastic optimization setting. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first method that simultaneously applies to all of the above settings. At the heart of our method is an adaptive learning rate rule that employs importance weights, in the spirit of adaptive online learning algorithms (Duchi et al., 2011; Levy, 2017), …
Amirkabir University of Technology（阿米尔卡比尔理工大学）；University of Florida（佛罗里达大学）
Adaptive gradient-based optimization methods such as \textsc{Adagrad}, \textsc{Rmsprop}, and \textsc{Adam} are widely used in solving large-scale machine learning problems including deep learning. A number of schemes have been proposed in the literature aiming at parallelizing them, based on communications of peripheral nodes with a central node, but incur high communications cost. To address this issue, we develop a novel consensus-based distributed adaptive moment estimation method (\textsc{Dadam}) for online optimization over a decentralized network that enables data parallelization, as wel…
The University of Chicago（芝加哥大学）；Singapore Management University（新加坡管理大学）；Institute for Infocomm Research, A*STAR（新加坡科技研究局资讯通信研究院）；Nanyang Technological University（南洋理工大学）
Learning for maximizing AUC performance is an important research problem in Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence. Unlike traditional batch learning methods for maximizing AUC which often suffer from poor scalability, recent years have witnessed some emerging studies that attempt to maximize AUC by single-pass online learning approaches. Despite their encouraging results reported, the existing online AUC maximization algorithms often adopt simple online gradient descent approaches that fail to exploit the geometrical knowledge of the data observed during the online learning process, and…
Practical online learning tasks are often naturally defined on unconstrained domains, where optimal algorithms for general convex losses are characterized by the notion of comparator adaptivity. In this paper, we design such algorithms in the presence of switching cost - the latter penalizes the typical optimism in adaptive algorithms, leading to a delicate design trade-off. Based on a novel dual space scaling strategy discovered by a continuous-time analysis, we propose a simple algorithm that improves the existing comparator adaptive regret bound [ZCP22a] to the optimal rate. The obtained be…
Tel Aviv University（特拉维夫大学）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）
We consider the problem of controlling an unknown linear dynamical system under adversarially changing convex costs and full feedback of both the state and cost function. We present the first computationally-efficient algorithm that attains an optimal $\smash{\sqrt{T}}$-regret rate compared to the best stabilizing linear controller in hindsight, while avoiding stringent assumptions on the costs such as strong convexity. Our approach is based on a careful design of non-convex lower confidence bounds for the online costs, and uses a novel technique for computationally-efficient regret minimizati…
We present an adaptive online gradient descent algorithm to solve online convex optimization problems with long-term constraints , which are constraints that need to be satisfied when accumulated over a finite number of rounds T , but can be violated in intermediate rounds. For some user-defined trade-off parameter $β$ $\in$ (0, 1), the proposed algorithm achieves cumulative regret bounds of O(T^max{$β$,1--$β$}) and O(T^(1--$β$/2)) for the loss and the constraint violations respectively. Our results hold for convex losses and can handle arbitrary convex constraints without requiring knowledge …
Cornell University（康奈尔大学）；University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）
We develop a novel family of algorithms for the online learning setting with regret against any data sequence bounded by the empirical Rademacher complexity of that sequence. To develop a general theory of when this type of adaptive regret bound is achievable we establish a connection to the theory of decoupling inequalities for martingales in Banach spaces. When the hypothesis class is a set of linear functions bounded in some norm, such a regret bound is achievable if and only if the norm satisfies certain decoupling inequalities for martingales. Donald Burkholder's celebrated geometric char…
We consider the problem of tracking an adversarial state sequence in a linear dynamical system subject to adversarial disturbances and loss functions, generalizing earlier settings in the literature. To this end, we develop three techniques, each of independent interest. First, we propose a comparator-adaptive algorithm for online linear optimization with movement cost. Without tuning, it nearly matches the performance of the optimally tuned gradient descent in hindsight. Next, considering a related problem called online learning with memory, we construct a novel strongly adaptive algorithm th…
Sharif University of Technology（谢里夫理工大学）；Amirkabir University of Technology（阿米尔卡比尔理工大学）
As application demands for online convex optimization accelerate, the need for designing new methods that simultaneously cover a large class of convex functions and impose the lowest possible regret is highly rising. Known online optimization methods usually perform well only in specific settings, and their performance depends highly on the geometry of the decision space and cost functions. However, in practice, lack of such geometric information leads to confusion in using the appropriate algorithm. To address this issue, some adaptive methods have been proposed that focus on adaptively learn…
We introduce a new online convex optimization algorithm that adaptively chooses its regularization function based on the loss functions observed so far. This is in contrast to previous algorithms that use a fixed regularization function such as L2-squared, and modify it only via a single time-dependent parameter. Our algorithm's regret bounds are worst-case optimal, and for certain realistic classes of loss functions they are much better than existing bounds. These bounds are problem-dependent, which means they can exploit the structure of the actual problem instance. Critically, however, our …
Google Research（谷歌研究院）；Amazon（亚马逊）；University of Chicago（芝加哥大学）；Yahoo Research（雅虎研究院）
Online sparse linear regression is an online problem where an algorithm repeatedly chooses a subset of coordinates to observe in an adversarially chosen feature vector, makes a real-valued prediction, receives the true label, and incurs the squared loss. The goal is to design an online learning algorithm with sublinear regret to the best sparse linear predictor in hindsight. Without any assumptions, this problem is known to be computationally intractable. In this paper, we make the assumption that data matrix satisfies restricted isometry property, and show that this assumption leads to comput…
We present tools for the analysis of Follow-The-Regularized-Leader (FTRL), Dual Averaging, and Mirror Descent algorithms when the regularizer (equivalently, prox-function or learning rate schedule) is chosen adaptively based on the data. Adaptivity can be used to prove regret bounds that hold on every round, and also allows for data-dependent regret bounds as in AdaGrad-style algorithms (e.g., Online Gradient Descent with adaptive per-coordinate learning rates). We present results from a large number of prior works in a unified manner, using a modular and tight analysis that isolates the key a…
We consider the problem of online linear regression on individual sequences. The goal in this paper is for the forecaster to output sequential predictions which are, after $T$ time rounds, almost as good as the ones output by the best linear predictor in a given $\ell^1$-ball in $\\R^d$. We consider both the cases where the dimension~$d$ is small and large relative to the time horizon $T$. We first present regret bounds with optimal dependencies on $d$, $T$, and on the sizes $U$, $X$ and $Y$ of the $\ell^1$-ball, the input data and the observations. The minimax regret is shown to exhibit a reg…
In the past few years, Online Convex Optimization (OCO) has received notable attention in the control literature thanks to its flexible real-time nature and powerful performance guarantees. In this paper, we propose new step-size rules and OCO algorithms that simultaneously exploit gradient predictions, function predictions and dynamics, features particularly pertinent to control applications. The proposed algorithms enjoy static and dynamic regret bounds in terms of the dynamics of the reference action sequence, gradient prediction error, and function prediction error, which are generalizatio…
United Imaging Intelligence（联影智能）；University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）；University of Oregon（俄勒冈大学）
Motion estimation of cardiac MRI videos is crucial for the evaluation of human heart anatomy and function. Recent researches show promising results with deep learning-based methods. In clinical deployment, however, they suffer dramatic performance drops due to mismatched distributions between training and testing datasets, commonly encountered in the clinical environment. On the other hand, it is arguably impossible to collect all representative datasets and to train a universal tracker before deployment. In this context, we proposed a novel fast online adaptive learning (FOAL) framework: an o…
Technion - Israel Institute of Technology（以色列理工学院）
We present new efficient \textit{projection-free} algorithms for online convex optimization (OCO), where by projection-free we refer to algorithms that avoid computing orthogonal projections onto the feasible set, and instead relay on different and potentially much more efficient oracles. While most state-of-the-art projection-free algorithms are based on the \textit{follow-the-leader} framework, our algorithms are fundamentally different and are based on the \textit{online gradient descent} algorithm with a novel and efficient approach to computing so-called \textit{infeasible projections}. A…
We propose algorithms for online principal component analysis (PCA) and variance minimization for adaptive settings. Previous literature has focused on upper bounding the static adversarial regret, whose comparator is the optimal fixed action in hindsight. However, static regret is not an appropriate metric when the underlying environment is changing. Instead, we adopt the adaptive regret metric from the previous literature and propose online adaptive algorithms for PCA and variance minimization, that have sub-linear adaptive regret guarantees. We demonstrate both theoretically and experimenta…
This paper describes a new parameter-free online learning algorithm for changing environments. In comparing against algorithms with the same time complexity as ours, we obtain a strongly adaptive regret bound that is a factor of at least $\sqrt{\log(T)}$ better, where $T$ is the time horizon. Empirical results show that our algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art methods in learning with expert advice and metric learning scenarios.
Toyota Technological Institute at Chicago（芝加哥丰田理工学院）；Microsoft Research（微软研究院）
Online learning algorithms are designed to learn even when their input is generated by an adversary. The widely-accepted formal definition of an online algorithm's ability to learn is the game-theoretic notion of regret. We argue that the standard definition of regret becomes inadequate if the adversary is allowed to adapt to the online algorithm's actions. We define the alternative notion of policy regret, which attempts to provide a more meaningful way to measure an online algorithm's performance against adaptive adversaries. Focusing on the online bandit setting, we show that no bandit algo…
Oxford-Man Institute（牛津-曼研究所）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）
Financial markets are complex environments that produce enormous amounts of noisy and non-stationary data. One fundamental problem is online portfolio selection, the goal of which is to exploit this data to sequentially select portfolios of assets to achieve positive investment outcomes while managing risks. Various algorithms have been proposed for solving this problem in fields such as finance, statistics and machine learning, among others. Most of the methods have parameters that are estimated from backtests for good performance. Since these algorithms operate on non-stationary data that re…
We describe a framework for deriving and analyzing online optimization algorithms that incorporate adaptive, data-dependent regularization, also termed preconditioning. Such algorithms have been proven useful in stochastic optimization by reshaping the gradients according to the geometry of the data. Our framework captures and unifies much of the existing literature on adaptive online methods, including the AdaGrad and Online Newton Step algorithms as well as their diagonal versions. As a result, we obtain new convergence proofs for these algorithms that are substantially simpler than previous…
South China University of Technology（华南理工大学）；Institute for Infocomm Research（资讯通信研究院）；Singapore Management University（新加坡管理大学）；Tencent AI Lab（腾讯人工智能实验室）
Cost-Sensitive Online Classification has drawn extensive attention in recent years, where the main approach is to directly online optimize two well-known cost-sensitive metrics: (i) weighted sum of sensitivity and specificity; (ii) weighted misclassification cost. However, previous existing methods only considered first-order information of data stream. It is insufficient in practice, since many recent studies have proved that incorporating second-order information enhances the prediction performance of classification models. Thus, we propose a family of cost-sensitive online classification al…
Strongly adaptive algorithms are algorithms whose performance on every time interval is close to optimal. We present a reduction that can transform standard low-regret algorithms to strongly adaptive. As a consequence, we derive simple, yet efficient, strongly adaptive algorithms for a handful of problems.
We consider the problem of estimating a function from $n$ noisy samples whose discrete Total Variation (TV) is bounded by $C_n$. We reveal a deep connection to the seemingly disparate problem of Strongly Adaptive online learning (Daniely et al, 2015) and provide an $O(n \log n)$ time algorithm that attains the near minimax optimal rate of $\tilde O (n^{1/3}C_n^{2/3})$ under squared error loss. The resulting algorithm runs online and optimally adapts to the unknown smoothness parameter $C_n$. This leads to a new and more versatile alternative to wavelets-based methods for (1) adaptively estimat…
Princeton University（普林斯顿大学）；LinkedIn（领英）；Penn State University（宾夕法尼亚州立大学）
Online influence maximization aims to maximize the influence spread of a content in a social network with unknown network model by selecting a few seed nodes. Recent studies followed a non-adaptive setting, where the seed nodes are selected before the start of the diffusion process and network parameters are updated when the diffusion stops. We consider an adaptive version of content-dependent online influence maximization problem where the seed nodes are sequentially activated based on real-time feedback. In this paper, we formulate the problem as an infinite-horizon discounted MDP under a li…
In this work, we design a machine learning based method, online adaptive primal support vector regression (SVR), to model the implied volatility surface (IVS). The algorithm proposed is the first derivation and implementation of an online primal kernel SVR. It features enhancements that allow efficient online adaptive learning by embedding the idea of local fitness and budget maintenance to dynamically update support vectors upon pattern drifts. For algorithm acceleration, we implement its most computationally intensive parts in a Field Programmable Gate Arrays hardware, where a 132x speedup o…
We study the problem of uncertainty quantification via prediction sets, in an online setting where the data distribution may vary arbitrarily over time. Recent work develops online conformal prediction techniques that leverage regret minimization algorithms from the online learning literature to learn prediction sets with approximately valid coverage and small regret. However, standard regret minimization could be insufficient for handling changing environments, where performance guarantees may be desired not only over the full time horizon but also in all (sub-)intervals of time. We develop n…
University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）
We prove novel algorithmic guarantees for several online problems in the smoothed analysis model. In this model, at each time an adversary chooses an input distribution with density function bounded above by $\tfrac{1}σ$ times that of the uniform distribution; nature then samples an input from this distribution. Crucially, our results hold for {\em adaptive} adversaries that can choose an input distribution based on the decisions of the algorithm and the realizations of the inputs in the previous time steps. This paper presents a general technique for proving smoothed algorithmic guarantees ag…
Arizona State University（亚利桑那州立大学）；Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）
In point-based sensing systems such as coordinate measuring machines (CMM) and laser ultrasonics where complete sensing is impractical due to the high sensing time and cost, adaptive sensing through a systematic exploration is vital for online inspection and anomaly quantification. Most of the existing sequential sampling methodologies focus on reducing the overall fitting error for the entire sampling space. However, in many anomaly quantification applications, the main goal is to estimate sparse anomalous regions in the pixel-level accurately. In this paper, we develop a novel framework name…
We consider the framework of non-stationary stochastic optimization [Besbes et al, 2015] with squared error losses and noisy gradient feedback where the dynamic regret of an online learner against a time varying comparator sequence is studied. Motivated from the theory of non-parametric regression, we introduce a new variational constraint that enforces the comparator sequence to belong to a discrete $k^{th}$ order Total Variation ball of radius $C_n$. This variational constraint models comparators that have piece-wise polynomial structure which has many relevant practical applications [Tibshi…
Learning from data streams is among the most vital fields of contemporary data mining. The online analysis of information coming from those potentially unbounded data sources allows for designing reactive up-to-date models capable of adjusting themselves to continuous flows of data. While a plethora of shallow methods have been proposed for simpler low-dimensional streaming problems, almost none of them addressed the issue of learning from complex contextual data, such as images or texts. The former is represented mainly by adaptive decision trees that have been proven to be very efficient in …
Fraunhofer Heinrich Hertz Institute（弗劳恩霍夫海因里希·赫兹研究所）；Bell Labs, Alcatel-Lucent（阿尔卡特-朗讯贝尔实验室）；Keio University（庆应义塾大学）
In this paper, we address the problem of reconstructing coverage maps from path-loss measurements in cellular networks. We propose and evaluate two kernel-based adaptive online algorithms as an alternative to typical offline methods. The proposed algorithms are application-tailored extensions of powerful iterative methods such as the adaptive projected subgradient method and a state-of-the-art adaptive multikernel method. Assuming that the moving trajectories of users are available, it is shown how side information can be incorporated in the algorithms to improve their convergence performance …
Aalto University（阿尔托大学）；Technical University Darmstadt（达姆施塔特工业大学）
Offline reinforcement learning, by learning from a fixed dataset, makes it possible to learn agent behaviors without interacting with the environment. However, depending on the quality of the offline dataset, such pre-trained agents may have limited performance and would further need to be fine-tuned online by interacting with the environment. During online fine-tuning, the performance of the pre-trained agent may collapse quickly due to the sudden distribution shift from offline to online data. While constraints enforced by offline RL methods such as a behaviour cloning loss prevent this to a…
Netflix（奈飞）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；NYU Stern School of Business（纽约大学斯特恩商学院）
During online decision making in Multi-Armed Bandits (MAB), one needs to conduct inference on the true mean reward of each arm based on data collected so far at each step. However, since the arms are adaptively selected--thereby yielding non-iid data--conducting inference accurately is not straightforward. In particular, sample averaging, which is used in the family of UCB and Thompson sampling (TS) algorithms, does not provide a good choice as it suffers from bias and a lack of good statistical properties (e.g. asymptotic normality). Our thesis in this paper is that more sophisticated inferen…
Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) has been used successfully in settings where the learning task is assumed to be static. In many real-world scenarios, however, the data distribution will evolve over time, and it is yet to be shown whether AutoML techniques can effectively design online pipelines in dynamic environments. This study aims to automate pipeline design for online learning while continuously adapting to data drift. For this purpose, we design an adaptive Online Automated Machine Learning (OAML) system, searching the complete pipeline configuration space of online learners, includi…
Conventional reinforcement learning (RL) needs an environment to collect fresh data, which is impractical when online interactions are costly. Offline RL provides an alternative solution by directly learning from the previously collected dataset. However, it will yield unsatisfactory performance if the quality of the offline datasets is poor. In this paper, we consider an offline-to-online setting where the agent is first learned from the offline dataset and then trained online, and propose a framework called Adaptive Policy Learning for effectively taking advantage of offline and online data.…
Yangzhou University（扬州大学）；Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology（南京信息工程大学）
Existing online multi-label classification works cannot well handle the online label thresholding problem and lack the regret analysis for their online algorithms. This paper proposes a novel framework of adaptive label thresholding algorithms for online multi-label classification, with the aim to overcome the drawbacks of existing methods. The key feature of our framework is that both scoring and thresholding models are included as important components of the online multi-label classifier and are incorporated into one online optimization problem. Further, in order to establish the relationshi…
Online Food Ordering Service (OFOS) is a popular location-based service that helps people to order what you want. Compared with traditional e-commerce recommendation systems, users' interests may be diverse under different spatiotemporal contexts, leading to various spatiotemporal data distribution, which limits the fitting capacity of the model. However, numerous current works simply mix all samples to train a set of model parameters, which makes it difficult to capture the diversity in different spatiotemporal contexts. Therefore, we address this challenge by proposing a Bottom-up Adaptive S…
