We present the results of a search for additional exoplanets in all multiplanetary systems discovered to date, employing a logarithmic spacing between planets in our Solar System known as the Titius-Bode (TB) relation. We use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and separately analyse 229 multiplanetary systems that house at least three or more confirmed planets. We find that the planets in $\sim53\%$ of these systems adhere to a logarithmic spacing relation remarkably better than the Solar System planets. Using the TB relation, we predict the presence of 426 additional exoplanets in 229 multiplanetary systems, of which 197 candidates are discovered by interpolation and 229 by extrapolation. Altogether, 47 predicted planets are located within the habitable zone (HZ) of their host stars, and five of the 47 planets have a maximum mass limit of 0.1-2$M_{\oplus}$ and a maximum radius lower than 1.25$R_{\oplus}$. Our results and prediction of additional planets agree with previous studies' predictions; however, we improve the uncertainties in the orbital period measurement for the predicted planets significantly.
The orbits of the confirmed exoplanets from all multiple systems known to date are investigated. Observational data from 1890 objects, of which 1176 are found in multiplanetary systems, are compiled and analyzed. Mean motion resonances and near-resonances up to the outer/inner orbital period ratio's value of 5 and the denominator 4 are tested for all adjacent exoplanet orbits. Each host star's snow line is calculated using a simple algorithm. The planets are reclassified into categories as a function of the semimajor axis size relative to the snow line location and the semimajor axis vs mass d…
The nearby ultra-compact multiplanetary system YZ Ceti consists of at least three planets. The orbital period of each planet is the subject of discussion in the literature due to strong aliasing in the radial velocity data. The stellar activity of this M dwarf also hampers significantly the derivation of the planetary parameters. With an additional 229 radial velocity measurements obtained since the discovery publication, we reanalyze the YZ Ceti system and resolve the alias issues. We use model comparison in the framework of Bayesian statistics and periodogram simulations based on a method by…
Predictions of the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Exoplanet Survey. V. Detection Rates of Multiplanetary Systems in High Magnification Microlensing Events
We evaluate the extent to which newly detected exoplanetary systems containing at least four planets adhere to a generalized Titius-Bode (TB) relation. We find that the majority of exoplanet systems in our sample adhere to the TB relation to a greater extent than the Solar System does, particularly those detected by the Kepler mission. We use a generalized TB relation to make a list of predictions for the existence of 141 additional exoplanets in 68 multiple-exoplanet systems: 73 candidates from interpolation, 68 candidates from extrapolation. We predict the existence of a low-radius (R < 2.5 …
We analyze a sample of multiple-exoplanet systems which contain at least 3 transiting planets detected by the Kepler mission ("Kepler multiples"). We use a generalized Titius-Bode relation to predict the periods of 228 additional planets in 151 of these Kepler multiples. These Titius-Bode-based predictions suggest that there are, on average, ~2 planets in the habitable zone of each star. We estimate the inclination of the invariable plane for each system and prioritize our planet predictions by their geometric probability to transit. We highlight a short list of 77 predicted planets in 40 syst…
The current exoplanet database includes 5454 confirmed planets and candidate planets observed with the KEPLER mission. We find 932 planet pairs from which we extract distance and orbital period ratios. While earlier studies used the Titius-Bode law or a generalized version with logarithmic spacing, which both lack a physical model, we employ here the theory of harmonic orbit resonances, which contains quantized ratios instead, to explain the observed planet distance ratios and to predict undetected exoplanets. We find that the most prevailing harmonic ratios are (2:1), (3:2), and (5:3), in 73\…
Transiting planet discoveries have largely been restricted to the short-period or low-periastron distance regimes due to the bias inherent in the geometric transit probability. Through the refinement of planetary orbital parameters, and hence reducing the size of transit windows, long-period planets become feasible targets for photometric follow-up. Here we describe the TERMS project that is monitoring these host stars at predicted transit times.
Despite the discovery of thousands of exoplanets in recent years, the number of known exoplanets in star clusters remains tiny. This may be a consequence of close stellar encounters perturbing the dynamical evolution of planetary systems in these clusters. Here, we present the results from direct $N$-body simulations of multiplanetary systems embedded in star clusters containing $N = 8k, 16k, 32k$, and $64k$ stars. The planetary systems, which consist of the four Solar system giant planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune, are initialized in different orbital configurations, to study the e…
Launched on April 2018, NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) has been performing a wide-field survey for exoplanets orbiting stars with a goal of producing a rich database for follow-on studies. Here we present estimates of the detected exoplanet orbital periods in the 2-minute cadence mode during the TESS mission. For a two-transit detection criterion, the expected mean value of the most frequently detected orbital period is 5.01 days with the most frequently detected range of 2.12 to 11.82 days in the region with observation of 27 days. Near the poles where the observational d…
Planets reflect and linearly polarize the radiation that they receive from their host stars. The emergent polarization is sensitive to aspects of the planet atmosphere such as the gas composition and the occurrence of condensates and their optical properties. Extracting this information will represent a major step in the characterization of exoplanets. The numerical simulations presented here show that the polarization of a spatially-unresolved exoplanet may be detected by cross-correlating high-dispersion linear polarization and intensity (brightness) spectra of the planet-star system. The Do…
A major motivation of spectroscopic observations of giant exoplanets is to unveil planet formation processes from atmospheric compositions. Several recent studies suggested that atmospheric nitrogen, like carbon and oxygen, can provide important constrains on planetary formation environments. Since nitrogen chemistry can be far from thermochemical equilibrium in warm atmospheres, we extensively investigate under what conditions, and with what assumptions, the observable NH3 abundances can diagnose an atmosphere's bulk nitrogen abundance. In the first paper of this series, we investigate atmosp…
Started approximately in the late 1980s, exoplanetology has up to now unveiled the main gross bulk characteristics of planets and planetary systems. In the future it will benefit from more and more large telescopes and advanced space missions. These instruments will dramatically improve their performance in terms of photometric precision, detection speed, multipixel imaging, high-resolution spectroscopy, allowing to go much deeper in the knowledge of planets. Here we outline some science questions which should go beyond these standard improvements and how to address them. Our prejudice is that…
We investigate the current sample of exoplanet spin-orbit measurements to determine whether a dominant planet migration channel can be identified, and at what confidence. We use the predictions of Kozai migration plus tidal friction (Fabrycky and Tremaine 2007) and planet-planet scattering (Nagasawa et al. 2008) as our misalignment models, and we allow for a fraction of intrinsically aligned systems, explainable by disk migration. Bayesian model comparison demonstrates that the current sample of 32 spin-orbit measurements strongly favors a two-mode migration scenario combining planet-planet sc…
Measurements and predictions of H2 pressure-broadening coefficients of CO2 absorption lines for exoplanet atmosphere studies
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, IPSL, Sorbonne Université, École Normale Supérieure, Université PSL, École polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, CNRS（动态气象实验室，IPSL，索邦大学，巴黎高等师范学院，巴黎文理研究大学，巴黎综合理工学院，巴黎理工学院，法国国家科学研究中心）；Université de Tunis, Laboratoire de Spectroscopie et Dynamique Moléculaire, École Nationale Supérieure d’Ingénieurs de Tunis（突尼斯大学，分子光谱与动力学实验室，突尼斯国立工程师学校）；Univ Paris Est Créteil and Université Paris Cité, CNRS, LISA（马恩河谷大学和巴黎西岱大学，法国国家科学研究中心，大气、海洋和陆地环境观测与研究实验室）
The presence of certain elements within a star, and by extension its planet, strongly impacts the formation and evolution of the planetary system. The positive correlation between a host star's iron-content and the presence of an orbiting giant exoplanet has been confirmed; however, the importance of other elements in predicting giant planet occurrence is less certain despite their central role in shaping internal planetary structure. We designed and applied a machine learning algorithm to the Hypatia Catalog (Hinkel et a. 2014) to analyze the stellar abundance patterns of known host stars to …
The Wide Field InfraRed Survey Telescope (WFIRST) is the next NASA astrophysics flagship mission, to follow the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). The WFIRST mission was chosen as the top-priority large space mission of the 2010 astronomy and astrophysics decadal survey in order to achieve three primary goals: to study dark energy via a wide-field imaging survey, to study exoplanets via a microlensing survey, and to enable a guest observer program. Here we assess the ability of the several WFIRST designs to achieve the goal of the microlensing survey to discover a large sample of cold, low-mas…
We analyze the CORALIE/HARPS sample of exoplanets (Mayor et al. 2011) found by the Doppler radial velocity method for signs of the predicted "desert" at 10-$100 M_\odot$ caused by runaway gas accretion at semimajor axes of $< 3\,$AU. We find that these data are not consistent with this prediction. This result is similar to the finding by the MOA gravitational microlensing survey that found no desert in the exoplanet distribution for exoplanets in slightly longer period orbits and somewhat lower host masses (Suzuki et al. 2018). Together, these results imply that the runaway accretion scenario …
The distribution of the orbits of close-in exoplanets shows evidence for on-going removal and destruction by tides. Tides raised on a planet's host star cause the planet's orbit to decay, even after the orbital eccentricity has dropped to zero. Comparison of the observed orbital distribution and predictions of tidal theory show good qualitative agreement, suggesting tidal destruction of close-in exoplanets is common. The process can explain the observed cut-off in small a-values, the clustering of orbital periods near three days, and the relative youth of transiting planets. Contrary to previo…
Rocky planets are common around other stars, but their atmospheric properties remain largely unconstrained. Thanks to a wealth of recent planet discoveries and upcoming advances in observing capability, we are poised to characterize the atmospheres of dozens of rocky exoplanets in this decade. Theoretical understanding of rocky exoplanet atmospheres has advanced considerably in the last few years, yielding testable predictions of their evolution, chemistry, dynamics and even possible biosignatures. Here we review key progress in this field to date and discuss future objectives. Our major concl…
The orbital solutions of published multi-planet systems are not necessarily dynamically stable on timescales comparable to the lifetime of the system as a whole. For this reason, dynamical tests of the architectures of proposed exoplanetary systems are a critical tool to probe the stability and feasibility of the candidate planetary systems, with the potential to point the way towards refined orbital parameters of those planets. Such studies can even help in the identification of additional companions in such systems. Here we examine the dynamical stability of three planetary systems, orbiting…
Predictions of Transiting Exoplanet Confirmations from Rubin LSST Surveys
School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University（亚利桑那州立大学地球与太空探索学院）；Penn State University（宾夕法尼亚州立大学）；Universidad Andres Bello（安德烈斯贝略大学）；Universidad Nacional Autonoma de México（墨西哥国立自治大学）；University of Belgrade（贝尔格莱德大学）
The Atacama Large Millimeter/submilimeter Array (ALMA) recently revealed a set of nearly concentric gaps in the protoplanetary disk surrounding the young star HL Tau. If these are carved by forming gas giants, this provides the first set of orbital initial conditions for planets as they emerge from their birth disks. Using N-body integrations, we have followed the evolution of the system for 5 Gyr to explore the possible outcomes. We find that HL Tau initial conditions scaled down to the size of typically observed exoplanet orbits naturally produce several populations in the observed exoplanet…
Exoplanets on eccentric orbits experience an incident stellar flux that can be markedly larger at periastron versus apoastron. This variation in instellation can lead to dramatic changes in atmospheric structure in regions of the atmosphere where the radiative and advective heating/cooling timescales are shorter than the orbital timescale. To explore this phenomenon, we develop a sophisticated one-dimensional (vertical) time-stepping atmospheric structure code, EGP+, capable of simulating the dynamic response of atmospheric thermal and chemical structure to time-dependent perturbations. Critic…
Exoplanet habitability is traditionally assessed by comparing a planet's semi-major axis to the location of its host star's "habitable zone," the shell around a star for which Earth-like planets can possess liquid surface water. The Kepler space telescope has discovered numerous planet candidates near the habitable zone, and many more are expected from missions such as K2, TESS and PLATO. These candidates often require significant follow-up observations for validation, so prioritizing planets for habitability from transit data has become an important aspect of the search for life in the univer…
This paper is to introduce an online tool for the prediction of exoplanet transit light curves. Small telescopes can readily capture exoplanet transits under good weather conditions when the combination of a bright star and a large transiting exoplanet results in a significant depth of transit. However, in reality there are many considerations that need to be made in order to obtain useful measurements. This paper and accompanying website layout a procedure based on time series differential photometry that has been successfully employed using 0.4m aperture telescopes to predict the expected pr…
The Transit Ephemeris Refinement and Monitoring Survey (TERMS) conducts radial velocity and photometric monitoring of known exoplanets in order to refine planetary orbits and predictions of possible transit times. This effort is primarily directed towards planets not known to transit, but a small sample of our targets consist of known transiting systems. Here we present precision photometry for 6 WASP planets acquired during their transit windows. We perform a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis for each planet and combine these data with previous measurements to redetermine the period an…
Many gaseous exoplanets in short-period orbits are on the verge or are in the process of Roche-lobe overflow (RLO). Moreover, orbital stability analysis shows tides can drive many hot Jupiters to spiral inevitably toward their host stars. Thus, the coupled processes of orbital evolution and RLO likely shape the observed distribution of close-in exoplanets and may even be responsible for producing some of the short-period rocky planets. However, the exact outcome for an overflowing planet depends on its internal response to mass loss, and the accompanying orbital evolution can act to enhance or…
Predicting the Yield of Small Transiting Exoplanets around Mid-M and Ultra-Cool Dwarfs in the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey
Recent studies have shown that atmospheric mass-loss powered by the cooling luminosity of a planet's core can explain the observed radius valley separating super-Earths and sub-Neptunes, even without photoevaporation. In this work, we investigate the dependence of this core-powered mass-loss mechanism on stellar mass ($M_\ast$), metallicity ($Z_\ast$) and age ($τ_\ast$). Without making any changes to the underlying planet population, we find that the core-powered mass-loss model yields a shift in the radius valley to larger planet sizes around more massive stars with a slope given by $\text{d …
Cross-correlation is a well-tested method for exoplanet characterization. A new, potentially powerful application is the measurement of atmospheric isotope ratios. In particular D/H can give unique insights into a planet's formation and evolution. Here we aim to study the detectability of isotopologues in the high-dispersion spectra of exoplanets, to identify the optimal wavelengths ranges, and to predict the required observational efforts with current and future ground-based instruments. High-dispersion (R=10$^5$) thermal emission (and sometimes reflection) spectra were simulated by self-cons…
Context. The CoRoT satellite searches for planets by applying the transit method, monitoring up to 12 000 stars in the galactic plane for 150 days in each observation run. This search is contaminated by a large fraction of false positives, caused by different binary configurations that might be confused with a transiting planet. Aims. We evaluate the rates and nature of false positives in the CoRoT exoplanets search and compare our results with semiempirical predictions. Methods. We consider the detected binary and planet candidates in the first three extended CoRoT runs, and classify the resu…
A large fraction of known terrestrial-size exoplanets located in the Habitable Zone of M-dwarfs are expected to be tidally-locked. Numerous efforts have been conducted to study the climate of such planets, using in particular 3-D Global Climate Models (GCM). One of the biggest challenges in simulating such an extreme environment is to properly represent the effects of sub-grid convection. Most GCMs use either a simplistic convective-adjustment parametrization or sophisticated (e.g., mass flux scheme) Earth-tuned parametrizations. One way to improve the representation of convection is to study …
Exoplanets Prediction in Multi-Planetary Systems and Determining the Correlation Between the Parameters of Planets and Host Stars Using Artificial Intelligence
The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will measure exoplanet transmission and eclipse spectroscopy at un-precedented precisions to better understand planet structure, dynamics, chemistry and formation. These are essential tools on the march towards biosignature searches on potentially habitable planets. We explore a range of exoplanet atmospheric conditions and forecast the expected results with JWST. We take realistic CHIMERA models that match existing Spitzer and HST results and simulate the spectra achievable with the JWST MIRI + NIRCam Guaranteed Time Observations (GTO) survey. We then ret…
Three Earth-sized exoplanets were recently discovered close to the habitable zone of the nearby ultracool dwarf star TRAPPIST-1. The nature of these planets has yet to be determined, since their masses remain unmeasured and no observational constraint is available for the planetary population surrounding ultracool dwarfs, of which the TRAPPIST-1 planets are the first transiting example. Theoretical predictions span the entire atmospheric range from depleted to extended hydrogen-dominated atmospheres. Here, we report a space-based measurement of the combined transmission spectrum of the two inn…
The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is expected to revolutionize the field of exoplanets. The broad wavelength coverage and the high sensitivity of its instruments will allow characterization of exoplanetary atmospheres with unprecedented precision. Following the Call for the Cycle 1 Early Release Science Program, the Transiting Exoplanet Community was awarded time to observe several targets, including WASP-43b. The atmosphere of this hot Jupiter has been intensively observed but still harbors some mysteries, especially concerning the day-night temperature gradient, the efficiency of the atm…
GJ 1132 b is a nearby Earth-sized exoplanet transiting an M dwarf, and is amongst the most highly characterizable small exoplanets currently known. In this paper we study the interaction of a magma ocean with a water-rich atmosphere on GJ 1132b and determine that it must have begun with more than 5 wt% initial water in order to still retain a water-based atmosphere. We also determine the amount of O2 that can build up in the atmosphere as a result of hydrogen dissociation and loss. We find that the magma ocean absorbs at most ~10% of the O2 produced, whereas more than 90% is lost to space thro…
We present high resolution transmission spectra of giant planet atmospheres from a coupled 3-D atmospheric dynamics and transmission spectrum model that includes Doppler shifts which arise from winds and planetary motion. We model jovian planets covering more than two orders of magnitude in incident flux, corresponding to planets with 0.9 to 55 day orbital periods around solar-type stars. The results of our 3-D dynamical models reveal certain aspects of high resolution transmission spectra that are not present in simple 1-D models. We find that the hottest planets experience strong substellar …
In the broadest sense, the primary goal of exoplanet demographic surveys is to determine the frequency and distribution of planets as a function of as many of the physical parameters that may influence planet formation and evolution as possible, over as broad of a range of these parameters as possible. Empirically-determined exoplanet demographics provide the ground truth that all planet formation and evolution theories must reproduce. By comparing these planet distributions to the predictions of planet formation theories, we can begin to both test and refine these theories. In this chapter, w…
DeepTTV: Deep Learning Prediction of Hidden Exoplanet From Transit Timing Variations
School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院地球与大气科学学院）；School of Mathematics, Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院数学学院）；Center for Relativistic Astrophysics, School of Physics, Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院物理学院相对论天体物理中心）；Machine Learning Center, Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院机器学习中心）
Despite the existence of co-orbital bodies in the solar system, and the prediction of the formation of co-orbital planets by planetary system formation models, no co-orbital exoplanets (also called trojans) have been detected thus far. Here we study the signature of co-orbital exoplanets in transit surveys when two planet candidates in the system orbit the star with similar periods. Such pair of candidates could be discarded as false positives because they are not Hill-stable. However, horseshoe or long libration period tadpole co-orbital configurations can explain such period similarity. This…
Lyman-$α$ transits have been detected from several nearby exoplanets and are one of our best insights into the atmospheric escape process. However, due to ISM absorption, we typically only observe the transit signature in the blue-wing, making them challenging to interpret. This challenge has been recently highlighted by non-detections from planets thought to be undergoing vigorous escape. Pioneering 3D simulations have shown that escaping hydrogen is shaped into a cometary tail receding from the planet. Motivated by this work, we develop a simple model to interpret Lyman-$α$ transits. Using t…
Using a 3D GCM, we create dynamical model atmospheres of a representative transiting giant exoplanet, HD 209458b. We post-process these atmospheres with an opacity code to obtain transit radius spectra during the primary transit. Using a spectral atmosphere code, we integrate over the face of the planet seen by an observer at various orbital phases and calculate light curves as a function of wavelength and for different photometric bands. The products of this study are generic predictions for the phase variations of a zero-eccentricity giant planet's transit spectrum and of its light curves. W…
This paper continues a series in which we predict the main observable characteristics of exoplanets based on their formation. In Paper I we described our global planet formation and evolution model. In Paper II we studied the planetary mass-radius relationship. Here we present an extensive study of the statistics of planetary luminosities during both formation and evolution. Our results can be compared with individual directly imaged (proto)planets as well as statistical results from surveys. We calculated three synthetic planet populations assuming different efficiencies of the accretional he…
We present a study of the M dwarf exoplanetary systems forthcoming from NASA's TESS mission. While the mission's footprint is too complex to be characterized by a single detection completeness, we extract an ensemble completeness function that recovers the M dwarf planet detections from previous work. We employ this completeness function, together with a dual-population planet occurrence model that includes compact multiple planetary systems, to infer anew the planet yield. We predict both the number of M dwarf planets likely from TESS and their system architectures. We report four main findin…
The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) has discovered $\sim$5000 planets and planet candidates after three and a half years of observations. With a planned second Extended Mission spanning Years 5 - 7 on the horizon, now is the time to revise predictions of the TESS exoplanet yield. We present simulations of the number of detectable planets around 9.4 million AFGKM stars in the TESS Input Catalog Candidate Target List v8.01 through seven years of the TESS mission. Our simulations take advantage of improved models for the photometric performance and temporal window functions. The dete…
Deep learning algorithms are growing in popularity in the field of exoplanetary science due to their ability to model highly non-linear relations and solve interesting problems in a data-driven manner. Several works have attempted to perform fast retrievals of atmospheric parameters with the use of machine learning algorithms like deep neural networks (DNNs). Yet, despite their high predictive power, DNNs are also infamous for being 'black boxes'. It is their apparent lack of explainability that makes the astrophysics community reluctant to adopt them. What are their predictions based on? How …
Accelerating exoplanet climate modelling: A machine learning approach to complement 3D GCM grid simulations
Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences（空间研究所，奥地利科学院）；Institute for Theoretical Physics and Computational Physics, Graz University of Technology（理论物理与计算物理研究所，格拉茨技术大学）；Institute of Physics, University of Graz（物理研究所，格拉茨大学）
