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arXiv 2102.07298cs.LGcs.AI
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事件序列后缀和剩余时间预测的深度对抗模型

A Deep Adversarial Model for Suffix and Remaining Time Prediction of Event Sequences

The University of Melbourne(墨尔本大学)

Farbod Taymouri, Marcello La Rosa, Sarah M. Erfani

摘要:

事件后缀和剩余时间预测是顺序到顺序的学习任务。它们在经济、数字健康、业务流程管理和IT基础设施监控等不同领域有着广泛的应用。带时间戳的事件序列包含至少带有两个属性的有序事件:事件的标签和时间戳。后缀和剩余时间预测分别是关于获得事件标签的最有可能的延续和序列完成之前的剩余时间。最近用于这种预测的基于深度学习的工作由于闭环训练(即,下一事件以先前事件的基本事实为条件)和开环推理(即,下一事件以先前预测的事件为条件)。在这项工作中,我们提出了一个编码器-解码器架构,用于开环训练,以提高事件序列的后缀和剩余时间预测。为了捕捉事件的联合时间动态,我们利用对抗学习技术的力量来提高预测性能。我们在实验中考虑了四个现实生活中的数据集和三个基线。结果表明,与最先进的后缀和事件序列的剩余时间预测相比,改进了四倍,特别是在业务流程执行领域。我们还表明,在相同的实验设置下,对抗训练所获得的改进优于标准训练。

英文摘要:

Event suffix and remaining time prediction are sequence to sequence learning tasks. They have wide applications in different areas such as economics, digital health, business process management and IT infrastructure monitoring. Timestamped event sequences contain ordered events which carry at least two attributes: the event's label and its timestamp. Suffix and remaining time prediction are about obtaining the most likely continuation of event labels and the remaining time until the sequence finishes, respectively. Recent deep learning-based works for such predictions are prone to potentially large prediction errors because of closed-loop training (i.e., the next event is conditioned on the ground truth of previous events) and open-loop inference (i.e., the next event is conditioned on previously predicted events). In this work, we propose an encoder-decoder architecture for open-loop training to advance the suffix and remaining time prediction of event sequences. To capture the joint temporal dynamics of events, we harness the power of adversarial learning techniques to boost prediction performance. We consider four real-life datasets and three baselines in our experiments. The results show improvements up to four times compared to the state of the art in suffix and remaining time prediction of event sequences, specifically in the realm of business process executions. We also show that the obtained improvements of adversarial training are superior compared to standard training under the same experimental setup.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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