In this paper, we consider the time-varying Bayesian optimization problem. The unknown function at each time is assumed to lie in an RKHS (reproducing kernel Hilbert space) with a bounded norm. We adopt the general variation budget model to capture the time-varying environment, and the variation is characterized by the change of the RKHS norm. We adapt the restart and sliding window mechanism to introduce two GP-UCB type algorithms: R-GP-UCB and SW-GP-UCB, respectively. We derive the first (frequentist) regret guarantee on the dynamic regret for both algorithms. Our results not only recover previous linear bandit results when a linear kernel is used, but complement the previous regret analysis of time-varying Gaussian process bandit under a Bayesian-type regularity assumption, i.e., each function is a sample from a Gaussian process.
The Australian National University（澳大利亚国立大学）；NICTA（澳大利亚国家信息与通信技术研究院）；Microsoft Research（微软研究院）
Mixability of a loss is known to characterise when constant regret bounds are achievable in games of prediction with expert advice through the use of Vovk's aggregating algorithm. We provide a new interpretation of mixability via convex analysis that highlights the role of the Kullback-Leibler divergence in its definition. This naturally generalises to what we call $Φ$-mixability where the Bregman divergence $D_Φ$ replaces the KL divergence. We prove that losses that are $Φ$-mixable also enjoy constant regret bounds via a generalised aggregating algorithm that is similar to mirror descent.
Bayesian optimization usually assumes that a Bayesian prior is given. However, the strong theoretical guarantees in Bayesian optimization are often regrettably compromised in practice because of unknown parameters in the prior. In this paper, we adopt a variant of empirical Bayes and show that, by estimating the Gaussian process prior from offline data sampled from the same prior and constructing unbiased estimators of the posterior, variants of both GP-UCB and probability of improvement achieve a near-zero regret bound, which decreases to a constant proportional to the observational noise as …
Curiosity is Knowledge: Self-Consistent Learning and No-Regret Optimization with Active Inference
Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA（航空与宇航系，麻省理工学院）；School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332, USA（工业与系统工程学院，佐治亚理工学院）
Common statistical practice has shown that the full power of Bayesian methods is not realized until hierarchical priors are used, as these allow for greater "robustness" and the ability to "share statistical strength." Yet it is an ongoing challenge to provide a learning-theoretically sound formalism of such notions that: offers practical guidance concerning when and how best to utilize hierarchical models; provides insights into what makes for a good hierarchical prior; and, when the form of the prior has been chosen, can guide the choice of hyperparameter settings. We present a set of analyt…
We consider sequential optimization of an unknown function in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. We propose a Gaussian process-based algorithm and establish its order-optimal regret performance (up to a poly-logarithmic factor). This is the first GP-based algorithm with an order-optimal regret guarantee. The proposed algorithm is rooted in the methodology of domain shrinking realized through a sequence of tree-based region pruning and refining to concentrate queries in increasingly smaller high-performing regions of the function domain. The search for high-performing regions is localized and …
ETH Zurich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）；University of Toronto（多伦多大学）
Bayesian optimization (BO) based on Gaussian process models is a powerful paradigm to optimize black-box functions that are expensive to evaluate. While several BO algorithms provably converge to the global optimum of the unknown function, they assume that the hyperparameters of the kernel are known in advance. This is not the case in practice and misspecification often causes these algorithms to converge to poor local optima. In this paper, we present the first BO algorithm that is provably no-regret and converges to the optimum without knowledge of the hyperparameters. During optimization we…
We consider multi-objective optimization (MOO) of an unknown vector-valued function in the non-parametric Bayesian optimization (BO) setting, with the aim being to learn points on the Pareto front of the objectives. Most existing BO algorithms do not model the fact that the multiple objectives, or equivalently, tasks can share similarities, and even the few that do lack rigorous, finite-time regret guarantees that capture explicitly inter-task structure. In this work, we address this problem by modelling inter-task dependencies using a multi-task kernel and develop two novel BO algorithms base…
UC Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；Google AI Princeton（谷歌人工智能普林斯顿）；Princeton University（普林斯顿大学）
We consider the problem of online control of systems with time-varying linear dynamics. This is a general formulation that is motivated by the use of local linearization in control of nonlinear dynamical systems. To state meaningful guarantees over changing environments, we introduce the metric of {\it adaptive regret} to the field of control. This metric, originally studied in online learning, measures performance in terms of regret against the best policy in hindsight on {\it any interval in time}, and thus captures the adaptation of the controller to changing dynamics. Our main contribution…
We analyze the minimax regret of the adversarial bandit convex optimization problem. Focusing on the one-dimensional case, we prove that the minimax regret is $\widetildeΘ(\sqrt{T})$ and partially resolve a decade-old open problem. Our analysis is non-constructive, as we do not present a concrete algorithm that attains this regret rate. Instead, we use minimax duality to reduce the problem to a Bayesian setting, where the convex loss functions are drawn from a worst-case distribution, and then we solve the Bayesian version of the problem with a variant of Thompson Sampling. Our analysis featur…
Bayesian Optimization of CVaR with Unknown Hyperparameters
LMU Munich（慕尼黑大学）；Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML)（慕尼黑机器学习中心）；German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI)（德国人工智能研究中心）；RPTU Kaiserslautern-Landau（凯撒斯劳滕-兰道工业大学）；Leibniz University Hannover（汉诺威莱布尼茨大学）；L3S Research Center（L3S研究中心）
We consider the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem with a prior distribution on the reward distributions. We are interested in studying prior-free and prior-dependent regret bounds, very much in the same spirit as the usual distribution-free and distribution-dependent bounds for the non-Bayesian stochastic bandit. Building on the techniques of Audibert and Bubeck [2009] and Russo and Roy [2013] we first show that Thompson Sampling attains an optimal prior-free bound in the sense that for any prior distribution its Bayesian regret is bounded from above by $14 \sqrt{n K}$. This result is unim…
We study the sequential general online regression, known also as the sequential probability assignments, under logarithmic loss when compared against a broad class of experts. We focus on obtaining tight, often matching, lower and upper bounds for the sequential minimax regret that are defined as the excess loss it incurs over a class of experts. After proving a general upper bound, we consider some specific classes of experts from Lipschitz class to bounded Hessian class and derive matching lower and upper bounds with provably optimal constants. Our bounds work for a wide range of values of t…
In this paper, we develop a novel virtual-queue-based online algorithm for online convex optimization (OCO) problems with long-term and time-varying constraints and conduct a performance analysis with respect to the dynamic regret and constraint violations. We design a new update rule of dual variables and a new way of incorporating time-varying constraint functions into the dual variables. To the best of our knowledge, our algorithm is the first parameter-free algorithm to simultaneously achieve sublinear dynamic regret and constraint violations. Our proposed algorithm also outperforms the st…
Princeton University（普林斯顿大学）；Google AI Princeton（谷歌AI普林斯顿）；UC Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；MIT（麻省理工学院）
We study online control of time-varying linear systems with unknown dynamics in the nonstochastic control model. At a high level, we demonstrate that this setting is \emph{qualitatively harder} than that of either unknown time-invariant or known time-varying dynamics, and complement our negative results with algorithmic upper bounds in regimes where sublinear regret is possible. More specifically, we study regret bounds with respect to common classes of policies: Disturbance Action (SLS), Disturbance Response (Youla), and linear feedback policies. While these three classes are essentially equi…
We prove a new minimax theorem connecting the worst-case Bayesian regret and minimax regret under partial monitoring with no assumptions on the space of signals or decisions of the adversary. We then generalise the information-theoretic tools of Russo and Van Roy (2016) for proving Bayesian regret bounds and combine them with the minimax theorem to derive minimax regret bounds for various partial monitoring settings. The highlight is a clean analysis of `non-degenerate easy' and `hard' finite partial monitoring, with new regret bounds that are independent of arbitrarily large game-dependent co…
Many real world applications can be framed as multi-objective optimization problems, where we wish to simultaneously optimize for multiple criteria. Bayesian optimization techniques for the multi-objective setting are pertinent when the evaluation of the functions in question are expensive. Traditional methods for multi-objective optimization, both Bayesian and otherwise, are aimed at recovering the Pareto front of these objectives. However, in certain cases a practitioner might desire to identify Pareto optimal points only in a subset of the Pareto front due to external considerations. In thi…
National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）
This paper presents a recursive reasoning formalism of Bayesian optimization (BO) to model the reasoning process in the interactions between boundedly rational, self-interested agents with unknown, complex, and costly-to-evaluate payoff functions in repeated games, which we call Recursive Reasoning-Based BO (R2-B2). Our R2-B2 algorithm is general in that it does not constrain the relationship among the payoff functions of different agents and can thus be applied to various types of games such as constant-sum, general-sum, and common-payoff games. We prove that by reasoning at level 2 or more a…
Recursive least-squares algorithms often use forgetting factors as a heuristic to adapt to non-stationary data streams. The first contribution of this paper rigorously characterizes the effect of forgetting factors for a class of online Newton algorithms. For exp-concave and strongly convex objectives, the algorithms achieve the dynamic regret of $\max\{O(\log T),O(\sqrt{TV})\}$, where $V$ is a bound on the path length of the comparison sequence. In particular, we show how classic recursive least-squares with a forgetting factor achieves this dynamic regret bound. By varying $V$, we obtain a t…
We present two algorithms for Bayesian optimization in the batch feedback setting, based on Gaussian process upper confidence bound and Thompson sampling approaches, along with frequentist regret guarantees and numerical results.
Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular method for black-box optimization, which relies on uncertainty as part of its decision-making process when deciding which experiment to perform next. However, not much work has addressed the effect of uncertainty on the performance of the BO algorithm and to what extent calibrated uncertainties improve the ability to find the global optimum. In this work, we provide an extensive study of the relationship between the BO performance (regret) and uncertainty calibration for popular surrogate models and compare them across both synthetic and real-world exper…
We develop a new theoretical framework, the \emph{envelope complexity}, to analyze the minimax regret with logarithmic loss functions and derive a Bayesian predictor that adaptively achieves the minimax regret over high-dimensional $\ell_1$-balls within a factor of two. The prior is newly derived for achieving the minimax regret and called the \emph{spike-and-tails~(ST) prior} as it looks like. The resulting regret bound is so simple that it is completely determined with the smoothness of the loss function and the radius of the balls except with logarithmic factors, and it has a generalized fo…
