With safety being one of the primary motivations for developing automated vehicles (AVs), extensive field and simulation tests are being carried out to ensure AVs can operate safely on roadways. Since 2014, the California DMV has been collecting AV collision and disengagement reports, which are valuable data sources for studying AV crash patterns. In this study, crash sequence data extracted from California AV collision reports were used to investigate patterns and how they may be used to develop AV test scenarios. Employing sequence analysis, this study evaluated 168 AV crashes (with AV in automatic driving mode before disengagement or collision) from 2015 to 2019. Analysis of subsequences showed that the most representative pattern in AV crashes was (collision following AV stop) type. Analysis of event transition showed that disengagement, as an event in 24 percent of all studied AV crash sequences, had a transition probability of 68 percent to an immediate collision. Cluster analysis characterized AV crash sequences into seven groups with distinctive crash dynamic features. Cross-tabulation analysis showed that sequence groups were significantly associated with variables measuring crash outcomes and describing environmental conditions. Crash sequences are useful for developing AV test scenarios. Based on the findings, a scenario-based AV safety testing framework was proposed with sequence of events embedded as a core component.
Automated vehicle technology promises to reduce the societal impact of traffic crashes. Early investigations of this technology suggest that significant safety issues remain during control transfers between the automation and human drivers and automation interactions with the transportation system. In order to address these issues, it is critical to understand both the behavior of human drivers during these events and the environments where they occur. This article analyzes automated vehicle crash narratives from the California Department of Motor Vehicles automated vehicle crash database to i…
This paper develops a test scenario specification procedure using crash sequence analysis and Bayesian network modeling. Intersection two-vehicle crash data was obtained from the 2016 to 2018 National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Crash Report Sampling System database. Vehicles involved in the crashes are specifically renumbered based on their initial positions and trajectories. Crash sequences are encoded to include detailed pre-crash events and concise collision events. Based on sequence patterns, the crashes are characterized as 55 types. A Bayesian network model is developed to dep…
Heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) are involved in 4.5% of police-reported road crashes in Europe and 14.2% of fatal road crashes. Active and passive safety systems can help to prevent crashes or mitigate the consequences but need detailed scenarios to be designed effectively. The aim of this paper is to give a comprehensive and up-to-date analysis of HGV crashes in Europe. The analysis is based on general statistics from CARE, results about trucks weighing 16 tons or more from national crash databases and a detailed study of in-depth crash data from GIDAS. Three scenarios are identified that should …
This paper explores gender differences in injury severity risk using a comprehensive crash dataset including the driver, vehicle, environment, and roadway characteristics. For the purpose of this study, only single vehicle crashes that occurred in the Commonwealth of Virginia, collected in a five year period from 2011 to 2015, were used. This study contributes to the literature of crash analysis by incorporating an extensive dataset with normalized attributes. The dataset used for model estimation integrated from two different data sources. These data sources include Virginia Traffic Records E…
With the emergence of high-frequency connected and automated vehicle data, analysts have become able to extract useful information from them. To this end, the concept of "driving volatility" is defined and explored as deviation from the norm. Several measures of dispersion and variation can be computed in different ways using vehicles' instantaneous speed, acceleration, and jerk observed at intersections. This study explores different measures of volatility, representing newly available surrogate measures of safety, by combining data from the Michigan Safety Pilot Deployment of connected vehic…
In this paper, we present a crash frequency data augmentation method based on Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks to improve crash frequency models. The proposed method is evaluated by comparing the performance of Base SPFs (developed using original data) and Augmented SPFs (developed using original data plus synthesised data) in terms of hotspot identification performance, model prediction accuracy, and dispersion parameter estimation accuracy. The experiments are conducted using simulated and real-world crash data sets. The results indicate that the synthesised crash data by CGAN hav…
To improve transportation safety, this study applies Highway Safety Manual (HSM) procedures to roadways while accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and exploring alternative functional forms for Safety Performance Functions (SPFs). Specifically, several functional forms are considered in Poisson and Poisson-gamma modeling frameworks. Using five years (2011-2015) of crash, traffic, and road inventory data for two-way, two-lane roads in Tennessee, fixed- and random-parameter count data models are calibrated. The models account for important methodological concerns of unobserved heterogeneity a…
Despite paying special attention to the motorcycle-involved crashes in the safety research, little is known about their pattern and impacts in developing countries. The widespread adoption of motorcycles in such regions in tandem with the vulnerability of motorcyclists exacerbates the likelihood of severe crashes. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the underlying factors contributing to the severity of motorcycle-involved crashes through employing crash data from March 2018 to March 2019 from Iran. Considering the ordinal nature of three injury classes of property-damage-only (…
With rapidly increasing of the land development density along suburban arterials, much more irregular signal spacing appeared on suburban arterials, and high access density is commonly observed on suburban arterials. These issues tend to increase the risk of crash occurrence of arterials. By developing safety performance functions on road segments and intersections separately, the previous research analyzed the partial safety effects of the influence factors. In this study, Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) models were developed at traffic analysis zone (TAZ) level for suburban arteria…
Real-time safety analysis has become a hot research topic as it can reveal the relationship between real-time traffic characteristics and crash occurrence more accurately, and these results could be applied to improve active traffic management systems and enhance safety performance. Most of the previous studies have been applied to freeways and seldom to arterials. Therefore, this study attempts to examine the relationship between crash occurrence and real-time traffic and weather characteristics based on four urban arterials in Central Florida. Considering the substantial difference between t…
Traditionally, evaluation of intersection safety has been largely reactive, based on historical crash frequency data. However, the emerging data from Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) can complement historical data and help in proactively identify intersections which have high levels of variability in instantaneous driving behaviors prior to the occurrence of crashes. Based on data from Safety Pilot Model Deployment in Ann Arbor, Michigan, this study developed a unique database that integrates intersection crash and inventory data with more than 65 million real-world Basic Safety Message…
From Lagging to Leading: Validating Hard Braking Events as High-Density Indicators of Segment Crash Risk
Google Research（谷歌研究院）；Stanford Graduate School of Business（斯坦福大学商学院）；HEC Montréal（蒙特利尔高等商学院）；Virginia Polytechnic Institute State University（弗吉尼亚理工大学）
Real-time safety analysis has become a hot research topic as it can more accurately reveal the relationships between real-time traffic characteristics and crash occurrence, and these results could be applied to improve active traffic management systems and enhance safety performance. Most of the previous studies have been applied to freeways and seldom to arterials. This study attempts to examine the relationship between crash occurrence and real-time traffic and weather characteristics based on four urban arterials in Central Florida. Considering the substantial difference between the interru…
Modelling crash rates in an urban area requires a swathe of data regarding historical and prevailing traffic volumes and crash events and characteristics. Provided that the traffic volume of urban networks is largely defined by typical work and school commute patterns, crash rates can be determined with a reasonable degree of accuracy. However, this process becomes more complicated for an area that is frequently subject to peaks and troughs in traffic volume and crash events owing to exogenous events (for example, extreme weather) rather than typical commute patterns. One such area that is par…
University of North Carolina at Greensboro（北卡罗来纳大学格林斯伯勒分校）
The variability of the clusters generated by clustering techniques in the domain of latitude and longitude variables of fatal crash data are significantly unpredictable. This unpredictability, caused by the randomness of fatal crash incidents, reduces the accuracy of crash frequency (i.e., counts of fatal crashes per cluster) which is used to measure traffic safety in practice. In this paper, a quantitative measure of traffic safety that is not significantly affected by the aforementioned variability is proposed. It introduces a fatal point -- a segment with the highest frequency of fatality -…
With the advent of seemingly unstructured big data, and through seamless integration of computation and physical components, cyber-physical systems (CPS) provide an innovative way to enhance safety and resiliency of transport infrastructure. This study focuses on real world microscopic driving behavior and its relevance to school zone safety expanding the capability, usability, and safety of dynamic physical systems through data analytics. Driving behavior and school zone safety is a public health concern. The sequence of instantaneous driving decisions and its variations prior to involvement …
University of Connecticut（康涅狄格大学）；University of Wisconsin-Madison（威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校）
Crash sequence analysis has been shown in prior studies to be useful for characterizing crashes and identifying safety countermeasures. Sequence analysis is highly domain-specific, but its various techniques have not been evaluated for adaptation to crash sequences. This paper evaluates the impact of encoding and dissimilarity measures on crash sequence analysis and clustering. Sequence data of interstate highway, single-vehicle crashes in the United States, from 2016-2018, were studied. Two encoding schemes and five optimal matching based dissimilarity measures were compared by evaluating the…
