动态条件下城市基础设施设计的安全系数法
A safety factor approach to designing urban infrastructure for dynamic conditions
摘要：
目前的方法来设计洪水敏感的基础设施通常假设一个固定的降雨分布，忽略了许多不确定性。这些假设与观测结果不一致，这些观测结果表明极端降水事件正在加剧，而且对自然-人类耦合系统的预测存在不确定性。在这里，我们展示了一个安全系数的方法来设计城市基础设施在不断变化的气候。我们的研究结果表明，假设气候平稳性和忽视深层的不确定性可能会大大低估洪水风险，并导致基础设施设计选择不佳。我们发现，气候的不确定性占主导地位的社会经济和工程的不确定性，影响雨水排水系统的水力可靠性。我们量化了实现更高的水力可靠性和鲁棒性所需的前期成本，以应对降雨量，地表径流特性和基础设施寿命预测的深度不确定性。根据不同的位置，我们发现，增加1.4至1.7的安全系数的标准雨水管设计指南产生强大的性能所考虑的深度不确定性。从这项研究中获得的见解强调了更新传统工程设计策略的必要性，以提高基础设施在社会经济和环境变化下的可靠性。
英文摘要：
Current approaches to design flood-sensitive infrastructure typically assume a stationary rainfall distribution and neglect many uncertainties. These assumptions are inconsistent with observations that suggest intensifying extreme precipitation events and the uncertainties surrounding projections of the coupled natural-human systems. Here we demonstrate a safety factor approach to designing urban infrastructure in a changing climate. Our results show that assuming climate stationarity and neglecting deep uncertainties can drastically underestimate flood risks and lead to poor infrastructure design choices. We find that climate uncertainty dominates the socioeconomic and engineering uncertainties that impact the hydraulic reliability in stormwater drainage systems. We quantify the upfront costs needed to achieve higher hydraulic reliability and robustness against the deep uncertainties surrounding projections of rainfall, surface runoff characteristics, and infrastructure lifetime. Depending on the location, we find that adding safety factors of 1.4 to 1.7 to the standard stormwater pipe design guidance produces robust performance to the considered deep uncertainties. The insights gained from this study highlight the need for updating traditional engineering design strategies to improve infrastructure reliability under socioeconomic and environmental changes.
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