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arXiv 2102.04335stat.AP
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美国两党政治和贫困是SARS-CoV-2病毒感染和死亡的风险因素

Bipartisan politics and poverty as a risk factor for contagion and mortality from SARS-CoV-2 virus in the United States of America

Cesar R. Salas-Guerra

摘要:

在美国,自2019冠状病毒病大流行开始至二零二零年十二月三十一日,录得341,199人死亡及超过19,663,976人感染。最近的文献证实,存在与贫困有关的健康问题的社区,如肥胖、心血管疾病、糖尿病和高血压,更容易因SARS-CoV-2感染而死亡。此外,该国政治领导人实施的有争议的公共卫生政策突出了少数群体的社会经济不平等。因此,通过使用机器学习技术和结构方程的多变量相关分析,我们衡量社会决定因素是否与COVID-19疾病的感染和死亡增加有关。PLS最小二乘回归分析允许通过预测值R2 = .916,\b{eta} = .836,p =. 000(t值= 66,137)显示,社会决定因素每增加一个单位,COVID-19疾病就会增加91.6%。用于相关分析的聚类指数生成了一个新的数据集,包括三个群体:C1共和党人,C2和C3民主党人,来自加利福尼亚州,纽约州,得克萨斯州和佛罗里达州。通过分析,可以确定贫困变量是与共和党各州的高感染率有关的主要风险因素,而在C3组各州,没有医疗保险的人口与高病毒感染率之间存在高度正相关关系。这些研究结果解释了贫困和缺乏经济保障使公共或私人卫生系统处于危险和灾难之中的论点。

英文摘要:

In the United States, from the start of the COVID-19 pandemic to December 31, 2020, 341,199 deaths and more than 19,663,976 infections were recorded. Recent literature establishes that communities with poverty-related health problems, such as obesity, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and hypertension, are more susceptible to mortality from SARS-CoV-2 infection. Additionally, controversial public health policies implemented by the nation's political leaders have highlighted the socioeconomic inequalities of minorities. Therefore, through multivariate correlational analysis using machine learning techniques and structural equations, we measure whether social determinants are associated with increased infection and death from COVID-19 disease. The PLS least squares regression analysis allowed identifying a significant impact between social determinants and COVID-19 disease through a predictive value of R2 = .916, \b{eta} = .836, p =. 000 (t-value = 66,137) shows that for each unit of increase in social determinants, COVID-19 disease increases by 91.6%. The clustering index used for correlational analysis generated a new data set comprising three groups: C1 Republicans, C2 and C3 Democrats from California, New York, Texas, and Florida. This analysis made it possible to identify the poverty variable as the main risk factor related to the high rates of infection in Republican states and a high positive correlation between the population not insured with a medical plan and high levels of virus contagion in the states of group C3. These findings explain the argument that poverty and lack of economic security put the public or private health system at risk and calamity.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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