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arXiv 2102.04004stat.APastro-ph.IM
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WOMBAT:一个完全贝叶斯全局通量反演框架

WOMBAT: A fully Bayesian global flux-inversion framework

Andrew Zammit-Mangion, Michael Bertolacci, Jenny Fisher, Ann Stavert, Matthew L. Rigby, Yi Cao, Noel Cressie

摘要:

WOMBAT(The WOllongong Methodology for Bayesian Assimilation of Trace-gases)是一个完全贝叶斯分层统计框架,用于从烧瓶、现场和遥感数据中反演痕量气体通量。WOMBAT通过考虑相关误差项、在线偏差校正能力以及对贝叶斯统计模型中出现的所有未知量提供不确定性量化,扩展了传统贝叶斯综合框架。我们表明,在一个观测系统模拟实验(OSSE),这些扩展是至关重要的,当数据确实是有偏见的,并有相关的错误。使用GEOS-Chem大气传输模型,我们表明WOMBAT能够从轨道碳观测站-2(OCO-2)数据中获得非化石燃料CO $_2$通量的后验均值和不确定性,这些数据与Crowell等人(2019,Atmos.化学物理学,第19卷)。我们还发现,我们的预测总柱碳观测网络的样本外检索,在大多数情况下,比MIP参与者所做的更准确。OCO-2数据集的后续版本将在可用时被纳入WOMBAT。

英文摘要:

WOMBAT (the WOllongong Methodology for Bayesian Assimilation of Trace-gases) is a fully Bayesian hierarchical statistical framework for flux inversion of trace gases from flask, in situ, and remotely sensed data. WOMBAT extends the conventional Bayesian-synthesis framework through the consideration of a correlated error term, the capacity for online bias correction, and the provision of uncertainty quantification on all unknowns that appear in the Bayesian statistical model. We show, in an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE), that these extensions are crucial when the data are indeed biased and have errors that are correlated. Using the GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport model, we show that WOMBAT is able to obtain posterior means and uncertainties on non-fossil-fuel CO$_2$ fluxes from Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) data that are comparable to those from the Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) reported in Crowell et al. (2019, Atmos. Chem. Phys., vol. 19). We also find that our predictions of out-of-sample retrievals from the Total Column Carbon Observing Network are, for the most part, more accurate than those made by the MIP participants. Subsequent versions of the OCO-2 datasets will be ingested into WOMBAT as they become available.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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