非国家武装团体全球支助网络的量化
Quantifying the Global Support Network for Non-State Armed Groups (NAGs)
摘要：
人类历史是由武装冲突塑造的。与大规模的国家间战争相比，低强度的袭击在二战后更为普遍。这些袭击通常由非国家武装团体（NAG）实施，这些团体得到东道国（HS）的支持。我们分析了NAG-HS支持的全球双边网络及其在1945-2010年期间的演变。我们发现了与生态网络惊人的相似之处，如互惠和寄生形式的支持，以及嵌套和模块化的网络架构。嵌套性来自偏好行为：高度连接的参与者更有可能获得和失去连接。确定了长期存在的主要模块，反映了区域和跨区域的利益，与过渡性模块相反，这些模块的成员有很大的更替。揭示这一架构进一步使行为者的角色的识别，并提供有效的干预战略的见解。
英文摘要：
Human history has been shaped by armed conflicts. Rather than large-scale interstate wars, low-intensity attacks have been more prevalent in the post-World War era. These attacks are often carried out by non-state armed groups (NAGs), which are supported by host states (HSs). We analyze the global bipartite network of NAG-HS support and its evolution over the period of 1945-2010. We find striking parallels to ecological networks such as mutualistic and parasitic forms of support, and a nested and modular network architecture. The nestedness emerges from preferential behaviors: highly connected players are more likely to both gain and lose connections. Long-persisting major modules are identified, reflecting both regional and trans-regional interests, which show significant turnover in their membership, contrary to the transitory ones. Revealing this architecture further enables the identification of actor's roles and provide insights for effective intervention strategies.
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