保守更新

摘要：

本文从行为学的角度对信念保守主义进行了分析。我引入了一个新的公理，动态保守主义，当信息和先验信念发生冲突时，它放松了动态一致性。当主体是一个主观的期望效用最大化者时，动态保守主义意味着条件信念是先验和贝叶斯后验的凸组合。保守主义可能导致与确认偏差、代表性和好消息-坏消息效应一致的信念动态，这表明这些偏差之间存在更深层次的行为联系。一个指数的保守主义和比较保守主义的概念的特点。最后，我将保守性扩展到具有不完全偏好且承认多重先验表示的代理人的情况。

英文摘要：

This paper provides a behavioral analysis of conservatism in beliefs. I introduce a new axiom, Dynamic Conservatism, that relaxes Dynamic Consistency when information and prior beliefs "conflict." When the agent is a subjective expected utility maximizer, Dynamic Conservatism implies that conditional beliefs are a convex combination of the prior and the Bayesian posterior. Conservatism may result in belief dynamics consistent with confirmation bias, representativeness, and the good news-bad news effect, suggesting a deeper behavioral connection between these biases. An index of conservatism and a notion of comparative conservatism are characterized. Finally, I extend conservatism to the case of an agent with incomplete preferences that admit a multiple priors representation.

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