The past and future obliquity of Saturn as Titan migrates
英文摘要：
Aims: It has recently been shown that the fast migration of Titan could be responsible for the current 26.7°-tilt of Saturn's spin axis. We aim to quantify the level of generality of this result and to measure the most likely sets of parameters. We also aim to determine the obliquity that Saturn will reach in the future. Methods: We explore a broad range of parameters and propagate numerically the orientation of Saturn's spin axis both backward and forward in time. Results: In the adiabatic regime, the likelihood of reproducing Saturn's current spin-axis orientation is maximised for primordial obliquities between about 2° and 7°. For a slightly faster migration than expected from radio-science experiments, non-adiabatic effects even allow for exactly null primordial obliquities. Starting from such small tilts, Saturn's spin axis can evolve up to its current state provided that: i) the semi-major axis of Titan changed by more than 5% of its current value, and ii) its migration rate does not exceed 10 times the nominal measured rate. In comparison, observational data suggest that the increase of Titan's semi-major axis exceeded 50% over 4 Gyrs, and error bars imply that the current migration rate is unlikely to be larger than 1.5 times its nominal value. Conclusions: If Titan did migrate substantially before today, tilting Saturn from a small obliquity is not only possible, but it is the most likely scenario. Saturn's obliquity is expected to be still increasing today and could exceed 65° in the future. Maximising the likelihood would also put strict constraints on Saturn's polar moment of inertia. However, the possibility remains that Saturn's primordial obliquity was already large, for instance as a result of a massive collision. The unambiguous distinction between these two scenarios would be given by a precise measure of Saturn's polar moment of inertia.
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