储蓄率与经济增长的转换动态
Transitional Dynamics of the Saving Rate and Economic Growth
摘要：
我们使用1960-2017年期间的130个国家的面板来估计人均国内生产总值增长率与国民储蓄率增长率之间的关系。我们发现，人均国内生产总值的增长增加（减少）的国民储蓄率的增长率在穷国（富国），和一个较高的信贷占GDP的比例降低国民储蓄率以及国民储蓄率的收入弹性。本文建立了一个具有信贷约束的模型，通过企业家在集约型和粗放型边际的储蓄行为来解释增长与储蓄的关系。我们进一步提出支持我们的理论研究结果的证据，利用跨国时间序列数据的新企业注册的数量和企业储蓄率。
英文摘要：
We estimate the relationship between GDP per capita growth and the growth rate of the national savings rate using a panel of 130 countries over the period 1960-2017. We find that GDP per capita growth increases (decreases) the growth rate of the national savings rate in poor countries (rich countries), and a higher credit-to-GDP ratio decreases the national savings rate as well as the income elasticity of the national savings rate. We develop a model with a credit constraint to explain the growth-saving relationship by the saving behavior of entrepreneurs at both the intensive and extensive margins. We further present supporting evidence for our theoretical findings by utilizing cross-country time series data of the number of new businesses registered and the corporate savings rate.
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