In the past two decades, the field of applied finance has tremendously benefited from graph theory. As a result, novel methods ranging from asset network estimation to hierarchical asset selection and portfolio allocation are now part of practitioners' toolboxes. In this paper, we investigate the fundamental problem of learning undirected graphical models under Laplacian structural constraints from the point of view of financial market times series data. In particular, we present natural justifications, supported by empirical evidence, for the usage of the Laplacian matrix as a model for the precision matrix of financial assets, while also establishing a direct link that reveals how Laplacian constraints are coupled to meaningful physical interpretations related to the market index factor and to conditional correlations between stocks. Those interpretations lead to a set of guidelines that practitioners should be aware of when estimating graphs in financial markets. In addition, we design numerical algorithms based on the alternating direction method of multipliers to learn undirected, weighted graphs that take into account stylized facts that are intrinsic to financial data such as heavy tails and modularity. We illustrate how to leverage the learned graphs into practical scenarios such as stock time series clustering and foreign exchange network estimation. The proposed graph learning algorithms outperform the state-of-the-art methods in an extensive set of practical experiments. Furthermore, we obtain theoretical and empirical convergence results for the proposed algorithms. Along with the developed methodologies for graph learning in financial markets, we release an R package, called fingraph, accommodating the code and data to obtain all the experimental results.
The financial market trend forecasting method is emerging as a hot topic in financial markets today. Many challenges still currently remain, and various researches related thereto have been actively conducted. Especially, recent research of neural network-based financial market trend prediction has attracted much attention. However, previous researches do not deal with the financial market forecasting method based on LSTM which has good performance in time series data. There is also a lack of comparative analysis in the performance of neural network-based prediction techniques and traditional …
Multiresolution analysis has applications across many disciplines in the study of complex systems and their dynamics. Financial markets are among the most complex entities in our environment, yet mainstream quantitative models operate at predetermined scale, rely on linear correlation measures, and struggle to recognize non-linear or causal structures. In this paper, we combine neural networks known to capture non-linear associations with a multiscale decomposition to facilitate a better understanding of financial market data substructures. Quantization keeps our decompositions calibrated to m…
LICEF Research Center, Université TÉLUQ（魁北克大学远程教育大学LICEF研究中心）；LORIA, Université de Lorraine（洛林大学洛林计算机科学及其应用实验室）；Université de Sherbrooke（舍布鲁克大学）；Laplace Insights（拉普拉斯洞察公司）
This paper scrutinizes a database of over 4900 YouTube videos to characterize financial market coverage. Financial market coverage generates a large number of videos. Therefore, watching these videos to derive actionable insights could be challenging and complex. In this paper, we leverage Whisper, a speech-to-text model from OpenAI, to generate a text corpus of market coverage videos from Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance. We employ natural language processing to extract insights regarding language use from the market coverage. Moreover, we examine the prominent presence of trending topics and thei…
Modern evolvements of the technologies have been leading to a profound influence on the financial market. The introduction of constituents like Exchange-Traded Funds, and the wide-use of advanced technologies such as algorithmic trading, results in a boom of the data which provides more opportunities to reveal deeper insights. However, traditional statistical methods always suffer from the high-dimensional, high-correlation, and time-varying instinct of the financial data. In this dissertation, we focus on developing techniques to stress these difficulties. With the proposed methodologies, we …
University of Massachusetts Lowell（马萨诸塞大学洛厄尔分校）；Soochow University（苏州大学）
It is a challenging task to predict financial markets. The complexity of this task is mainly due to the interaction between financial markets and market participants, who are not able to keep rational all the time, and often affected by emotions such as fear and ecstasy. Based on the state-of-the-art approach particularly for financial market predictions, a hybrid convolutional LSTM Based variational sequence-to-sequence model with attention (CLVSA), we propose a novel deep learning approach, named dual-CLVSA, to predict financial market movement with both trading data and the corresponding so…
University of Massachusetts Lowell（马萨诸塞大学洛厄尔分校）；GRC Capital LLC（GRC资本有限责任公司）
Financial markets are difficult to predict due to its complex systems dynamics. Although there have been some recent studies that use machine learning techniques for financial markets prediction, they do not offer satisfactory performance on financial returns. We propose a novel one-dimensional convolutional neural networks (CNN) model to predict financial market movement. The customized one-dimensional convolutional layers scan financial trading data through time, while different types of data, such as prices and volume, share parameters (kernels) with each other. Our model automatically extr…
Financial markets are of much interest to researchers due to their dynamic and stochastic nature. With their relations to world populations, global economies and asset valuations, understanding, identifying and forecasting trends and regimes are highly important. Attempts have been made to forecast market trends by employing machine learning methodologies, while statistical techniques have been the primary methods used in developing market regime switching models used for trading and hedging. In this paper we present a novel framework for the detection of regime switches within the US financia…
HC Financial Service Group（HC金融服务集团）；HC Research（HC研究院）
Financial fraud detection is one of the core technological assets of Fintech companies. It saves tens of millions of money fro m Chinese Fintech companies since the bad loan rate is more than 10%. HC Financial Service Group is the 3rd largest company in the Chinese P2P financial market. In this paper we illustrate how we tackle the fraud detection problem at HC Financial. We utilize two powerful workhorses in the machine learning field - random forest and gradient boosting decision tree to detect fraudulent users . We demonstrate that by carefully select features and tune model parameters , we…
Using virtual stock markets with artificial interacting software investors, aka agent-based models (ABMs), we present a method to reverse engineer real-world financial time series. We model financial markets as made of a large number of interacting boundedly rational agents. By optimizing the similarity between the actual data and that generated by the reconstructed virtual stock market, we obtain parameters and strategies, which reveal some of the inner workings of the target stock market. We validate our approach by out-of-sample predictions of directional moves of the Nasdaq Composite Index…
BITS Pilani University（pilani大学）；K.K. Birla Goa Campus（K.K.比尔拉果阿校区）；ISI Calcutta（加尔各答印度统计研究所）
In this paper we explore the usage of deep reinforcement learning algorithms to automatically generate consistently profitable, robust, uncorrelated trading signals in any general financial market. In order to do this, we present a novel Markov decision process (MDP) model to capture the financial trading markets. We review and propose various modifications to existing approaches and explore different techniques like the usage of technical indicators, to succinctly capture the market dynamics to model the markets. We then go on to use deep reinforcement learning to enable the agent (the algori…
Given financial data from popular sites like Yahoo and the London Exchange, the presented paper attempts to model and predict stocks that can be considered "good investments". Stocks are characterized by 125 features ranging from gross domestic product to EDIBTA, and are labeled by discrepancies between stock and market price returns. An artificial neural network (Self-Organizing Map) is fitted to train on more than a million data points to predict "good investments" given testing stocks from 2013 and after.
Newcastle University（纽卡斯尔大学）；University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学）
Financial markets are a source of non-stationary multidimensional time series which has been drawing attention for decades. Each financial instrument has its specific changing-over-time properties, making its analysis a complex task. Hence, improvement of understanding and development of more informative, generalisable market representations are essential for the successful operation in financial markets, including risk assessment, diversification, trading, and order execution. In this study, we propose a volume-price-based market representation for making financial time series more suitable f…
