未来β衰变实验对中微子质量标度和有序性敏感性的贝叶斯分析
Bayesian Analysis of a Future Beta Decay Experiment's Sensitivity to Neutrino Mass Scale and Ordering
摘要：
贝叶斯建模技术使敏感性分析，包括详细的预期，对未来的实验。基于模型的方法还允许人们通过校准（或测量）报告某些结果时产生的后果来评估推断和预测结果。我们提出了校准连续和离散参数的实验的灵敏度的预测程序。使用这些程序和一个新的贝叶斯模型的$β$ -衰变谱，我们评估了一个高精度的$β$ -衰变实验的灵敏度中微子质量尺度和订购，一个假设的设计方案。我们发现，这样的实验可以测量电子加权中微子质量在$\sim40\,$ meV的1年后（90 $\%$的可信度）。中微子质量$>500\,$ meV可以在$\approx5\,$ meV内测量。仅使用$β$ -衰变和外部反应堆中微子数据，我们发现，下一代$β$ -衰变实验可能会限制使用双中微子光谱模型分析的质量排序。通过校准质量排序结果，我们确定了报告标准，可以调整，以抑制虚假的订购索赔。在某些情况下，双中微子分析可以揭示质量排序是颠倒的，这是传统的单中微子分析方法无法获得的结果。
英文摘要：
Bayesian modeling techniques enable sensitivity analyses that incorporate detailed expectations regarding future experiments. A model-based approach also allows one to evaluate inferences and predicted outcomes, by calibrating (or measuring) the consequences incurred when certain results are reported. We present procedures for calibrating predictions of an experiment's sensitivity to both continuous and discrete parameters. Using these procedures and a new Bayesian model of the $β$-decay spectrum, we assess a high-precision $β$-decay experiment's sensitivity to the neutrino mass scale and ordering, for one assumed design scenario. We find that such an experiment could measure the electron-weighted neutrino mass within $\sim40\,$meV after 1 year (90$\%$ credibility). Neutrino masses $>500\,$meV could be measured within $\approx5\,$meV. Using only $β$-decay and external reactor neutrino data, we find that next-generation $β$-decay experiments could potentially constrain the mass ordering using a two-neutrino spectral model analysis. By calibrating mass ordering results, we identify reporting criteria that can be tuned to suppress false ordering claims. In some cases, a two-neutrino analysis can reveal that the mass ordering is inverted, an unobtainable result for the traditional one-neutrino analysis approach.
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