Multimodal regression estimation methods are introduced for regression models involving circular response and/or covariate. The regression estimators are based on the maximization of the conditional densities of the response variable over the covariate. Conditional versions of the mean shift and the circular mean shift algorithms are used to obtain the regression estimators. The asymptotic properties of the estimators are studied and the problem of bandwidth selection is discussed.
Nonparametric estimators of a regression function with circular response and Rd-valued predictor are considered in this work. Local polynomial type estimators are proposed and studied. Expressions for their asymptotic biases and variances are derived, and some guidelines to select asymptotically local optimal bandwidth matrices are also given. The finite sample behavior of the proposed estimators is assessed through simulations and their performance is also illustrated with a real data set.
We introduce nonparametric tests of independence for bivariate circular data based on trigonometric moments. Our contributions lie in (i) proposing nonparametric tests that are locally and asymptotically optimal against bivariate cosine von Mises alternatives and (ii) extending these tests, via the empirical characteristic function, to obtain consistent tests against broader sets of alternatives, eventually being omnibus. We thus provide a collection of trigonometric-based tests of varying generality and known optimalities. The large-sample behaviours of the tests under the null and alternativ…
Circular time series has received relatively little attention in statistics and modeling complex circular time series using the state space approach is non-existent in the literature. In this article we introduce a flexible Bayesian nonparametric approach to state space modeling of observed circular time series where even the latent states are circular random variables. Crucially, we assume that the forms of both observational and evolutionary functions, both of which are circular in nature, are unknown and time-varying. We model these unknown circular functions by appropriate wrapped Gaussian…
State space models are well-known for their versatility in modeling dynamic systems that arise in various scientific disciplines. Although parametric state space models are well studied, nonparametric approaches are much less explored in comparison. In this article we propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric approach to state space modeling assuming that both the observational and evolutionary functions are unknown and are varying with time; crucially, we assume that the unknown evolutionary equation describes dynamic evolution of some latent circular random variable. Based on appropriate kernel…
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；The Alan Turing Institute（艾伦·图灵研究所）
Increasingly complex datasets pose a number of challenges for Bayesian inference. Conventional posterior sampling based on Markov chain Monte Carlo can be too computationally intensive, is serial in nature and mixes poorly between posterior modes. Further, all models are misspecified, which brings into question the validity of the conventional Bayesian update. We present a scalable Bayesian nonparametric learning routine that enables posterior sampling through the optimization of suitably randomized objective functions. A Dirichlet process prior on the unknown data distribution accounts for mo…
Testing procedures for assessing a parametric regression model with circular response and $\mathbb{R}^d$-valued covariate are proposed and analyzed in this work both for independent and for spatially correlated data. The test statistics are based on a circular distance comparing a (non-smoothed or smoothed) parametric circular estimator and a nonparametric one. Properly designed bootstrap procedures for calibrating the tests in practice are also presented. Finite sample performance of the tests in different scenarios with independent and spatially correlated samples, is analyzed by simulations…
We continue studies of the uncertainty quantification problem in emission tomographies such as PET or SPECT when additional multimodal data (e.g., anatomical MRI images) are available. To solve the aforementioned problem we adapt the recently proposed nonparametric posterior learning technique to the context of Poisson-type data in emission tomography. Using this approach we derive sampling algorithms which are trivially parallelizable, scalable and very easy to implement. In addition, we prove conditional consistency and tightness for the distribution of produced samples in the small noise li…
We introduce a density basis of the trigonometric polynomials that is suitable to mixture modelling. Statistical and geometric properties are derived, suggesting it as a circular analogue to the Bernstein polynomial densities. Nonparametric priors are constructed using this basis and a simulation study shows that the use of the resulting Bayes estimator may provide gains over comparable circular density estimators previously suggested in the literature. From a theoretical point of view, we propose a general prior specification framework for density estimation on compact metric space using siev…
Changes on temperature patterns, on a local scale, are perceived by individuals as the most direct indicators of global warming and climate change. As a specific example, for an Atlantic climate location, spring and fall seasons should present a mild transition between winter and summer, and summer and winter, respectively. By observing daily temperature curves along time, being each curve attached to a certain calendar day, a regression model for these variables (temperature curve as covariate and calendar day as response) would be useful for modeling their relation for a certain period. In a…
Linear regression is a fundamental and popular statistical method. There are various kinds of linear regression, such as mean regression and quantile regression. In this paper, we propose a new one called distribution regression, which allows broad-spectrum of the error distribution in the linear regression. Our method uses nonparametric technique to estimate regression parameters. Our studies indicate that our method provides a better alternative than mean regression and quantile regression under many settings, particularly for asymmetrical heavy-tailed distribution or multimodal distribution…
The Cardioid distribution is a relevant model for circular data. However, this model is not suitable for scenarios were there is asymmetry or multimodality. In order to overcome this gap, an extended Cardioid model is proposed, which is called Exponentiated Cardioid (EC) distribution. Besides, some of its properties are derived, such as trigonometric moments, kurtosis and skewness. A discussion about the modality and and expressions for the quantiles through approximations of the studied model are also presented. To fit the EC model, two estimation methods are presented based on maximum likeli…
