Spatial-temporal data forecasting of traffic flow is a challenging task because of complicated spatial dependencies and dynamical trends of temporal pattern between different roads. Existing frameworks typically utilize given spatial adjacency graph and sophisticated mechanisms for modeling spatial and temporal correlations. However, limited representations of given spatial graph structure with incomplete adjacent connections may restrict effective spatial-temporal dependencies learning of those models. To overcome those limitations, our paper proposes Spatial-Temporal Fusion Graph Neural Networks (STFGNN) for traffic flow forecasting. SFTGNN could effectively learn hidden spatial-temporal dependencies by a novel fusion operation of various spatial and temporal graphs, which is generated by a data-driven method. Meanwhile, by integrating this fusion graph module and a novel gated convolution module into a unified layer, SFTGNN could handle long sequences. Experimental results on several public traffic datasets demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance consistently than other baselines.
Traffic forecasting is important for the success of intelligent transportation systems. Deep learning models, including convolution neural networks and recurrent neural networks, have been extensively applied in traffic forecasting problems to model spatial and temporal dependencies. In recent years, to model the graph structures in transportation systems as well as contextual information, graph neural networks have been introduced and have achieved state-of-the-art performance in a series of traffic forecasting problems. In this survey, we review the rapidly growing body of research using dif…
University of Hong Kong（香港大学）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；City University of Hong Kong（香港城市大学）；The Hong Kong Polytechnic University（香港理工大学）
Accurate real-time traffic forecast is critical for intelligent transportation systems (ITS) and it serves as the cornerstone of various smart mobility applications. Though this research area is dominated by deep learning, recent studies indicate that the accuracy improvement by developing new model structures is becoming marginal. Instead, we envision that the improvement can be achieved by transferring the "forecasting-related knowledge" across cities with different data distributions and network topologies. To this end, this paper aims to propose a novel transferable traffic forecasting fra…
Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil（国家土木工程实验室）；INESC-ID；Instituto Superior Técnico, University of Lisbon（里斯本大学高等技术学院）
The significant increase in world population and urbanisation has brought several important challenges, in particular regarding the sustainability, maintenance and planning of urban mobility. At the same time, the exponential increase of computing capability and of available sensor and location data have offered the potential for innovative solutions to these challenges. In this work, we focus on the challenge of traffic forecasting and review the recent development and application of graph neural networks (GNN) to this problem. GNNs are a class of deep learning methods that directly process t…
Traffic forecasting has attracted widespread attention recently. In reality, traffic data usually contains missing values due to sensor or communication errors. The Spatio-temporal feature in traffic data brings more challenges for processing such missing values, for which the classic techniques (e.g., data imputations) are limited: 1) in temporal axis, the values can be randomly or consecutively missing; 2) in spatial axis, the missing values can happen on one single sensor or on multiple sensors simultaneously. Recent models powered by Graph Neural Networks achieved satisfying performance on…
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）；Argonne National Laboratory（阿贡国家实验室）；Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory（劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室）
Accurate traffic forecasting is vital to an intelligent transportation system. Although many deep learning models have achieved state-of-art performance for short-term traffic forecasting of up to 1 hour, long-term traffic forecasting that spans multiple hours remains a major challenge. Moreover, most of the existing deep learning traffic forecasting models are black box, presenting additional challenges related to explainability and interpretability. We develop Graph Pyramid Autoformer (X-GPA), an explainable attention-based spatial-temporal graph neural network that uses a novel pyramid auto…
University of Science and Technology of China（中国科学技术大学）；Huawei Noah’s Ark Lab（华为诺亚方舟实验室）
In this technical report, we present our solutions to the Traffic4cast 2022 core challenge and extended challenge. In this competition, the participants are required to predict the traffic states for the future 15-minute based on the vehicle counter data in the previous hour. Compared to other competitions in the same series, this year focuses on the prediction of different data sources and sparse vertex-to-edge generalization. To address these issues, we introduce the Transposed Variational Auto-encoder (TVAE) model to reconstruct the missing data and Graph Attention Networks (GAT) to strengt…
How does the Performance of the Data-driven Traffic Flow Forecasting Models deteriorate with Increasing Forecasting Horizon? An Extensive Approach Considering Statistical, Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models
Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)（孟加拉国工程技术大学）
FLEXIBLE: Forecasting Cellular Traffic by Leveraging Explicit Inductive Graph-Based Learning
Orange Innovation（奥兰治创新公司）；Nantes University（南特大学）；École Centrale Nantes（南特中央理工学院）；IMT Atlantique（大西洋电信与技术学院）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；INRIA（法国国家信息与自动化研究所）；LS2N（南特数字科学实验室）；University of Luxembourg（卢森堡大学）；SnT（卢森堡大学安全、可靠性和信任中心）
With the rapid growth of traffic sensors deployed, a massive amount of traffic flow data are collected, revealing the long-term evolution of traffic flows and the gradual expansion of traffic networks. How to accurately forecasting these traffic flow attracts the attention of researchers as it is of great significance for improving the efficiency of transportation systems. However, existing methods mainly focus on the spatial-temporal correlation of static networks, leaving the problem of efficiently learning models on networks with expansion and evolving patterns less studied. To tackle this …
Traffic forecasting is a core element of intelligent traffic monitoring system. Approaches based on graph neural networks have been widely used in this task to effectively capture spatial and temporal dependencies of road networks. However, these approaches can not effectively define the complicated network topology. Besides, their cascade network structures have limitations in transmitting distinct features in the time and space dimensions. In this paper, we propose a Multi-adaptive Spatiotemporal-flow Graph Neural Network (MAF-GNN) for traffic speed forecasting. MAF-GNN introduces an effecti…
Comparative Analysis of Deep Learning Models for Real-World ISP Network Traffic Forecasting
Czech Technical University in Prague（布拉格捷克技术大学）；Faculty of Information Technology（信息技术学院）；Brno University of Technology（布尔诺理工大学）；CESNET, a.l.e.（CESNET公司）
Northeastern University（东北大学）；Technical University of Munich（慕尼黑工业大学）
Short-term traffic forecasting is an extensively studied topic in the field of intelligent transportation system. However, most existing forecasting systems are limited by the requirement of real-time probe vehicle data because of their formulation as a time series forecasting problem. Towards this issue, the NeurIPS 2022 Traffic4cast challenge is dedicated to predicting the citywide traffic states with publicly available sparse loop count data. This technical report introduces our second-place winning solution to the extended challenge of ETA prediction. We present a similarity-based feature …
Traffic forecasting has emerged as a core component of intelligent transportation systems. However, timely accurate traffic forecasting, especially long-term forecasting, still remains an open challenge due to the highly nonlinear and dynamic spatial-temporal dependencies of traffic flows. In this paper, we propose a novel paradigm of Spatial-Temporal Transformer Networks (STTNs) that leverages dynamical directed spatial dependencies and long-range temporal dependencies to improve the accuracy of long-term traffic forecasting. Specifically, we present a new variant of graph neural networks, na…
HUTFormer: Hierarchical U-Net Transformer for Long-Term Traffic Forecasting
Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院计算技术研究所）；School of Computer Science and Technology, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学计算机科学与技术学院）；School of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China（电子科技大学计算机科学与工程学院）；Department of Planning, Design, and Technology of Architecture, Sapienza University of Rome（罗马大学建筑规划、设计与技术系）；School of Vehicle and Mobility, Tsinghua University（清华大学车辆与移动性学院）
Argonne National Laboratory（阿贡国家实验室）；Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory（劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室）
Deep-learning-based data-driven forecasting methods have produced impressive results for traffic forecasting. A major limitation of these methods, however, is that they provide forecasts without estimates of uncertainty, which are critical for real-time deployments. We focus on a diffusion convolutional recurrent neural network (DCRNN), a state-of-the-art method for short-term traffic forecasting. We develop a scalable deep ensemble approach to quantify uncertainties for DCRNN. Our approach uses a scalable Bayesian optimization method to perform hyperparameter optimization, selects a set of hi…
A novel predictor for traffic flow forecasting, namely spatio-temporal Bayesian network predictor, is proposed. Unlike existing methods, our approach incorporates all the spatial and temporal information available in a transportation network to carry our traffic flow forecasting of the current site. The Pearson correlation coefficient is adopted to rank the input variables (traffic flows) for prediction, and the best-first strategy is employed to select a subset as the cause nodes of a Bayesian network. Given the derived cause nodes and the corresponding effect node in the spatio-temporal Baye…
TECNALIA, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA)（TECNALIA，巴斯克研究与技术联盟（BRTA））；University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU)（巴斯克大学（UPV/EHU））
Deep Learning methods have been proven to be flexible to model complex phenomena. This has also been the case of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), in which several areas such as vehicular perception and traffic analysis have widely embraced Deep Learning as a core modeling technology. Particularly in short-term traffic forecasting, the capability of Deep Learning to deliver good results has generated a prevalent inertia towards using Deep Learning models, without examining in depth their benefits and downsides. This paper focuses on critically analyzing the state of the art in what ref…
To capture spatial relationships and temporal dynamics in traffic data, spatio-temporal models for traffic forecasting have drawn significant attention in recent years. Most of the recent works employed graph neural networks(GNN) with multiple layers to capture the spatial dependency. However, road junctions with different hop-distance can carry distinct traffic information which should be exploited separately but existing multi-layer GNNs are incompetent to discriminate between their impact. Again, to capture the temporal interrelationship, recurrent neural networks are common in state-of-the…
Purpose: Traffic volume in empty container depots has been highly volatile due to external factors. Forecasting the expected container truck traffic along with having a dynamic module to foresee the future workload plays a critical role in improving the work efficiency. This paper studies the relevant literature and designs a forecasting model addressing the aforementioned issues. Methodology: The paper develops a forecasting model to predict hourly work and traffic volume of container trucks in an empty container depot using a Bayesian Neural Network based model. Furthermore, the paper experi…
Argonne National Laboratory（阿贡国家实验室）；Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory（劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室）
Wide area networking infrastructures (WANs), particularly science and research WANs, are the backbone for moving large volumes of scientific data between experimental facilities and data centers. With demands growing at exponential rates, these networks are struggling to cope with large data volumes, real-time responses, and overall network performance. Network operators are increasingly looking for innovative ways to manage the limited underlying network resources. Forecasting network traffic is a critical capability for proactive resource management, congestion mitigation, and dedicated tran…
Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Traffic Flow using Wavelet-based Temporal Attention
Sorbonne University（索邦大学）；Indian Institute of Science, Education and Research, Kolkata（印度科学教育与研究学院（加尔各答））；International Institute of Information Technology, Bangalore（班加罗尔国际信息技术学院）
National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）；University of Hong Kong（香港大学）；Nanyang Technological University（南洋理工大学）
Spatio-temporal graph neural networks (STGNN) have become the most popular solution to traffic forecasting. While successful, they rely on the message passing scheme of GNNs to establish spatial dependencies between nodes, and thus inevitably inherit GNNs' notorious inefficiency. Given these facts, in this paper, we propose an embarrassingly simple yet remarkably effective spatio-temporal learning approach, entitled SimST. Specifically, SimST approximates the efficacies of GNNs by two spatial learning techniques, which respectively model local and global spatial correlations. Moreover, SimST c…
Argonne National Laboratory（阿贡国家实验室）；Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory（劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室）
Highway traffic modeling and forecasting approaches are critical for intelligent transportation systems. Recently, deep-learning-based traffic forecasting methods have emerged as state of the art for a wide range of traffic forecasting tasks. However, these methods require a large amount of training data, which needs to be collected over a significant period of time. This can present a number of challenges for the development and deployment of data-driven learning methods for highway networks that suffer from lack of historical data. A promising approach to address this issue is transfer learn…
Spatial-temporal forecasting has attracted tremendous attention in a wide range of applications, and traffic flow prediction is a canonical and typical example. The complex and long-range spatial-temporal correlations of traffic flow bring it to a most intractable challenge. Existing works typically utilize shallow graph convolution networks (GNNs) and temporal extracting modules to model spatial and temporal dependencies respectively. However, the representation ability of such models is limited due to: (1) shallow GNNs are incapable to capture long-range spatial correlations, (2) only spatia…
UNSW（新南威尔士大学）；University of Technology Sydney（悉尼科技大学）；Griffith University（格里菲斯大学）
Modeling complex spatial and temporal correlations in the correlated time series data is indispensable for understanding the traffic dynamics and predicting the future status of an evolving traffic system. Recent works focus on designing complicated graph neural network architectures to capture shared patterns with the help of pre-defined graphs. In this paper, we argue that learning node-specific patterns is essential for traffic forecasting while the pre-defined graph is avoidable. To this end, we propose two adaptive modules for enhancing Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) with new capabilit…
University of Science and Technology of China（中国科学技术大学）；University of Electronic Science and Technology of China（电子科技大学）
Real-time traffic accident forecasting is increasingly important for public safety and urban management (e.g., real-time safe route planning and emergency response deployment). Previous works on accident forecasting are often performed on hour levels, utilizing existed neural networks with static region-wise correlations taken into account. However, it is still challenging when the granularity of forecasting step improves as the highly dynamic nature of road network and inherent rareness of accident records in one training sample, which leads to biased results and zero-inflated issue. In this …
University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；Beihang University（北京航空航天大学）；STAR Lab（STAR实验室）
With accurate and timely traffic forecasting, the impacted traffic conditions can be predicted in advance to guide agencies and residents to respond to changes in traffic patterns appropriately. However, existing works on traffic forecasting mainly relied on historical traffic patterns confining to short-term prediction, under 1 hour, for instance. To better manage future roadway capacity and accommodate social and human impacts, it is crucial to propose a flexible and comprehensive framework to predict physical-aware long-term traffic conditions for public users and transportation agencies. I…
Traffic forecasting is essential for the traffic construction of smart cities in the new era. However, traffic data's complex spatial and temporal dependencies make traffic forecasting extremely challenging. Most existing traffic forecasting methods rely on the predefined adjacency matrix to model the Spatio-temporal dependencies. Nevertheless, the road traffic state is highly real-time, so the adjacency matrix should change dynamically with time. This article presents a new Multi-Spatio-temporal Fusion Graph Recurrent Network (MSTFGRN) to address the issues above. The network proposes a data-…
TECNALIA（泰克纳利亚）；Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA)（巴斯克研究与技术联盟）；University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU)（巴斯克大学）
This work aims at unveiling the potential of Transfer Learning (TL) for developing a traffic flow forecasting model in scenarios of absent data. Knowledge transfer from high-quality predictive models becomes feasible under the TL paradigm, enabling the generation of new proper models with few data. In order to explore this capability, we identify three different levels of data absent scenarios, where TL techniques are applied among Deep Learning (DL) methods for traffic forecasting. Then, traditional batch learning is compared against TL based models using real traffic flow data, collected by …
China Mobile Research Institute（中国移动研究院）；Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications（北京邮电大学）
Mobile network traffic forecasting is one of the key functions in daily network operation. A commercial mobile network is large, heterogeneous, complex and dynamic. These intrinsic features make mobile network traffic forecasting far from being solved even with recent advanced algorithms such as graph convolutional network-based prediction approaches and various attention mechanisms, which have been proved successful in vehicle traffic forecasting. In this paper, we cast the problem as a spatial-temporal sequence prediction task. We propose a novel deep learning network architecture, Adaptive …
Traffic flow forecasting is challenging due to the intricate spatio-temporal correlations in traffic flow data. Existing Transformer-based methods usually treat traffic flow forecasting as multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting. However, too many sensors can cause a vector with a dimension greater than 800, which is difficult to process without information loss. In addition, these methods design complex mechanisms to capture spatial dependencies in MTS, resulting in slow forecasting speed. To solve the abovementioned problems, we propose a Fast Pure Transformer Network (FPTN) in this paper…
Traffic flow forecasting on graphs has real-world applications in many fields, such as transportation system and computer networks. Traffic forecasting can be highly challenging due to complex spatial-temporal correlations and non-linear traffic patterns. Existing works mostly model such spatial-temporal dependencies by considering spatial correlations and temporal correlations separately and fail to model the direct spatial-temporal correlations. Inspired by the recent success of transformers in the graph domain, in this paper, we propose to directly model the cross-spatial-temporal correlati…
